The 2nd Test of the Ashes Series kicked off last night (Australian Time) at Lords – The Home of Cricket. There was a lot of buildup to this game after the way the 1st Test played out and once again there were a few unknowns I was hoping to get a handle on before making a post about my betting for the game. It seems like the best time for me to write these posts up is after Stumps on Day 1 so here goes.
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The English had spoken about wanting Flat and Fast wickets for this series, but the pitch at Lords was looking pretty Green in the lead up and BOTH teams indicated they wanted to Bowl First at the Toss. This was a bit of a surprise to me as I had expected Bat First would be the way to go for the whole series. England also ditched their under-performing spinner and decided on a 4-man pace/seam attack which was also a big strategic change from what I was expecting...and also a strategic error in my book.
The English gambits at the Toss and Team Selections already look to be backfiring to my eye after just 1 day. Australia were sent in and weathered the early swing and seam movement to record a very decent 339 for 5 on Day 1 and I personally think this is an outstanding outcome for Australia to start the match. The market agrees, having shortened to 1.60 for Australia to Win. My first observation here is that it might be hard to find value in this game and I might have missed my opportunity by falling asleep before the Lunch Break - which is when I was planning to have my first bet to back Australia for Runs...
David Warner looked good and I would have backed him To Score a Century before the match started if the pitch wasn’t looking so greenish, but he fell for 66 so while I was kicking myself for a bit when he was flaying the English bowlers to all parts I saved my dollars there. I’ve noted that he might be a special to back for a Century in the 3rd Innings if the setup is right (insert disclaimer). There is more rain forecast in London overnight and some cloud cover expected on Day 2 so with a new ball in hand it could be a bit tricky for the Australian Tail-Enders to bat in the next session. I’m tempted to still back Australian Runs with the line quite low at about 470 but it’s just too risky with the weather and new ball in play so I’m holding off there too. There is also a risk Australia will Declare under 470 but I do think that’s pretty unlikely.
I expect England to try to explode out of the gates when they do get to bat on Day 2 and with the pitch flattening out a Run Rate over 5 would not surprise me at all. Australia went at over 4 runs an over on Day 1 which is very decent considering they were sent in to bat in tricky conditions, but I can see Englands Batsmen coming unstuck if there is a bit of swing and seam movement still around. I don’t rate Starc much on recent form, but Hazelwood will be a big seam threat and Cummins will have grown another leg after his heroics in the previous game.
It’s probably around the 3rd Innings where I see some potential value coming into the betting markets if the game is not too lopsided. The pitch does look like it might get a bit of low/uneven bounce and it could also be a bit slow so it’s the late game where I see that big edge for Australia getting even bigger for this game in particular. England is relying on Joe Root for spin and I think that’s an even bigger issue for them in the spin department than Ali was in the first match. With England likely batting last on a slower, lower wicket against the GOAT spinner Nathan Lyon I can see them going bravely for the win with a big aggressive chase but falling short due to attempting too many loose shots (Stumpings and big Top Edges?) – possibly losing by a decent margin.
So my ideal scenario is probably for Australia to get about a 100 run lead in the first innings and then getting clear skies with a dry pitch to set a big total of 400+ for England to chase. Hopefully I’ll still be able to get a decent price for Australia early in the 3rd Innings but the English punters may capitulate if England get skittled for under 250 first up. Any price under about 1.50 for Australia to win is likely going to be too short so I am still hoping for England to make a decent game of it.
Good luck if you’re having a bet and – more importantly – enjoy the Cricket!
UPDATE : After Day 2 the injury to Nathan Lyon literally changes EVERYTHING. I'm going to pivot into Australia 3rd Innings Runs (instead of the win) and the Warner Century bet is on if I can get a price of 7.00+