First, I own ETH and other crypto-currencies.
Crypto currencies market is growing fast and is highly unpredictable.
However, some facts make me believe it could:
Let’s do maths: 1 ETH can be bought tight now for 470$. To reach 6k, you have to multiply this value by nearly 12.75x, an increase of over 1000%! Now let’s go back 1 year before… the increase since 11/27/16 is 5166%.
I agree that the amount of money required to re iterate this performance is huge but…
Big money incoming: btc futures are starting on dec 11th, eth futures will follow, bringing big money as CONFIDENCE in cryptos is increasing.
ETH, unless BTC, is most sophisticated and could takes the lead in case of unsolvable problems on BTC (I’m thinking about scalability problems, on txn fees aspect, but also in power requirement to mine, where ETH is working on Proof of Stake, (currently 0.13% of global electricity - google uses 0.01 to 0.02%)).
FEATURES are still in development and we can expect a fully working ETH in 3/5 years, which will dramatically increase its value.
ADOPTION and also AWARENESS also, is still low. And use cases are still very rare in everyday’s life. This a room for growth. Consider yourself as a early adopter, for real.
These are pro that make me believe it’s not impossible. BTC will reach 10k soon and started under a cent. This is hard to believe but this is what’s happening here.
Now the cons, because I’m totally aware that it can drop at any time, and I can list a few reasons here:
Most of the market today is pure SPECULATION, I know whales and it’s a 100% profit mentality. Money would leave overnight if they don’t feel confident anymore.
A HACK or a MISCONCEPTION on ETH or BTC would destroy trust, and potentially make loose a lot of money. See DAO hack for example. At a higher scale it could make collapse the whole crypto world.
Other projects aim to be eth-killer, EOS mostly, which raised a HUGE amount of money so far, in ETH. See EOSscan - EOS token sale tracker by scanning ethereum blockchain for details. For now ETH is #1 on its market but expect hard COMPETITION. ETH uses its own language, Solidity, other projects are basically doing the same but with other languages, LISK (soon to be rebranded) with JavaScript, STRATIS with C#.
REGULATION could also deny legitimacy of crypto-currencies.
To conclude, I think it’s POSSIBLE, but I couldn’t tell you how probable it is to happen. Block chain tech is a major innovation, im confident with this. However, like internet bubble, the pioneer projects/companies aren’t guaranteed to remain in the game.
Feel free to discuss any point, I’ll be happy to answer in comments.