Economic Analysis explained using Sports Puzzles Volume 4

This is the fourth puzzle in the puzzle series. The puzzles in today’s video, like the puzzles in Volume 3, focus on winning strategies. The puzzles require the viewer to determine the optimal strategy for the team to take in order to win a soccer match. The team in most questions are losing by a goal with 10 or 15 minutes remaining in the game. The manager has to decide whether to be aggressive or to remain with the existing strategy. The questions provide the probabilities of scoring under both the aggressive strategy and the existing strategy. Below is an example that will help explain the puzzles presented in the video.

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Answer to the Example

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The video then contains 2 questions which are somewhat similar to the example provided above but contain different probabilities of scoring under each strategy. It is the job of the viewer to determine which strategy provides the highest chance of success. The two questions are as follows in the pictures, diagrams and tables shown below. I strongly recommend attempting the puzzles before continuing to the answers below, thank you.

Question 1

Question 2

At the end of the video the answers to the questions and the explanations supporting the answers are provided. The pictures, diagrams and tables below summarize the answers to the questions.