I'm optimistic about 2023 since it seems consensus that things will be bad. I agree on the recession, its just everyone also sees one coming so I think it will be shallow due in part to the excess savings still in the system and continued tight labor market (although some of that is just labor hoarding). IMO stocks have priced most of this in and generally bottom well before a recession ends, so maybe a small leg to go, yet again this became consensus over the past week or so haha. That said it doesn't mean up form here, just I think most of the bearishness has taken hold. To be clear I bought some crypto yesterday (unfortunately on the higher end of the range as my limit order triggered at the initial selloff). I think I've resigned to think I'm not going to catch a bottom, so these prices will look great in a few months.
I've been thinking constantly of how things felt in 2018, even though I was only partially involved in crypto at the time. Its always fascinating to think how people feel at bottoms, especially when things are going well and you look back on "why didnt I buy here?", well maybe it feels like this.. terrible hah