I actually expect both scenarios trying to play out, but not sure how it might look like
what fed seems to be trying to do is to hike rates within 2022 high enough which helps take inflation down, with target of 2%, they may take it to 6% or maybe 5%, who knows. impact of it will be higher unemployment figures, which fed presidents seems to be expecting and ready to be tolerating higher than whatever they have expectations are. But if fed has increased rates to 4% or higher, they will have some room to go down, that means start decreasing rates from there. print more money?? more relief packages for citizens with different conditions? industry level bail outs like they did in covid lockdown times? I mean just different name, same story of putting more money into circulation.
so, that might just do work for short term I guess, but for how long if that happens? and it'll not just be US, it will be US, EU, UK, Japan, China, AU, NZ or whatever other different country follows the same path as Fed/US. So, all over the same 2001/2008 story repeating of bail outs.
maybe this keeps happening for 2-5 more years and we see the same same old old recession fears then in 2025-2030s sometime??
so much moving parts and probabilities that anything is possible.
by 2025 pretty sure BRICS members will be ramping up USD competition system more and currency wars will be probably on full swing.
crypto in all such kind of mix of currency wars, stands a weak chance, since this is treated in all cases a speculative asset, funny monie, and most riskiest of asset class of all. Very sure spot ETF for BTC and other spot ETF for mix of top cryptos will be passed in coming years, and that will be used to control prices of markets just like it's being used for control all prices of commodities and precious metals.
it's a weird and rigged world of finances, very corrupt.