I think EOS is doomed. At least for the short term. It may revive itself later (and I hope it does) but for now it's got nowhere to go but down.
My assumptions for readers of this post:
- You have invested or are thinking of investing in EOS
- You understand the multi-stage token distribution of the EOS ICO (If not details are here: https://www.eos.io/ click "tokens", "Get EOS", check the boxes and click "continue")
- You have invested with the intention of making money: Believing in the idea of EOS is secondary.
So assuming we are all on the same page with the above, here's why I think it's time to sell:
Showing my working:
-EOS hit the market after its 5 day initial offering. In that first 5 days it collected 651,902 ETH ($185M) for 200M tokens so that it hit the market worth roughly $1.
-This means that to maintain this value over the course of its remaining 336 days of ICO, every day needs to net 6,519 ETH ($1.85M)
-If that were to happen, EOS would have gained a total value of $806M. Keep in mind this figure is to maintain $1 per token.
-At the time of writing the EOS market cap is $477,981,684 and the value is $2.75
-To maintain $2.75 every day needs to net about 18,000 ETH ($5M)
What this means
The hype was enough to get some big investors (and many small ones) throwing money at the ICO initially, but the hype must die off. Big investors looking to profit-take are already getting out of their existing holdings and, equally importantly, ceasing adding funds to the ICO. This is driving the price down by increasing the average token amount assigned per ETH contributed.
What I'm doing
I'm getting out.
I believe in EOS. It's going to be great. I believe it deserves our investment. And now it has it. If $400M can't pay for production of the platform they set out to create then the platform can't be created.
Then what?
I'm getting back in. The price is going to drop. Significantly. Possibly back down near the $1 point. Then I'll get back in.
This is all just my opinion and my best guess based on the evidence I've been able to collect.
Feel free to disagree, let's discuss. What do you think?