Disclaimer
The following information is not financial investment advice. Please do your own research before making investment decisions.
Current Impression of Crypto Sentiment
- hopped on coinmarketcap today; saw we are at $283 Billion total marketcap
- BTC $6, 578.50; ETH under $500; NEO is $42.16; and the market is looking extremely bearish overall
- tether (USDT) has climbed to rank 12 on top 20 marketcap coins and has more than HALF the 24 volume of bitcoin (more than ethereum by almost $1 billion)
- cryptotwitter is filled with fear, uncertainty, and clearly despair; otherwise known as FUD
- checking out some of the telegram and discord chatrooms, I get the same feeling from people, whether people are posting memes or quite sad/fearful
- many people state they have already exited majority of their positions to fiat or something like tether
- random people are calling this the death of crypto; others are saying BTC is headed to $3-4K or even lower, including more respected TA guys
Thoughts on What has been Happening Fundamentally
- big institutional funds continue to announce that they are either entering crypto, looking to enter, or have already entered; they are looking to buy while public sells fearfully, so they can get in cheap
- many governments continue to announce they will begin supporting blockchain tech innovation and markets, especially smaller governments
- larger governments making official announcements that are actually quite bullish in terms of their opinion on future of the cryptospace (e.g. CFTC's very bullish, most recent comments; the International Monetary Fund just released a short video explaining the advent of cryptocurrency and it's importance, they were FUDing it not that long ago)
- governments have been working to figure out regulation; making some progress; still remains uncertain, including in USA
- some blockchain projects have been actually developing and following through on their promises/roadmap; I believe actual organic use of certain projects is starting to happen; for every 10 vaporware projects, there is probably 1 project that has serious intentions, some of which have made significant progress
- developer community continues to grow and so does the talent in blockchain; talent from traditional markets IS leaving and joining crypto
- serious developers continue to work on core issues such as scaling and interoperability; others continue to work on frontend UI development to make crypto more accessible
Why is Price Plummeting if Fundamentals are looking ever better?
- we had a massive speculative bubble, especially during december of last year; it had to crash about as hard as the run up was; that's market cycle and a lot of promises were made by projects without actual adoption or progress yet
- organic growth is A LOT slower force than speculative, but it is much more stable and safe (there is still risk, of course)
- False/fake media and propaganda - there is a fairly strong presence of this in crypto; news articles and 'warnings' continue to get published warning about this or that that causes an irrational fear reaction that spreads virally, just about as fast and hard as FOMO does, maybe faster
- Why is it irrational? Because the community is reacting before there has been any sort of vetting of that news; they take it at face value; VERY often it is proved to be inaccurate, old, false, hyperbolized, or irrelevant; since a lot of the value has been built speculatively, the market can react harder, too
- The institutional funds and big whales who really believe in crypto and also have a lot of fiat available, have a strong incentive to support FUD in the short term so that they can buy in at lower prices
- You know what happened at the end of the dotcom crash decades ago? The retail investor (us) ran away from the market, dumping their shares, while institutional funds bought up all the shares they wanted of good projects they vetted, at ridiculously low prices; they made obscene money over time and the retail investors were left out because of irrational fear AND investing more than they could afford to lose
My Final Thoughts
- separate your investments in crypto and other areas from your emotions; never make a panicked decision
- if you invested more than you can afford to lose, take that as a hard lesson; can't tell you what to do now
- Bitcoin has been declared dead so many times since it's inception, it's just a meme now; many of the original biggest FUDers have now changed their public opinions, by the way
- pay attention to the coins you're interested in, over the coming weeks/months - you bought in much higher? if you have some fiat, you could average down your buy-in price by buying when it's cheaper; no one can tell you where the bottom is though (or the top)
- don't forget to live your life in the real world
- the future of crypto is VERY bright; if you believe in the tech's ability to revolutionize some or many areas of the world economy, you should not be going anywhere
- "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful." - Warren Buffet
- "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." - Baron Rothschild