In the UK we have a television game show called ‘deal or no deal’. For those of you that are unaware, the object of the game is to select boxes to be opened at random. The boxes contain a cash amount, with half being high figures and the rest being small change. The amount that is in the final box is won by the player.
As more and more boxes are opened it becomes clear how likely the player is to win larger amounts. The constant will at some point be given an opportunity to accept an arbitrary settlement to forfeit the game. This is the ‘deal or no deal’ moment.
Moving the conversation back to crypto. Imagine the scenario from a few years ago. Bitcoin was worth $160, and many had bought it for virtually nothing. At some point it would have gone up-to $2000. Some would have said ‘deal’ and sold their steak for enormous gains. The alternative was to watch it bleed slowly down to $100.
Imagine that you had held onto it, and then 2 years later it hits $2K again. The question again would be ‘ deal or do deal’. I can see the temptation being strongly to sell. If you had done you’d missed out on $20k.. or maybe even $50k on day.
If you own crypto, this dilemma will be one each of us will have to face.
Crypto assets live in a uniquely volatile market environment. Quite simply put, no one knows how to value them. Demand for particular assets are driven by speculation. That does not mean there is no intrinsic value to them, but their true price point will only become obvious in the future.
Until then, it will be interesting to see with the Benefit of hindsight who played the best game. For now I’m holding on.