The bitcoin game rages on. And so does its price volatility, which can rise and fall by 1,000 points in a matter of days.
That’s good for bitcoin traders, provided that they are smart and lucky enough to buy and sell at the right time.
But for investors, bitcoin price volatility is just “noise” which makes it hard to see the position the digital currency will be in, let’s say, years from now.
The bitcoin game rages on. And so does its price volatility, which can rise and fall by 1,000 points in a matter of days.
That’s good for bitcoin traders, provided that they are smart and lucky enough to buy and sell at the right time.
But for investors, bitcoin price volatility is just “noise” which makes it hard to see the position the digital currency will be in, let’s say, years from now.
To figure that out, my student Greg Giordano and I have been doing some econometric work lately. Greg ran two econometric models
the Haye’s model and the Wheatley models—see table 3. On the one side, the Haye’s model predicts a price of $55,931.60.
Coin Price
Bitcoin (BTC) $7,408.53
Ethereum (ETH) $414.22
XRP 0.44!
As of 8/3/18, at 9.30 pm
All its Source is : Coinranking.com
And
"Investing in cryptocoins or tokens is highly speculative and the market is largely unregulated. Anyone considering it should be prepared to lose their entire investment. Disclosure: I don't own any bitcoin, Greg Giordano owns bitcoin"
Table 2
Number of Cryptocurrencies That Advanced/Declined In The Top 100 Ranks
Cryptocurrencies Advance/Decline Number
Advance 7
Decline 93
The source is Coinmarketcap.com 8/3/18
Two Forecasts For Bitcoin’s Price In 2020
Forecasting Model 2020 Price Notes
Hayes $55,931.60
Bitcoin mining difficulty will increase at 7% monthly rate (last two years the rate was 14% monthly)
Wheatley $2,352.03 Transactions/day will follow same pattern of monthly rate increase at 2%
“ Wheatley’s model is known to value bitcoin at a much lower number,” explains Greg. “Their paper is known to state bitcoin’s total market cap at around $20 billion when the actual number is over $130 billion.
Therefore Wheatley’s estimation is one that points to bitcoin’s intrinsic as much lower than all other estimates I have seen. MIT did a comprehensive review on Wheatley’s.
However, I believe there is still value to be found in Wheatley’s estimation.”
But not that much value will be left to investors who buy at these prices, if the prediction of the model comes true.