Since the very first consoles came into our homes in the early 1970’s, they’ve all come on physical media. From cartridges to discs, our games were delivered in a format we could easily buy, sell, trade and lend.
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo are undoubtably hard at work crafting the next generation of hardware for their respective platforms, but with the rise in digital marketplaces like Steam, the PSN Store and the Nintendo eShop, how long will games on physical media be necessary?
A changing landscape
Before the PS4 and Xbox One were revealed, there were rumors floating around that those consoles wouldn’t contain a physical media drive at all. Thankfully, their reveal proved that to be false and games continued to be available at retail on disc. Microsoft took a ton of PR damage early this generation, which may be the reason they’re so far behind Sony at this point, when it was revealed that the Xbox One would not allow gamers to play used copies of games on the console. Each game would be digitally tied to a single console, and to use a used copy of a game you would need to pay an additional fee to register it on a different console.
Not surprisingly, this policy was swiftly rejected by gamers. Microsoft scrambled and quickly cancelled this ‘feature’, however the damage was done and gamers flocked to the PS4 this generation. As of today, Sony has sold 80 million Playstation 4 consoles, compared to just 37 million Xbox Ones.
Attitudes are changing though, and as more people become accustomed to downloading games instead of buying them from a store, we’re going to inch closer to the end of the physical game era.
What will next generation look like?
As of last year, digital sales for full games on the PS4 was hovering around 40%, and that number continues to climb year after year. Some figures tout that 3/4 of video game sales are digital. While technically true, those figures include both Steam and phones. Buying a digital copy of Bloodborne is significantly different than downloading Candy Crush on your phone.
So even if we reach a 50/50 split by the time the next generation of consoles is ready, will the big three be ready to pull the plug on physical media?
Lets assume that most of the 50% who buy physical games have access to a high-speed home Internet connection. Will they all adopt an all-digital future? Here’s how I expect it to play out.
Microsoft goes all digital with the Xbox Two
With the lines between a Windows PC and the Xbox blurred this generation, I think Microsoft will go all digital next generation. Their audience leans more towards ‘disposable’ titles like ‘flavor of the month’ FPS games, sports and racing games that get minor sequels and incremental updates year after year. There’s far less attachment to games in those genres and Microsoft showed they want to free themselves from physical media, so I fully expect them to ditch the disc 100%.
Sony and Nintendo keep the physical media option
With Sony, I think they’re still a bit too reliant on physical media and having a brick and mortar footprint to abandon the disc just yet. While they’ll push digital next generation, I think they’ll keep the disc for at least one more console. With them being behind blu-ray, it seems silly to ship a console that doesn’t play the movie format they pioneered.
As for Nintendo, I’m sure they’ll keep a physical drive next generation due to how they do business. They’ve made it clear that they’re not following Sony or Microsoft’s lead since the Wii, and having both a retail presence and an easy way for family, aunts & uncles and grandparents to pick up games as gifts for kids is an important part of their strategy. Nintendo fans also tend to be older and more dedicated fans than those on other consoles and wanting to own a physical copy to put on your shelf seems to be far more important to Nintendo fans than gamers on other platforms.
So what do you think? Who will go all digital next generation and who will keep a physical media drive around for at least one more console? Let’s discuss!
Thanks for reading. As always, upvotes, resteems and comments are appreciated!
Cover Image Source: KBIA.org