My favourite of the majors is upon us. I will go to my grave defending The Open as the best golf tournament of the year, and most desirable of the majors to win. The Masters is probably the nerviest major and really puts players through the wringer on that famous back 9 on Sunday, but I see it’s cloistered nature and inaccessibility as more of a bug than a feature. In stunning fashion, and seemingly every year, the US Open continues to trip on its own dick and diminish its legacy with set-up and rules debacles. The PGA Championship is also... a major.
In my mind, that leaves The Open as the clear stand out. It has a great mix of history, famous courses, classy fans and the elements. Most importantly, it tests player’s abilities to hit different shots better than the other majors. This year it heads back to Carnoustie - regarded as one of the tougher tracks on the Open rota, and home to one of golf’s greatest collapses.
Alright, I’m done pontificating. Time for some picks. Inevitably, The Open is a bit trickier to handicap as the weather can have a significant impact and toss some of the best picks from contention. As always, I’m using Bodog for the numbers.
The Big Dogs:
Rickie Fowler - Okay… so I’m on record as saying “don’t bet on Rickie”. But I’m going to employ the “broken clock is right twice a day” logic on my Rickie pick this time around. He seems bound to get one at some point, and hopefully I’m right this time. Normally I ignore Rickie because his betting line is usually a bit garbage (and it kind of is again) but I like him to win an Open more than the other majors. He’s a self-professed links golf fan and has had lots of success on these types of tracks with a Scottish Open win in 2015 (and another high finish this past week) and a runner-up to Rory at The Open in 2014. This year he was also T2 at the Masters and T20 at the US Open with an 84 on that screwy Saturday when the USGA ruined the course. Let that sink in for a sec. Of all the top picks I’m most confident in him. 16-1.
Sergio Garcia – It feels like Sergio has been in “IDGAF” mode since that Masters win, but with Ryder Cup season approaching I think he gets his game face back on. Despite his well-documented history of coming up short, he's actually had an incredible history at the Open. Since 2000, he’s had 10 top-10 finishes, and only missed the cut twice. His sublime ball striking and slower greens will be a nice combination this week. 25-1 is tasty enough for me to get in on the action.
Alex Noren - Nobody in golf flys under the radar like Noren does. Basically his only blemish in 2018 was back-to-back missed cuts at the Masters and Wells Fargo. Otherwise, he’s dominated in Europe and just won the French Open. His game is in-form and 28-1 works for me.
Mid-range value:
Sorry, Bryson. It's compass-free at Carnoustie.
Bryson DeChambeau - Is he annoying as hell? Yes. But it’s kind of a harmless annoying. Not like Patrick Reed levels of annoying, so you’re safe to bet on him. High finishes all year and a win at the Memorial. Not sure what he’s doing at 66-1. Snap him up.
(NOTE: Bryson just withdrew from the John Deere on Day 1 this past week. This does not phase me. I’m putting my tinfoil hat on and saying there’s a 95% chance he faked it to get out of the tourney and rest up for The Open. He has pulled this type of move before, and was likely only at the John Deere out of obligation as the defending champ. Three extra days to get over the jet lag and practice at Carnoustie were probably worth the “WD”).
Patrick Cantlay - I’ve had my eye on this guy ever since he finished runner-up to Adam Hadwin at the Valspar. Very talented player who has been on a steady climb through the world rankings. I’ll take him at 80-1.
Ian Poulter - Lots of people hate Poulter, and I get that. But you have to give credit where it’s due. Poulter’s game went south a couple years ago and he has really come back from the brink. He barely kept his PGA Tour card after discovering a weird technicality that saved him in the 11th hour, and he’s taken full advantage. He was not exempt for this year’s Masters but gutted out a playoff win at the Houston Open to snatch the final spot. He’s also mixed in a few top-10s and some missed cuts at The Open. So I’m either expecting either feast or famine. Worth a roll of the dice on 50-1.
Long shot/Value plays:
Thorbjorn Olesen - The future looked quite bright for the Dane a few years ago before he lost his way a bit. He’s just started to find his groove on the Euro circuit though with a win at the Italian Open, T2 at the BMW and a T6 at the Irish Open. 100-1 is very nice value for this sleeper.
Danny Willett - OK. Wait. Hear me out… After that surprise/breakout Masters win, Willett’s game spiralled into the toilet faster than an 8-ball at the stash house with the cops at the door. But he has a T8 at the Italian Open, and T6 at the Irish Open in his last four starts. Yes, basically everything else has been missed cuts, but at 125-1, would a little sprinkle really be such a bad idea? (disclosure: Willett made me bank on that Masters win, so I concede there may be some favouritism at play. Bet accordingly.)
Ryan Fox - Simply a case riding the hot hand. A couple high finishes at The Scottish and Irish Opens have piqued my interest. Worth a sprinkle at 125-1.
Avoid:
Bubba Watson - Bubba has never really had great results at The Open, which is quite surprising given his creativity and shotmaking abilities. Maybe the weather and unfamiliarity don’t jive with his redneck sensibilities? I don’t know. Anyway, he’s back in form this year, and 50-1 looks tempting, but I’d suggest avoiding him this week.
Jordan Spieth – Steer clear of the reigning Open champ. Other than a solid showing at the Masters, he has not had the greatest form this year. No value at 16-1.
Justin Thomas – Far be it for me to criticize a guy who was very recently #1 in the world ranking, but I just find his game ill-suited for these conditions. The bazooka driver - his biggest weapon - will be handicapped a bit if the wind picks up at Car-nasty.
And there you have it. A bunch of picks that will go to shit when a storm blows through one morning. Good luck!