With daring military attacks, kinetic warfare is shifting the balance of power in regions across the globe, upending the perception of power projection. Powerful nations are reeling from the impacts of bold assaults and seeking additional methods to drive foreign policy — cyber may look as an appealing asymmetric warfare capability that is worth doubling-down on.
Powerful militaries were traditionally believed to be a stabilizing force that possessed depth for protection of key political assets, national critical infrastructures, and powerful weapon systems that influence geopolitics.
Times change.
Fall of the Mighty
We have seen two of the most powerful nations have their military severely degraded by kinetic attacks from much smaller adversaries. In Europe, Ukraine has punched well above its weight class. It has gutted the world’s largest tank force, air defenses, and injured or killed upwards of a million Russian soldiers — which was considered the 2nd most formidable military force before the shooting began.
The recent spectacular attack, Operation Spiders Web, leveraged Ukrainian domestically produced weaponized drones to strike against Russian long-range bomber aircraft at their airbases, far from the front lines, seriously impacting Russia’s strategic military capability. The covert attack involved over 100 drones, targeted five Russian airbases, and destroyed or damaged at least 20 strategic bombers, including deep strikes into Siberia.
In the Middle East, Isreal has swept aside Iran’s missile defense and air force to dominate the skies above a nation that possesses the 8th largest military. It is striking targets day and night with impunity, even in the capital of Tehran. In addition to targeting military aircraft, air defenses, ballistic missile launch sites, and leadership personnel, the focus has been to destroy the massive uranium enrichment capabilities that Iran has been maturing for decades. Iran has spent enormous resources on refinement facilities and now possesses a significant quantity, well over 800 pounds, of 60% enriched nuclear material. This uranium is very close to the 90% grade needed for nuclear weapons and far from the 3% refinement needed for fuel in nuclear power plants.
In both regions, powerful air campaigns from smaller adversaries have decimated the capabilities and strategic assets of the powerhouses in their region.
So, what is a nation to do when their superior conventional weapons are either woefully insufficient or significantly degraded to strike back?
As it turns out, the asymmetric characteristics of cyber warfare begins to look like a very appealing strategic investment to support desirable outcomes.
Nation State Cyberattacks Are Not New
Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea are well known to be the most aggressive nations that back offensive cyberattacks against their adversaries. They undermine national critical infrastructures, commit fraud and extortion to fund operations, and steal intellectual property to advance domestic industries. Russia and Iran have also conducted or attempted cyberattacks that targeted the military industrial base, misinformation to manipulate national policies and garner public sympathy, and impactful hacks on the critical infrastructures of their adversaries — essentially committing acts of cyberwar against their stated enemies.
Such attacks have had less than desired and limited impacts in the past. It has not brought adversaries to their knees, changed political landscapes, or created significant barriers to military operational effectiveness. The potential is there, but no nation has proven a grasp of the perfect tactics to wield cyber-attacks in devastating ways. Not yet anyways.
This is where an increase in investment and research, loosening of the rules-of-engagement, and fostering innovation with less-than-scrupulous partners, may open new avenues for greater impacts.
Cyber operations are relatively inexpensive as compared with kinetic based heavy-metal weapon systems. They easily cross borders and can attack anyone around the globe. The experts are often well protected and the talent pipeline is easily sustainable for autocratic regimes. Most importantly, they hold the potential to disproportionately impact western countries, as their reliance on Information & Communications Technology (ICT) is must higher. Everything from food distribution, electrical power, shipping logistics, financial services, healthcare, and government operations are heavily dependent on relatively fragile computing systems and networks.
Cyber as the Next Frontier
If such nations choose to deeply expand their current investments into cyberattacks, it could push past a tipping point. As more serious vulnerabilities are discovered, they are exploited faster, and the damages become more severe. All this for a fraction of the cost of replacing destroyed military aircraft.
In the end, both military and cyber attacks are simply tools for nations to push their national and foreign policy agendas. Military assets are expensive, vulnerable, and have a very limited range of influence. The current events may be a catalyst for shifting the defense economics of warfare.
Cybersecurity professionals must be prepared and vigilant. Offensive cyber, orchestrated from powerful nation states, may become a top tier investment that has a force multiplier impact for future battles and conflicts. The impacts of such stratagems will impact every public and private sector. Cybersecurity must be ready.
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