Those who don't like to use their brain and don't like complicated articles -piss off.
Many people say we think too much...well, yes people indeed think too much. They could think much less, become free from circular thinking on the surface. Starring at charts, getting trapped in the carousel of thoughts... Think less, but when you use your brain make sure it's effective.
Here we go again: what happens to Bitcoins price?
the function is simple.
y is the price and x is the time to double up.
It is like Bitcoins chart with the time plotted the other way around. In the mathematical world, the system blows up. In finite time it goes to infinity.
Let's say we start with x= 0.5 month, 0.25 month, 0.125 month ...
- 1/0.5 = 2
- 1/0.25 = 4
- 1/0.125 = 8
So it gets bigger and bigger. This is why we see price increases so fast and this is why 20k is not far away. Or in the numbers of 2017:
[frx-twitter you see how it blows up? time gets shorter and shorter]
Well, if your smart you would say "pls LAUCH3D this is math! It only describes/quantifies the process, but this does not mean that the process will follow the function"
We should not forget, that the process of creating this pattern/bubble is driven by humans. Its a herd headed into one direction, increasingly accelerating the growth process. So there is a physical process going on. There is NO reason to assume that the price will go horizontal tomorrow. Either it keeps on sky-rocketing or it collapses.
The question is how homogeneous is the herd? Is this bubble like the bubble in 2017?
[Lens eyes of humans and cephalopods look very much the same, but evolutionary they emerged independently from each other ...]
One needs to qualify the participants in order to estimate what could happen. The order in homogeneous herds can be crashed by clapping in the hands. Imagine a herd only consisting of sheep, it's easy to crash the structure, they act very similarly and couple/synchronize fast. When there are sheep and cows and even some big bulls, you can clap, the sheep will run, the cows will look at you and the bulls will even run towards you. It is more stable when it is not a pure retailer market.
Its shown that in many crashes of organized complex systems, right before the crash, there is high synchronization. In epileptic seizures, right before the shock, brain cells are firing together like a stroboscope and knock out the person. (Sornette 2001)
Lets go back to Singularities
For x we will end at 0 and at the same time our function becomes infinite. One divided by zero is not defined. This does not mean that it is not possible.
[From Ute Kraus CC BY-SA 2.5]
Scientists don't know if either math does not describe reality very well or if reality has infinities ... A black hole is described as a time finite singularity.
But at least for markets, we can be sure that the whole setup becomes intrinsically unstable. Forming the bubble is like growing a baby: it demands energy in the form of attention, buyers, money it even consumes rationality! The higher it goes, the more irrational people get.
Crashes are not externally, they are intrinsic. The system matures toward high instability, ready to pop. Any external cause can trigger the crash.
Now is it rational to assume a crash-like pullback at 14k, 15k? Is it rational to assume a significant pullback at all? The answers are often purely based on the experience of the individual, they give answers in order to not look silly in hindsight falling for gamblers fallacy. People being too optimistic in the last rounds will try the pessimistic side, pessimists, if they were wrong, will try bullish optimism. Human brain-driven behavior is often not based on any evidence.
Sources:
Oscillatory finite-time singularities in Finance, population and rupture (Sornette et al 2001)
Financial bubbles: mechanisms and diagnostics (Sornette and Cauwels 2014)
Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises(Sornette 2001)
PS. When you choose censorship and short term comfortability you will have a hard life ahead. When accepting uncomfortable things (train hard, eat clean, learn hard stuff, don't be lazy, don't say what others want to hear) you will earn a comfortable life long term. My opinion.
"When we hit 5k my wife left me!!! Bliez Sir help muh family! should I buy back?"
