Bear market is something what hodlers and early adopters are not used to in crypto world, but if we want to grow up we must face with a challenge of bear market and stagnation in prices. On the end, balance between demand and supply, buyers and sellers, bulls and bears is a healthy sign of adult market. And we want a adopted grown up crypto currencies market, ant't we.
We have to believe in blockchain technology and decentralization systems and structures which will set us free of centralized hierarchical structures as governments and banks are. New forms of states and governments will rise from this decentralization. It will be better world for us all.
To understand my reasoning better you have to read my serious about TFDSRE analysis @.
It has turned that way that my analysis #23 from three weeks ago is actually accurate and all next ones was only a attempts to explain current situation a little better. I stated there:
Fibonacci proportions of ABCD correction are perfect so pattern tells with high probability that an upward trend will start from point D around $9600 to point E.
It turns out that this was good prediction as good as weather report can be good and bad and when is bad you are angry because you live umbrella at home. But on the other hand a prediction was almost pinpoint accurate and miss a D turning point for just few hundred bucks, depends which exchange Bitcoin price you take. I hope that also the end of prediction will fulfill and we will have Bitcoin around $25k in first quarter of this year.
From the end of December after Bitcoin price reach all times height sentiment on market turn bearish. A south channel have formed and we have already have three bounces from support and resistance lines of that trading channel. The next one is expected in point E.
Volume was ascending in the previous price movement to the point C. In point D volume spikes what is usual and ascending trend had been indicated for the next move. This is good news for possible breakout from the channel in point E. MACD trace price movement, but RSI is in divergence with price in trading channel, which is another sign that bulls are organizing and will try to break out upwards when price reaches support line. So when we reach point E. Another struggle starts and the outcome is not yet known.
Hodlers are more persistent race and will hodl no matter what will happen, but traders will probably try to exploit move of price to the point E and get some gains in the process.
Don't forget to check out this new TFDSRE thing Elliott waves are not the only thing, you can surf on: #1, #2, #3, #4.
Previous analysis: #21, #22, #23, #24, #25, #26, #27. Is good to check them out to get insight into my reasoning.
Image sources: Investing.com,
Data sources: Bitfinex exchange
Disclaimer: If you use my ideas and analyses in your investment ventures, you take all responsibility and consequences about your actions.
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