Bitcoin is facing with great resistance to move price higher. Resistance area is around $14500 and a lot of energy will be needed to push price above this area. But if Bitcoin succeed then a path to much higher levels is wide opened.
Majority of analysts here on Steemit use Elliott wave theory and linear straight support and resistance lines which connect higher heights or lower lows. But I'm more and more convinced that they missing a real picture. Especial this is true for support and resistance lines. I state that moving averages as equipotential lines (read more EP lines: #1, #2, #3, #4) are much more accurate support or resistance curves and can be very well used for predicting where price will run into obstacles slowing it down or rebouncing from them.
My intention is to demonstrate this on actual Bitcoin price. From mid December where Bitcoin reach his last all times height it's price is oscillating around $14000 level in smaller and smaller oscillations. Elliottic way to explain this pattern is that wedge from two lines is formed and then price bounce from this two lines up and down typically five times (a,b,c,d,e, triangle pattern), but I look on this price motion as a battle with EP lines. Support is provided with lower EP line that is not caught in the turbulence and resistance is upper envelope of EP lines crossing to downwards. Some times price leave an envelope for a while but then fall in again. More and more this area is narrowing more energy is packed in smaller space and this unpredictable area trigger breakout up or down.
So it is crucial to estimate how many resistance is provided in up or down direction. Bitcoin price tend to stay in trading channel between EP lines with high potential. (EP500, 809). EP735 is long term support line streaching back to the Segwit2x dip in November. Price will probably just try this resistance and not cross it for a longer time. Volume picks indicate intensive trading when price approach EP735. MACD and RSI indicate bottom potential which can propel price upwards. To above there is four EP lines with high potential (118, 191, 309, 500) which present formidable obstacles. Think of them as trenches in WW1. If bulls overrun all trenches and come behind the lines there is no resistance left. This will be tough battle and bulls have small chances to succeed. If bulls fail a bears counterattack will follow and another battle will be fought on open ground between EP 809 and 1309.
On 1 day frame chart a divergence between MACD and RSI and price is present and last two candles are not promising. Bearish engulfing speaks for bears advantage but we have just one previous lower candle, so this pattern is not so important at the moment. EP lines are well up oriented and overall trend in Bitcoin price is still bullish.
So no trading is recommended until situation not clear up enough that the wining side can be declared.
Don't forget to check out this new TFDSRE thing and fuck the haejin's waves! You can't surf on them: #1, #2, #3, #4.
Previous analysis: #21, #22, #23, #24, #25, #26. Is good to check them out to get insight into my reasoning.
Image sources: Investing.com,
Data sources: Bitfinex exchange
Disclaimer: If you use my ideas and analyses in your investment ventures, you take all responsibility and consequences about your actions.
What do you think about BTC price? Comment and present your views! Great ideas emerge from good quality discussion! I'll be immensely grateful for your contribution.
Check also technical analyses from TAF squad: @pawsdog, @futuristgear, @exxodus, @allthereisislove, @lordoftruth, @ew-and-patterns, @toofasteddie, @gazur.
And as always upvote this post and previous ones, if it have some value, follow me, if you think this content is great and I promise that it will be more interesting stuff in the future. Let steem on, to the bright future!