I've been anticipating the beginning of June as I've been curious to see how the EOSIO 1.0 launch would affect the price of said currency and I've been quite pleased with the results. I was pretty sure this would spark a rally for several reasons...
- EOS held on many exchanges frozen during the transition--some holders cannot sell into a rally
- Some people may have sold prior to June 1 and are buying back in so they don't have to undergo the process of claiming tokens
- Let's face it...news is often what drives price, even if everyone knows some event is coming
- Day traders taking advantage of hype / volatility shortly after the launch
Well June 3rd is upon us and it looks like my suspicion about an EOS price rally were valid though I cannot say for sure exactly the reasons we're seeing this price spike...this is all merely speculation on my part and I'm not an expert on all things crypto by any means.
For now let's have a look at the charts, shall we? First let's look at a longer term view--the daily chart going back a few months...
There are some obvious bullish developments on this chart as of this weekend
- The huge bullish engulfing candle on June 2nd
- Daily RSI jumped from the 40's up to 60 in a couple of days--so it's still not that close to being overbought on a longer term time frame
- We're back above the middle AND the top bollinger band (in 2 days) after languishing below the middle BB since mid May
- Nice big green volume bar on June 2nd
And it looks like the price is preparing to do battle with a historically solid level of resistance around $15.40. Let's zoom in a bit to see the details of the rally so far, shall we? Let's go to the 30 minute chart...
Since early on June 2nd, the price has spiked quickly from the 12's to the 14's and even above $15 at time and is putting in higher lows on the shorter time frame charts. There's a pretty clear bull pennant that's formed the past couple of days which I anticipate we will see a breakout from fairly soon as the lows are getting closer to that $15.40ish resistance level we saw on the daily chart that the price has a history with going back a few months.
It's nice seeing the rally take a breather and things consolidating in this region as it allowed the shorter term RSI to cool off a bit. The RSI on the 30 min chart got well into the 80's on June 2nd and needed to reset a bit, which it has as on this chart we dropped back around 50 and increased to near 60 (at the time of this writing). I'm sure some savvy day traders took advantage of the volatility in this top gainer for the day of June 2nd and that's part of what we're seeing in terms of price movement on the chart.
The higher lows and the repeated testing of that $15.40 resistance level will hopefully lead to a strong, decisive break above that level and the formation of the "pole" of another bull pennant. That's what I'd like to see anyway.
As far as my position in EOS goes, I own a decent sized stake but wish I'd held every single bit that I originally did. Lesson learned. On a positive note--I didn't have to go through the process of claiming the tokens as I hold my EOS on a couple of exchanges (yes I know this is arguably a stupid thing to do--keeping cryptos held in a wallet on an exchange).
I realize I don't truly "own" the tokens...the exchanges do. But they're still worth the same amount on the open market as claimed tokens in a personal wallet. There is the risk that if said exchange weren't on the up and up I could be out some money if they don't actually have the number of tokens to back what investors are holding on the exchange.
There's multiple arguments against holding cryptos on an exchange and I won't go into those right now as it strays from the point of my post...but it's easier for me and I know I'm not the only one who leaves their cryptos in the hands of exchanges.
All wallet discussions aside, I'm pretty pleased with the rally this weekend and I hope to see some continuation in the near and long term. I won't speculate how high the price could go, but I sure do hope EOS gives BCash and maybe eventually XRP a run for it in terms of market cap.
It's also nice to see most everything green this weekend (including our beloved Steem, which I bought about 100 of Friday) and I can't help but wonder if this event was a major contributing factor to the short term sentiment in the overall crypto markets.
So congrats to all you EOS HODLers / investors. I can't wait to see what the future holds for this token and subsequently all of the investors who got in early.
DISCLAIMER: I am not nor do I claim to be a financial advisor. Do not make investment decisions based upon my blog material as it is merely my opinion / speculation / educated guesswork at best. Always do your own research before putting money into any stock, commodity, derivative, or crypto as you always assume some risk in playing the markets, especially the volatile crypto markets. Play it smart and play it safe if you choose to play.