By now, we've all heard the news that a Mt. Gox Trustee has been liquidating Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash in equal amounts to raise $500 million to pay off debtors. But where does it end? That is the question on everyone's mind.
Some of you have been around long enough that this scenario has been bantered about with Satoshi's own stash of almost a million Bitcoin tokens. What happens if he starts liquidating his funds? Simply put, the market prices collapse amid the flood of thousands or more Bitcoins dumped on the market and being liquidated.
While I believe the Mt. Gox trustee is close to done liquidating what he wants to liquidate, no one knows for sure. He may be dumping at any time and for the next one, two, or few more months. That does not preclude other whales sniffing the chum in the water generated by this trustee's action and sending in a few sharks to shake a few more weak hands loose.
In other words, while all eyes are on what's going on with the trustee's coins, nothing stops another whale from striking hard and swiftly while all fingers are pointed in another direction and generating enough uncertainty to scoop up even more BTC that he didn't have to work hard to shake loose.
I believe we'll see a couple more tall red candles directly from just this scenario and we're starting to see Bitcoin return to the top of the downtrend channel and will likely penetrate for the third time in the very near future. The real question is whether it will go deep or not. It all depends on if the sharks are circling a bunch of bears or not. If there enough stop-loss orders on the books and a whale decides to play their hand, we could very well see massive spike in volume and short sells that lead to Bitcoin trading in the $6k range once again.
Be ready for it. Also be prepared for Bitcoin to climb higher and escape this morass, but more likely, with the red candles on the 4 hour chart and MACD curling down while histogram nearing zero, we can expect to touch top of downtrend channel at the very least.