When people say *I hate to say I told you so . . ." they are clearly lying, of course people actually love to say "Ha! Told you. I was right!" Because who doesn't love being right; right?
When you predict something about a person, place or event, you are doing it because you think you're right. However in reality you are floating around in the dark, not really sure if you're correct about whatever it is you've predicted.
Unless it's the sun rising tomorrow, then you just simply don't know, and that not knowing causes uncertainty, which creates a chemical imbalance in your brain. So when you get proved right it's like a bright light coming on in a dark room and you have your ha! moment and balance is restored.
Bitcoin Bubbles & Biscuits
I am no different, I love saying I told you so, I enjoy the mental cookie of being right just as much as the next person. This urge to be right is in direct conflict with my wish for Bitcoin to bounce back resurgent, this is because I have a hypothesis about the price of Bitcoin and it's not very optimistic.
My theory is fuelled partly by what my ex-hedge fund manager Steemian friend @quillfire said to me about the bitcoin market, and that is the fact it doesn't behave like more traditional markets.
The philosophy and driving mantra of the Bitcoin and in fact the crypto community is hodl, in other words hang onto your tokens because they will go up and up.
This fact coupled with the one that the major BTC holders are not selling on exchanges, means that it is surprisingly easy to manipulate the Bitcoin market.
So my theory is this, the banks are manipulating Bitcoin and are making money and destabilising the coin while they're at it.
I believe they are doing this by using the BTC position on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to short the coin and then dump it later down the line. The money they lose in the dump is made up for in the short position, and then they just rinse and repeat.
Evidence Based
So I'm basing this theory on two things, the first being that before Bitcoin's inclusion onto the CME, every banker and his dog was dissing Bitcoin, this seemed to stop once it became a future.
Secondly the price has been trapped between about $5k and $8.5k for almost as long as the CME inclusion.
Both of these pieces of evidence are highly circumstantial and could definitely explain something else, so I'm under no illusion that it is anything but pure guesswork on my part.
I am also aware that my pattern-seeking brain has put two and two together and come up with five.
Here's Hoping
So for once, even though it is immensely satisfying, I hope I don't get to say I told you so.
However if the price of BTC is back down at the $5-6,000 mark in around 4-6 weeks and then is back up to $8,500 a couple of months after that, with a repeating pattern playing out throughout the year, then expect an I was right article.
WHAT HAVE YOU BEEN RIGHT (OR WRONG) ABOUT LATELY? DO YOU USE A PREDICTION MODEL FOR CRYPTO? IS THAT MODEL ANY MORE RELIABLE THAN READING TEA LEAVES OR THROWING DARTS AT A BOARD? OR PERHAPS YOU TOO BELIEVE THE EVIL BANKS ARE KILLING OUR BELOVED CRYPTO?
AS EVER, LET ME KNOW BELOW!
Title Image: Åsmund Gimre on Unsplash