Elon Musk said this on a few occasions:-
The most entertaining outcome is the most likely.
I don't follow that guy too closely, but I guess he could just be saying it to psyop people into thinking whatever he's up to is going to happen, as was the case with Dogecoin. It'll be entertaining if it dethrones Bitcoin, but that can be said about any other cryptos.
Guy's a gazzilionaire though, so I'd like to spend a few mos to entertain what he seems to think is a profound insight. So, I asked ChatGPT about what he probably meant when he said those words:-
Observation of Historical and Social Trends: Musk might be suggesting that, often, the course of events tends to favor scenarios that are dramatic or unexpected, as these are more likely to capture public attention and interest. This could be a commentary on how media and public discourse tend to focus on sensational stories.
Reflection of Probability and Chaos Theory: In a more scientific context, this could be a nod to the inherent unpredictability of complex systems, where seemingly unlikely events can often occur due to the vast number of variables at play.
Personal Philosophy or Humor: It might also be a reflection of Musk's personal philosophy or sense of humor, suggesting a preference for embracing the unexpected and unconventional paths in both business and life.
Critique of Media and Public Perception: This statement can also be seen as a critique of how media and public perception often skew towards the most sensationalistic or entertaining outcomes, rather than the most logical or likely ones.
Now, what's entertaining is of course entirely subjective. So I'll tell you what I think is the most entertaining and see if it's even a possibility. If you and many others agree it's most entertaining, maybe it will happen someday, then? Something something self-fulfilling prophecy.
Here's what I have in mind:-
Bitcoin has never been the underdog in crypto. It has only been the status quo since day one.
The most entertaining stories, at least in my mind, are often stories about the underdog vs the status quo. David vs Goliath. There's a universal appeal to it. There's conflict and tension, inspiration and hope. It's everywhere in sports, business, politics, scientific and technological breakthroughs. Dogecoin doesn't feel like the underdog at all. It has been having it pretty easy from the start.
The more obstacles the underdog faces, the more entertaining the outcome would be.
Will the underdog be a memecoin or a seriouscoin? I tend to think that memecoins are a phenomenon of excess in the market, not where people would really put their hard-earned shekels into. So, the underdog is much more likely to be a seriouscoin, much like Bitcoin is a seriouscoin. It needs to be much more serious though, or else I can't see it happening no matter how entertaining it could be.
Bitcoin being dethroned itself is already very entertaining if you think about what happens to the mainstream players like Saylor, Blackrock, Fidelity, crypto celebs, big-time VCs, influencers and such. They'll look like absolute dingleberries. What'd be more entertaining imo would be to have the underdog be a project that has been largely ignored for a long time even though its potential has been and would be in hindsight, blindingly obvious. It makes for great entertainment.
Adding to the fire, a Bitcoin dethronement event in this fashion would also cause huge community reactions, massive narrative shifts, even the bubbling of conspiracy theories. Really good popcorn stuff that'd elevate the underdog into legendary status.
But is it a possibility? I'm not uncertain that Bitcoin will likely get overtaken someday, but wouldn't big-money interests have enough research firepower to be able to spot the underdog from a mile away and be earlier than the rest of the market? ChatGPT said it's possible that the big boys could "miss out" on it:-
In theory, influencers and venture capitalists (VCs) with significant resources should be able to identify promising cryptocurrency projects before the general public due to their access to expert analyses, industry networks, and capital. However, there are scenarios where ordinary people might spot or adopt an underdog crypto first:
Community and Grassroots Movements: Sometimes, cryptocurrencies gain initial traction through grassroots movements within niche communities that may be off the radar of major investors. Individuals who are part of these communities might recognize the potential of a project before it garners broader attention.
Cultural and Social Dynamics: Influencers and VCs may overlook projects that resonate on a cultural or social level but don't initially present strong economic cases. Memecoins, for instance, can grow from social media hype and cultural phenomena rather than traditional business fundamentals.
Decentralized Discoveries: The decentralized nature of cryptocurrency means that new projects can emerge from any corner of the globe, often fostered by small groups of developers without seeking early big-money backing. Enthusiasts who frequent forums like Reddit, Discord, or Telegram groups might stumble upon these projects in their infancy.
Risk Tolerance: Ordinary investors may be willing to take higher risks on unproven, speculative assets. In contrast, VCs often look for projects with a certain degree of validation and a clearer path to profitability, which can lead them to pass over very early-stage opportunities that seem too uncertain.
Quantitative vs. Qualitative Insights: While VCs may excel in quantitative analysis, individual investors may have qualitative insights, especially if they are users or participants in a specific niche that a new crypto project is targeting.
Diversification Strategies: VCs and large investors often have to be more selective and can't invest in every new project due to portfolio strategies, whereas individuals can spread small amounts of capital across many high-risk projects, hoping one will succeed.
Regulatory Constraints: Big investors sometimes avoid certain investments due to regulatory concerns or reputational risks that individual investors may not consider as heavily.
Early Use and Development: Developers, miners, and early adopters are often the first to know about new projects and can sometimes mine or earn tokens before a project becomes widely known.
Time Constraints and Focus: Large investors and VCs may not be able to deeply explore every emerging project due to time constraints and their focus on larger, more established ventures.
Echo Chambers: Influencers and VCs can sometimes be caught in echo chambers that reinforce existing beliefs and biases, making them less likely to notice or believe in an underdog project.
If you think about it, an underdog taking over the big boys by surprise is really within the realm of possibility. There are no rules in the universe which says that the big boys would even know what to look for, let alone believe in it in the first place. Most of them are just playing by the status quo and reinforcing it. Until they get disrupted ofc. Many such cases in other industries throughout history.
That said, I think Tau.net's $AGRS taking the cake would be the most entertaining outcome. It's a serious af seriouscoin. The potential is blindingly obvious too as there's really no competition or to-be competition found anywhere else. There will be many great stories and market insights to be told once the product is up and running.
It fits everything I've just said earlier. I could’ve written pretty much the same thing for the AI game too.
Last but not least, it’d also be a romantically entertaining outcome for its cast of believers, which adds to my point. I have a harem of waifus whom I've been talking about this crypto like a madman since forever. They're probably the only people left in this world who truly take what I have to say seriously, even though I have yet to produce any results after years of slow swapping out a chunk of our sats and vits for $AGRS. Love y'all bebes, if you guys are reading this.
Now please send it before they beat me up :P
https://twitter.com/theonlypunk101/status/1723653280117797055
- theonlypunk101