Months ago I talked about how to know when a market is overheated. It's a lot easier to tell when it's heated than when it's reaching bottom... People at the top are a lot louder, because they believe they're genius traders, they're rich and they've figured it all out. At the bottom, people aren't so public in admitting that they've lost thousands of dollars. So it gets quiet.
And it has been quiet for the last month. Now with Bitcoin dropping again, it seems like nobody is even crying about their lost fortunes... Just declaring death once again. So has crypto reached a bottom?
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Price action and people reaction
On the 14th of November, bitcoin dropped from $6300 to $5600, very suddenly. You probably noticed. Today on the 19th it took another drop to $5300.
What I've been noticing the last month or so is that of course, the crypto market has been very flat. When things do rally, there aren't as many cheerleaders saying "bitcoin is back". A friend said to me, "Kurt, I respect you because you're the only one still talking about bitcoins". Then when this drop happened, I didn't hear anyone saying "oh no, I've lost a fortune." Instead I see people saying the dream is over, RIP.
Jeff Berwick noted in a recent speech how few people are showing up to conferences, saying that in 2017 he saw conferences with 5000 attendees, but now there are far fewer, despite the good news such as Fidelity launching a crypto trading platform, Steve Wozniak co-founding a blockchain VC fund, and Jack Dorsey of Twitter saying Bitcoin is the currency of the future.
Take heart
The other day my friend said to me, I don't think I'll buy any crypto, it's too hard to pick the bottom. I said if that's your logic, you'll never invest in anything ever. I said, do you think anybody who bought bitcoin at $300 is crying now that they didn't buy it at $200? You gotta keep things in perspective.
Be greedy when others are fearly, be fearful when others are greedy. When you see a whole bunch of people bouncing out of the market, the temptation might be to depart with them. The hype is gone, the hope is gone, would that last candle of faith burning in your heart go out with them? This market belongs to those who see when others will not look, to take heart when men shrivel, and to have wits when others have lost their entire heads. Is there still courage within you friend, does your dream yet live?
Shout outs
I'd like to give a shout out to all the people who commented on my last video on Steemit. It got over 170 comments, some less spammy than others, some more respectful than others. A lot of people disagreed with me, but many had positions based on knowledge and reason. Thanks @mikeonfire, @transisto, @silentscreamer, @joeyarnoldvn, @sames, @frdem3dot0, among others.
Thanks again to all those people leaving those 5 star ratings on iTunes. Have a great day and stay grateful!
The Episode
You can listen to the episode on Anchor and other podcasting services here: Cryptonomics - Crypto Crash November 2018. Or watch on YouTube below:
