In what is becoming the norm for WAX.io releases, William Shatner Packs sold out in under nine minutes. The launch was no doubt a success for WAX and for Mr. Shatner. For most of the community it was received with high praise, but will the shine of Shatners charming face wear off? Or, has Shatner staked his claim once again, this time immutably on the WAX blockchain.
Go for Launch
The launch had a few typical hiccups for releases like this - a delay on the website refresh and a few users getting their credit cards declined. Despite these roadblocks, the launch itself was smooth as packs warped off shatnercards.io and into the hands of anxious WAX players.
While the initial buy was simple, players may have experienced friction shopping the secondary markets. Information on where to find markets was not on the main page, but rather buried a few clicks away. I got the feeling that many players purchased packs and did not explore enough to realize there was even secondary markets around. Shatner attracted new users to the WAX platform, many of which have never used any form of cryptocurrency. The easier we make the process from opening a wallet to loading it with WAX, the better chance of retaining these players in this and future releases. Getting WAX to shop with was also not as intuitive as it could have been. The only option presented to players was Moonpay, which is fee ridden and not a good option for a repeat on-ramp.
Show the Maths
Over 2250 WAX wallets have been created and a staggering 800 of those hold only one NFT. Another 200 have only two NFTs. Wallets are often created to exploit airdrops or promotions, so seeing large numbers of wallets with only one NFT is not that unusual. From a realistic player base of around 1200 people, 240 were buying NFTs and another 230 selling during the peak of this release, according to CryptoSlam. Without knowing the overlap between buyers and sellers, we can assume a max of 470 players exchanged NFTs on release day. From my angle, almost 500 users trading William Shatner NFTs on WAX is something to be proud of for Shatner and the crew.
The volume for the sale was impressive with over 435,000 WAX, or roughly $21,300, transacted on the release date alone. This puts the initial release day volume below Tiger King (822k) and behind GPK (1.7MM), according to WAXplorer. While low compared to projects outside of crypto, 21 thousand is a great start for a user base of under 2,500. An in depth look at total volume is needed before we can make any true assessment of the financial success. The dynamics at play are fascinating but also very intricate. While some markets like Simplemarket have petered off, others have taken charge and command much of the volume (collectables and Myth). Understanding the factors that drove these sales will help us better understand what could drive the success or failure of future releases as well.
GPK’s release volume eclipses TK and WS
The number of cards in this release is much less than we saw in TK and closer to that of GPK. Radiants are just as rare as their Golden cousins which is similar to TK stripes and CE. But, the inclusion of Shards in each pack means that the total number of cards versus the total number of assets is very low. As more shards are taken off the market, packs will have less of a chance of leading you to a completed card. This could have an interesting effect on the price of packs.
Per Type / Per Card
Base 27201.25 544.03
Shimmer 8847.61 176.95
Xray 5102.81 102.06
Radiant 44.00 4.40
Golden 25.00 5.00
Total Cards 41220.67
This is my personal estimate of total card numbers
Time to Shard
Shards are a success with the new mechanic driving packs to rip open, passing TK's total pack percentages in little time. As packs continue to open, cards may lower in value, but the shards themselves become rarer, as do the packs. This means that players can justify opening their packs rather than holding them. Another interesting mechanic is each pack including a raffle ticket called Life In Plastic It’s Fantastic. This bonus card gives you a chance to win an autographed Kirk figure in an upcoming drawing. These have sold for upwards of 25 WAX on the markets and give additional incentive to opening packs.
Unopened Packs
GPK Fives: 2407 / 10000 (24%)
GPK Megas: 359 / 2000 (18%)
TK Fives: 9037 / 13000 (70%)
TK Megas: 3288 / 7000 (47%)
WS Fives: 3730 /7000 (53.3%)
WS Megas: 1531/3000 (51%)
This shows how much percentage each project’s unopened packs are of the total pack amount unopened
I see Gold
The chase for Golden Cards has also panned out well with private and secondary market sales reaching over 13,500. Radiants have not seen much movement, which may be due to players not yet fully grasping how rare they really are. Shards and cards both have been settling into their prices over the last week, slowly decreasing until they discover their true short-term value. At the time of this article, packs are being offered for 156 and 825 on Shatner.market, which is still double the retail price. Maintaining these levels through the next couple weeks would show strength in Shatner for the long haul.
Headshots have sold on markets for around 13k and more in private sales
Warning: Error!
By far the most interesting part of this release has been the vast number of mistakes made by Topps. There are six cards with numbering errors - where the date is two years off. There are also three cards with spelling mistakes. I am personality very irritated by these sorts of mistakes, but it seems that WAX is OK with this carelessness. This may be in part to their decision to make the data of the cards mutable on the chain, causing them to already fix errors that went unnoticed - Like spelling Memorabilia as Memorabilias.
Time will tell if having a mutable system of NFTs will be a good decision for the value of the WAX brand. William tweeted about one of the mistakes, recommending that WAX leave them alone. It is good when the creator understands and supports the value of the product and is one reason why these cards may hold value.
Shatner agrees that changing the mistakes on cards can decrease their value
A few cards have some well-hidden Easter Eggs. There is a secret moon in the Xray version of Alexander, 1965, as well as the words WAX hidden on the bandana in the Xray Bank Robber card. If Shatner follows trends from previous releases, these special additions will maintain value better than most cards. Many players do not discover that these sorts of goodies exist, until they read articles about them, of course!
Easter Eggs in Shatner are hidden during the Xray transformations
Besides Errors and eggs, the popular cards seem to be ones that display Shatner as a strapping young lad (Moms love these) as well as cards related to Star Trek. Surprisingly, there is little amount of actual Star Trek cards. The Ghostbusters card is also a bust - that one I did not expect. Some cards are popular because they just look cool, like Fixing the Jupiter 8. For a variety of cards that really just show Shatner hanging out in his normal life, there is a lot of charm on collectability in many of the cards.
One of the popular cards showing Shatner wrenching on the Jupiter 8.
The community has rallied behind this release due to its new, fun mechanics and freshness to its approach. What we have not seen is tremendous growth. The Discord community is currently at 325 members and doubled around the time of release, which is not much to look at. There are also no pack breaks happening- the shard system makes it less desirable to get only one card. As packs become rarer and shards to complete cards become harder to find, what will the community turn to for Shatner fun? Shatner may release multiple series from clues that have been gathered. It will be interesting to see if there is any cross over between the seasons or if the IP can retain the same attention it garnered this time around for future seasons.
I have little doubt that WAX will continue to grow, and that Shatner's future releases will continue to grow the WAX community. How big of a success the project will be seen as in the future is something I will have to run a simulation on in the Holodeck. For now, it is nice to see that a man older than anyone else I follow can release a project on the WAX blockchain that grabs the interest of the most tech savvy bunch alive. If WAX can continue to harness the power that is Shatner, we could see even more surprising and exciting things develop for Shatner Packs. Until then, I will keep trying to roll an Xray Alex.