Would you rather have 10 cents in your pocket or a 1-in-10,000 shot at $1,000?
Many people would choose the latter, and that could be the key to getting people to recycle more, a new University of British Columbia psychology study has found.
The researchers tested the idea of offering people who return used bottles a tiny chance to win a big cash prize, instead of the typical 10-cent deposit return. The result was that people recycled 47 per cent more bottles.
“This small change in how we reward recycling made a big difference. People were more excited, more engaged, and they brought in more bottles,” said Dr. Jiaying Zhao (she/her), associate professor in the department of psychology and senior author of the study published this week in Waste Management. “It turns out that the thrill of possibly winning a big prize is more motivating than a small guaranteed reward. It’s the same reason people buy lottery tickets. That tiny chance of a big win is exciting.”
The study took place in B.C. and Alberta, where bottle deposit systems are already in place. But even though these systems give people a small refund when they return empty beverage containers, many bottles still end up in the trash.
The researchers ran three experiments. In the first two, people could choose between a guaranteed 10-cent refund or a chance to win a larger amount—like $1, $10, $100 or even $1,000. The odds of winning were low, but many people chose the lottery-style option.
In the third experiment, people were randomly assigned to either the guaranteed refund or the lottery-style refund. Those in the lottery group brought in almost three bottles for every two returned by the other group.
The study also found that people felt happier when they had the chance to win a big prize, even if they didn’t actually win. This feeling—called “anticipatory happiness”—made the recycling experience more enjoyable.
"Norway is the only country in the world that has a similar recycling lottery, and their bottle return rate is close to 100 per cent," said Dr. Zhao. "The probabilistic refund could be their secret sauce. We hope Canada can adopt this innovative idea as well."
To bring the idea to Canada, the researchers suggest starting with pilot programs at selected bottle depots. These trials could test how well the lottery option works in real-world settings before expanding it across provinces or the country. In Norway, “reverse vending machines” let people return bottles and choose between a guaranteed refund or a lottery entry. These machines could also be installed in Canada to make the process easy and automatic.
Importantly, the lottery-style refund wouldn’t cost any more than the regular system. Both options have the same average payout. That means cities and provinces could adopt this approach without spending extra money.
The researchers say it’s important to keep the guaranteed refund option, especially for people who rely on it for income. Offering both choices ensures fairness and flexibility.
If adopted widely, the researchers estimate that this approach could help recycle millions more bottles and reduce greenhouse gas emissions equal to taking one million cars off the road each year.