Hello Steemians,
In between light subjects like Video games, TV Show reviews and other light subjects, I sometimes have the surge of speaking about some serious subjects that animates the news today on television. In your country, I don’t know, but here and close, A LOT.
I am talking about Catalunia and her wish to become independent from Spain.
Wait a minute, you will say another political debate on whether it is normal or not, in favor of yes or no, well absolutely not!
I will try not to take part of political debate in here, that is not the goal of this message.
On the contrary I will talk about the consequences of the Catalunia crisis on its economy and the possible repercussion to Crypto currencies.
As we can see, many economical crisis have a serious impact on the crypto world, as more and more persons are fed up with the traditional way of money flowing. Many and many refugiate themselves or maybe should I say diversify their investments in the crypto environment. We have seen the case many many times these last years, in India, Greece, cyprus. We all know we are on the verge of a major economic crisis.
But this is no news, if you are only a little interested in the economic world and how it works, all known indicators point toward a major crisis. Of course it is held up by governments, bank, major lobbies who do not want that bubble to explode. But it won’t last long.
On one hand we have these facts, and on another hand we all know that one event, conflict, change can make this bubble to explode, and this could have a major impact on the blockchain technology, well cryptocurrencies in general. They could be used as a « niche » to protect and diversify their consuming power. It is going to be much better to hold your savings in cryptocurrencies rather than in your bank accounts… And it may convince the last reluctant person to finally invest in blockchains.
Of course, I am not saying that the eventual independence of Catalunia, (a region of Spain for those who do not know, located on the north east of Spain) will provoke this crisis. But it is events like that that can make a solid ground for the whole economy to collapse and let the crisis in the big open.
But let me explain you a little bit more about Catalunia. As I said before I am not going to engage a political debate or whether or not it is a good idea for them to be independent even though in my deepest conscience I hope they won’t have this independence, because that would be the worst thing economically that could happen to them. And here I am going to detail a few example of that:
Catalunia desperate call for democracy, as they have an urging will to become an independent country. You can ask 100 catalans in the street, they will all say one thing and have one answer to the question « why on earth do you want to be independent? » They will say : « Ohhh we are tired of paying more tax than other and seeing them distributed to other than catalans ». Well if you think it is a little bit egocentric, well you will be entirely right, cause they are like that, it’s a fact. I have been living there for 7 years, that is experience talking, hard evidence! But don’t miss the whole point, they are INDEED paying more taxes, and it is true that Catalunia is one of the richest region of Spain. But well, in every family there are brother and sister who have more and share with the one who needs the most. Well that’s my personal opinion. In this case in Europe it would be the same in Belgium with the « wallons » and the « flamands » which have approximately the same fight.
Anyway, that is to plant the general situation, they want to be alone, and pay for them and not for other. But what will happen if on October 10 2017 Mr Puigdemont declare Catalunia independent will have an ENORMOUS impact on this region and I am not meaning it positive. I am only going to talk about the economical point of view, but here it is.
The independance of Catalunia will be all but a good news for this region, Spain and Europe (especially the UE).
A lot of people are saying that Catalunia can survive « alone » because of its economic power (automobile industry and tourism mainly), but what they don’t know is that this economic attractivity only exist if Catalunia remains in the European Union, and therefore Spain. Because one non return point is that first of all, they will get out of Europe by law. They will have to apply again in order to reintegrate this alliance. Once out of the EU, it will be almost impossible to get in again. We can already see the economical consequences and politico-diplomatic of the Brexit lead by Great-Britain (and Great Britain is not out of the Union yet!!!).
Because YES, is you reestablish borders, and get out of the union market, tourism WILL go down, like automobile exportation because the preferential taxes will no longer exist with Catalunia being out of the Union. To all of that you have to add the exit of the Euro zone, which is more than possible if you heart what chancellor Merkel from Germany said lately.
Ok they can sign an agreement in order to be able to pursue their use of the Euro as currency, even if they are out of the EU, but when we see the faith of the countries that are in this situation (Kosovo Montenegro), you have to think it twice, before doing anything silly.
Even more, Catalunia will have to sign up new agreements with all major association: UN, FMI, OMC, BM and so on…and it is IMPOSSIBLE to do it in short terms like they want to do.
Oh and another risk of this independence, it will raise nationalism in all Europe, and emergence of other region that would want to do the same, Basques, scottish, and so on. Movements that are more violent than others in order to get what they want like the wave of ETA terrorism.
But you will ask me, what does all of that could imply on Cryptocurrencies?
Well what will happen with banks? That is what you need to know!
Today the two major banks of Catalunia did one thing. Getting their main office OUT of Catalunia, just for one reason: they know what will happen. If you get out of Europe you will be getting out of all the insurance brought by the FMI, account insurance, safe deposits insurance and so on. They can lose ALL OF their money.
By getting out of this region, people from this region will see their account and saving safe.
But…. WAIT A MINUTE… Why should I worry?
EASY… What would Catalunia do to protect they wealthiness? Like in every political crisis, people get scared, and when you are scared, you pack your thing and flee away :) Oh very very bad news for Catalunia! What will they do? Hmmm about the same Greece and Cyprus did, freeze everything, let you take your money little by little amounts, and then what will happen if they get out of the Euro zone? They will have to transfer each single Euro in their new currency! Major devaluation in sight!
What does this means for the crypto world? People will look for alternatives. And like Greece had an impact on BTC value and crypto in general, this could be the one thing that can change it all….
The beginning of the general world economy might have its first breach and the blockchain world will know another era…. Each time the major wall of World Economics see an incoming crisis to handle, we can see a crack growing on its side, it is on the verge of collapsing. Fasten your seatbelt guys, this will be a bumpy ride!
Please don't hesitate to share your opinion, as I said I live there, and are very concerned about the subject, and always EAGER to know more :)
Cheers,
Mangou
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