The market cap climb is steep
The steeper we climb now, the more risky the market becomes. We need to climb slowly and carefully!
From https://pixabay.com/en/steep-hill-upwards-roadsign-30937/
CAUTION! STEEP HILL!
Sadly the climb will attract new blood. This means more inexperienced traders who will throw money at anything to make a quick buck. Bitcoin and crypto in general are far more well known now than they were late last year, when they climbed rather radically. There is also a lot more institutional money interested in investing now.
Ironically it is probably new money driving the market up now. A lot of burnt old hands still appear wary from the recent drop (it's okay guys, get back in, you're missing out!).
I am afraid of history repeating (which it almost certainly will), but I take heart in the fact that the bear market has made investors more cautious. I hope to see a slightly slower bull market this time. I still think it will be a very powerful bull run, with impressive new ATHs and records being set, but I want a responsible bull run, one that proceeds at the pace of the long-term trendline. Exceed that trendline too much and we're headed for more trouble.
For now we are okay, we're still well below the line (see this post for the latest long-term trendline assessments: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/a-look-at-the-lastest-trendlines-after-the-bear-attack). But as we gain momentum, that may soon change. If it does change then be wary; diversify/use Tether/buy precious metals or art or something similar/take small profits.
I'm happy with the growth rate for now
Because:
Look at the chart below. It's the total market cap chart of the last five months.
I chose five months because that's we were at the same level which we hit at the bottom of the recent bear market (just below $250 bn). This means that we can now compare our current growth rate with that of the previous bull run.
The circled portions of the chart are from $250 bn to the current market cap level of about $430 bn. Look what happens when we overlay them. The red line is the last two week's line overlaid on the image from November/December 2017.
We are not climbing as steeply as before. This is good, it is healthier and more stable to climb at a lesser angle. Once we hit the trendline I hope that it slows down more, though I fear that the opposite will transpire. The arrows in the chart below help to illustrate the difference in climb speed/angle.
All chart images are from coinmarketcap.com, modifications done by Bit Brain.
Slower, steady growth is the key to a stable market. Keep a close eye on the growth rate. If it gets like it did last December, then expect another large correction. This run still has a long way to go and it could become very volatile. I'm hoping that the recent bear market continues to act as a mitigating influence on irresponsible investment, but I would never bet against the craziness of human nature. For example: Dogecoin - a coin that it's own creators widely acknowledge to be a joke - still has a huge following and market cap. Yesterday I saw Titanium (BAR) take second spot on the CMC "Gainers" list. The BAR token was replaced by the TBAR token some months ago, yet there are still enough crazies out there to drive it's price up by nearly 100% within 24 hours!
Be careful out there guys and lady-guys; watch your backs, nobody else will. (Except for 'ol Bit Brain, you know I've always got your back! 🤠)
Yours in crypto,
Bit Brain
DISCLAIMER:
I am neither a financial advisor nor a professional trader/investor. This is not financial advice, investment advice or trading advice. Unless otherwise stated, all my posts are my opinion and nothing more. Crypto is highly volatile and you can easily lose everything in crypto. You invest at your own risk! Information I post may be erroneous or construed as being misleading. I will not be held responsible for anything which is incorrect, missing, out-of-date or fabricated. Any information you use is done so at your own risk. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and realise that you and you alone are responsible for your crypto portfolio and whatever happens to it.