The Atlanta Fed forecast a Q1 2018 GDP for the U.S. economy of 5.4%. This was the highest prediction since 2012.
Today, the forecast was lowered to 2.6.%, a 52% decrease in less than a month.
After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators and durable manufacturing reports from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of the contributions of real nonresidential equipment investment and real inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.45 percentage points and 1.20 percentage points, respectively, to 0.37 percentage points and 0.95 percentage points, respectively. The nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth declined from 0.6 percent on February 16 to -4.5 percent on February 26 after housing market releases from the Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors.
This is in line with the trajectory for the last couple years. We are now seeing a repeat of the 2017 level.
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