Socrates once said, the only thing I know, is I know nothing. Upon hearing that for the first time it intrigued me that such a wise philosopher would utter such a statement.
After much pondering and musing, I accepted the notion that Socrates, must have meant that compared to the unending things that there are to know in the universe, he in fact knew nothing.
However it is fairly recently, that I have changed my mind on the statement, two 20th century scientists came up with a psychological study that perhaps sheds some light on those enigmatic words.
John's insisted that this was indeed the best location to build his house.
Knowing How To Know
In 1999 David Dunning and Justin Kruger, released their findings, which showed that in order to properly assess one's own ability, that person had to have a certain level of competence. They discovered that the same mechanisms used to create a correct result, were also the same used to recognise the very same result.
In other words, you have to be competent enough, to realise just how incompetent you are!
This of course creates a serious problem when it comes to self assessment. For instance I have always thought that I had a fairly reasonable idea with where I stood in the intelligence pecking order.
However if I'm not even clever enough to work out how stupid I am; what hope is there for me!?!
Prediction Models
The theory itself says that the other side of the coin is that competent people underestimate their abilities; so maybe I'm doing that?
No, I could just as easily be doing that because I've heard that that's what competent people are supposed to do. So now I'm just pretending to myself that I don't know how competent I am, in order to convince myself that I'm actually very competent.
It would seem that there is no reliable self-administered test I can take, to see if I'm suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect
New Idea New Beginning
The other day I put a fun little fact about Stephen Hawking up on Facebook, and then did an article about it here on Steemit. The responses I got to that post and article, made me realise there was in fact a subjective way to test if you are being objectively incompetent.
I pointed out that Hawking died on the same day as Albert Einstein. I then pointed out that even though it might seem counter-intuitive, it has been proven that it is a 50/50 chance that within any randomly selected group of 23 people, that 2 of them would share a birthday. It just so happens that these two people, are 2 of the greatest minds to have ever lived.
Both my post on Facebook, and on Steemit, had a number of replies that fell into three main categories.
Already knew: These were the people who had heard of the Birthday Problem before, and either commented on such, or gave me some extra info about it.
Didn't Know, yet fascinated: This group of people were unaware of the theorem, and wanted to find out more. They asked questions, put forward their own intuitive estimates they had for two random people having the same birthday, and then when I sent them the links to the evidence, they accepted that they had been wrong.
Didn't know, and refused to accept: This group of people existed both on Facebook and Steemit, whereby they just flat out refused to accept the theorem, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. I realised that whilst not wholly scientific, this last type of response could be a good measure to use in order to work out if I myself am suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect.
The Only Thing I Know, Is I Know Nothing
Being able to keep a balance between having a critical, questioning mind, and taking on board and accepting new ideas, even if they completely change what you once thought, is probably a good indicator, that you don't suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Understanding that your instincts, no matter how strong they are, can be, and in fact, often are; completely wrong. How you deal with that will ultimately give you a good gauge of your own competence.
Prepared to accept that there are people out there more knowledgeable than you and they have discovered stuff you haven't even thought of?
Great, you are competent enough to realise your own incompetence.
Feel that any new idea that doesn't fit into your preconceived notion of the world is complete BS?
If so, the chances are that you'll be sitting there right now calling me out on my bullshit.
There quite literally, is no hope for you . . .
As for me, I now finally believe that I am just about clever enough, to realise just how dumb I really am.
Further reading:
Dunning–Kruger effect: Wiki
Pavel, Samuel R.; Robertson, Michael F.; and Harrison, Bryan T. (2012) **"The Dunning-Kruger Effect<< and SIUC University’s Aviation Students:" Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering: Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 6.
Original Study: Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments.
Note: While researching 'further reading' links, I discovered something else I didn't know. Many people argue that the 'Only thing I know..' saying should not actually be attributed to Plato's Socrates. :-)
Related Musings:
Cryptogee Musings Table Of Contents
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WHAT ABOUT YOU GUYS? HOW DO YOU REACT IN THE FACE OF COMPLETELY NEW, EMPIRICALLY BACKED, INFORMATION? ARE YOU MORE LIKELY TO SPEND A LOT OF ENERGY TRYING TO PROVE IT ISN'T EVIDENCE? OR DO YOU TREAT THE SITUATION AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN SOMETHING NEW?
AS EVER, LET ME KNOW BELOW!