Another good day! I know they can’t all be good, but damn. My assumption at this point is that anyone with a lick of sense about them (not me, obviously) must be a millionaire already trading in this market. I mean. Seriously? Just crazy!
Started the day by jumping in on an ETH dip and making a quick profit. Bought in again to start my trading and headed over to, you guessed it, APPC.
I really love this coin. It moves fast and I’ve started to learn how it behaves. I know it’s new and will probably mature within the coming months, but for now it is a fun ride! Today was my most successful day with this coin. I’ve learned from some of my previous mistakes and refined my strategy as it pertains to APPC. I said I wasn’t going to get into chart analysis (because I know nothing about it) but I will talk a little about my strategy in case someone wants to point out where I’m mistaken. As time goes on, I don’t want to fall into the trap of mistaking luck for good strategy.
It may look like I’m offering analysis at some point, but don’t be fooled, I’m just talking about how I think about the chart. Please don’t make decisions based on this blog. Look at my user name, for god’s sake! ☺
Again, on minute candles. It’s the only way to play this chart that I can find. 5 minute almost works, but there is too much happening on the minute scale and I think a lot of people are trading this chart on the minute candles, as well. I can’t say anything other than it just ‘feels’ right.
One thing I’ve noticed about this coin is that anytime there is a sharp take off, there will usually be a really fast dip about ½ or ¾ down from the top. So, today I started modifying my order to chase the half-way mark up the spike.
The second part of my strategy was to follow through on my commitment to abandon a trade if it didn’t meet the pattern I was expecting.
I was contemplating making an entry at A, but something about the pace of things, the volume, the over all smell (?). I don’t know, I canceled my order at the last minute and avoided a slaughter!
Next was B. You see I should have profited from that nice bounce, but I had my order set up for a sharp spike. And instead, it came down all long and shady, like. Then, as soon as my order cleared, a big old mean bear clamped down on my position with about 50 ETH. What is it with these guys??
I had about 30 seconds to make a decision. I opted to sell out even for two reasons. 1) I still don’t understand this particular bear behavior, as seen in yesterday’s post (on this same coin) and 2) This trade did not match my expectations of a sharp spike down with an immediate spring up.
I missed the next spike by a just too short order. I had it set below the yellow support line. You see how well this coin bounces? Annoying.
I caught the next one dead on. That green line is a tough cookie to break, I had a feeling it wouldn’t get below it. I could have got more on the bounce, but I am trying to be more conservative with my exits. I am looking at the average bounce on a given day and generally going for the average or even on the low end of the bounces as long as it is at least 2%. Small bites add up and I think I will have a better chance of safely getting to my goal with many small bites (with less risk) instead of a few large ones (with a lot of risk).
C is a great example contrast with my position at A. Here, I was ready for a slow decent and a metered bounce. A couple of bears came into this one as well, but I was mentally prepared and the trade was matching with my expected behavior so I stuck with it. I didn’t quite nail the bottom, but I got the top good. Again, see how well it respected that red resistance line. Then one more little trade and I was out for the day. I feel like I handled this one good today. In time I would like to catch more of those bounces. I’m not sure what a good percentage of catches is? I hit about 50% during the span I was trading and made a profit on each one. Seems good to me!
I would have kept playing in APPC for awhile, but I got an alert on XLM. I had been watching it tank over the last couple of days and noticing nice regular ~10-14% bounces after a crack. I had been slowly tracking a slow decent for a couple of hours. Once I got the alert I cancelled my other orders and watched the XLM board for about 20 minutes and decided that it was about to take a nice dive. I already had what I thought was a solid support level marked out and I figured, if they wanted to drive it all the down, I would take the 10% bounce.
I missed the bottom barely, it really bit it! I did not expect it to break that support level as deep as it did. The fight back up was really hard as well and I had to break my exit order out several times and drop it quite about from my expected 10%. Still my best profit of the day and well fought for! I have no idea what is happening with XLM. I was googling during all of this to try and find something out, but all I could find were some random 4chan threads, not much help! no one else was talking about it. It Seemed to me that some big whales were intentionally pushing the price down. There was just no good reason not to let it bounce back up a little. But what do I know? I’m still struggling with the philosophical implications of value that are arising out of all of this. How does anyone decide what anything is worth when it seems like we are just shuffling the same coins back and forth to each other every couple of minutes? It boggles the mind!
I was able to exit XLM just as ETH was around $1300. I took my profits and then decided to try and ride the wave one more time before clocking out. Oops! I had seen a steemit blog by @exxodus earlier in the day saying that after breaking $1300, ETH was going to take a nice dive. Maybe down into the $800’s! I was literally discussing this with him in the comment section of his blog when this happened.
I barely got out alive! I would have got out totally even or with a small profit, but Binance locked up on my right then (surprise!). I really only have trouble with Binance at the moments I need to make fast decisions or changes. Those minute candles kill me! I have to refresh or re-login 80% of the time after a buy before I can put up my sell order. Very stressful when everything is happening in 2 minutes or less!
So, I’m out. I’m happy with my day and I’m looking forward to the $875 ETH. If you don’t follow @exxodus, check him out. So far, a pretty solid guy with good ideas. He saved my ass tonight! As I finish writing this, ETH is back up and I could have got out with my small extra profit on the day, but I’m happy to be out with a very small loss, even if it keeps going up over night. Tomorrow is another day and I still have liquid if ETH does decide to drop!
Party hard, but don’t trade like an idiot!
| Balance | Today's Profit | Today's % | Average Daily % | Daily % needed to reach 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6,690.17 | $580.33 | 8.67% | 2.3% | 1.42% |