At the end of my final pre-Gameweek 17 post, I mentioned that I'd probably tinker a bit prior to the deadline and I did (but not much)...
In my Gameweek 17 core players post, I mentioned a Twitter user called Ben Crellin who is the master of predicting when games will be rescheduled and he had a very high probability of Brighton Doubling in Gameweek 21. He also had a possible Double for Arsenal (v. Everton) and these potential doubles influenced my thinking prior to the deadline - especially as GW21 doesn't look great for me at the moment.
So I experimented with my ratings by including these additional fixtures and decided to swap Raya for Brighton's Robert Sánchez. They are the same price and Sánchez represents a decent upgrade if the Double is confirmed.
This also increased the appeal of Arsenal's defenders, in particular Gabriel and a switch from Luke Shaw to Gabriel was very tempting - as was upgrading Hugo Bueno to Ben White. But... Ben White would have sat on my bench until Gameweek 21, by which point I'll probably be looking to move Luke Shaw on anyway. So a switch from Luke Shaw to an Arsenal defender makes a lot of sense from Gameweek 20 (assuming the Double is confirmed of course).
The other player I'd be interested in is Leandro Trossard. I've previously discussed moving Rashford to Rodrigo but a switch to Trossard is a viable alternative.
So with 4 Free Transfers between now and Gameweek 21, I've got 3 transfers in mind:
- Salah → De Bruyne (giving me triple Man City)
- Shaw → Gabriel / White (giving me double Arsenal)
- Rashford → Trossard (giving me double Brighton).
Barring any emergencies (I wrote my intro prior to GW 17 starting), my 4th transfer could bring in a third Arsenal.
I'll wait for the fixtures confirmation and if it happens, my move for Sánchez will put me in a slightly better position to take advantage.
🔍 Gameweek 17 Review
If you haven't already read it, @hivefpl (@talesfrmthecrypt) has written an in-depth review of every game so I won't do that - I'll instead share my thoughts based upon my team... which scored an impressive 102 points:
As @hivefpl wrote with regards to Miguel Almirón:
There are better options in regards expected goals but while he remains on this hot streak, you'd be a brave man to leave him out.
For me, Almirón was a 50/50 decision against Martin Ødegaard with me opting for the Norwegian. So when Almirón scored for Newcastle in the 3pm kick off, I thought "here we go again" after getting every 50/50 wrong prior to the World Cup. Fortunately, Ødegaard didn't disappoint, putting in a Man Of The Match performance against West Ham, bagging himself 2 assists and a 3 point bonus. Phew!
The other 50/50 was Salah v. De Bruyne with Salah winning out for Gameweeks 17 to 19 (at least). It was another decision which went my way where earlier in the season, it probably wouldn't have done.
On the negative side, Reece James has picked up an injury and is expected to miss 3 to 4 weeks. Given the congested fixture schedule, this will probably mean 6 matches over 5 Gameweeks so he'll be my transfer out (which I'll get to later).
I also ran the Pep Roulette gauntlet with Phil Foden and lost. Mostly lost anyway - his cameo saved me from bagging Perraud's own goal and -2 points.
The only other player to blank was Darwin Núñez - a player who consistently underperforms his xG but I have faith that he'll come good (or lose his place to Cody Gakpo).
So a good return to action after a successful Fantasy World Cup with an overall rank rise from 972,361 to 598,082 and moving up to 15th in the Hive FPL League (72 points off top).
💫 Reece James Replacement
Courtesy of another Reece James injury, the most pressing transfer that I need to make is replacing him in Defence. Over 380k managers have made this decision at the time of writing with Marc Cucurella and Luke Shaw the most popular replacements. I'm never one to blindly follow the crowd though so it's time to get those Player Ratings out again (with another week of data added) and see who I should be considering.
Since I already own 3 Man Utd and am saving a Man City slot for De Bruyne, I'll exclude them from my ratings, along with a price cap of £7.0m.
I've mentioned the Spurs pairing of Ryan Sessegnon and Ivan Perišić enough for me to quickly skip past them and then it comes to a direct swap to another Chelsea defender.
Whilst James and Ruben Loftus-Cheek are injured, César Azpilicueta will almost certainly have the Right Back spot to himself (assuming Chelsea continue to play a back 4). I don't know how confident I am of this but I look at the alternatives and there's probably more doubt surrounding them...
Marc Cucurella has the threat of Ben Chilwell (who's also injured) and Lewis Hall is preferred when Chelsea play with Wing Backs. Trevoh Chalobah looked a good bet going into GW 17 but didn't start against Bournemouth and Thiago Silva is surely going to see more rotation given his age. I'm also not sure how certain Kalidou Koulibaly is to start and he's the most expensive of them all.
I do like the Arsenal options but not yet and the only other player who appeals to me is Andy Robertson but I'm yet to see enough from Liverpool defensively so another one I'll swerve for now.
So really, it's slim pickings and César Azpilicueta is a cheap option who should get good minutes so he's the player I'll be looking to get in.
👪 My Gameweek 18 Lineup
Things are looking strong again assuming that everybody starts. Haaland is an obvious pick as captain and is already close to matching last season's Golden Boot total of 23 goals - Salah has a strong fixture at Home to Leicester but betting against Haaland isn't something I'm ready to do yet.
My Man Utd triple-up travel to Wolves who despite their win at Everton, look very light up front (not literally, Diego Costa's a beast). Speaking of Everton, I'd love De Bruyne to complete a triple-up but I'll have to hope Foden isn't benched again - I'd also love to know what's going on there.
I'm also banking on Chelsea's defence holding strong at the City Ground which could go either way really.
I shouldn't need my bench and I'm tempted to swap Andreas Pereira with Romain Perraud before tomorrow's deadline.
💪 Team Strength
Things are still looking strong for the next 3 Gameweeks and the expectation that there will be some Doubles introduced to Gameweek 21 could change things significantly.
The latest rumour is a Man Utd matchup against Leeds or Crystal Palace (depending upon FA Cup results) which I'd be well placed for. I'd need to know prior to GW 20 though as I was planning to move Rashford or Martial on at that point.
🗨 What do you think?
As always, I'd love to hear your thoughts so please share them with me in the comments below. With Reece James' ownership so high, I have little doubt that many of you have the same challenge as me going into Gameweek 18.
