A Harvard Business Review Article for those who waste time trying to decide what to do in light of several courses of action*
To make a good decision, you need to have a sense of two things: how different choices change the likelihood of different outcomes and how desirable each of those outcomes is. In other words, as Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb have written, decision making requires both prediction and judgment.
https://hbr.org/2018/01/3-ways-to-improve-your-decision-making
Rule 1: Be less certain.
Rule 2: Ask “How often does that typically happen?”
Rule 3: Think probabilistically — and learn some basic probability
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