I have a love/hate relationship with McGregor. For one thing, he brought huge fanfare to the sport and even people who don't watch MMA know who he is. There is a reason why he got (and perhaps gets) paid more than any other fighter in the history of MMA and that is because he is a promotional machine. His skills on the microphone and trash-talking is basically unparalleled and it was actually because of this that I started to dislike him. It was around the time that he was attacking buses in NYC that had my fill with him.
That being said, his ability as a tactician in the octagon is undeniable.
Michael Chandler on the other hand, seems to be a bit of a hothead that lacks patience and this could get him in trouble with McGregor, even though Conor has had 3 years off.
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Chandler is incredibly fit and when he moved over from Bellator he appeared to be the "next big thing." It only took a few matches though to realize that there was one major problem with his strategy. Well probably 2 if you consider that he has, at least in MMA terms, a bit of a glass jaw.
When he came into UFC in 2021 and KO'd Dan Hooker in two and a half minutes of the very first round, everyone stopped and took notice of this guy that appeared as though he was going to tear through the entire roster, Goldberg style.
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UFC predictably put Chandler on a fast-track to the belt from that point forward and because of his physique and explosive power, it was just assumed that he was going to dominate at lightweight. That would all come crashing down just a few months later though when he was dispatched by Charles Oliveira very early in the 2nd round.
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It was in this fight vs Oliveira that I sort of saw a rather massive flaw in Michael Chandler's overall strategy. He is the Ricky Bobby of the lightweight division in that he either finishes first or crashes the car trying to do so. In round 1 of the fight vs Oliveira, Chandler was relentlessly attacking in a way that was certainly using a ton of energy. When he failed to finish the fight in the first round he was noticeable gassed during the round break. This 30 second break or whatever it is in UFC took its toll and Chandler was KO'd in a very similar fashion to what he had done to Hooker before we even got to 20 seconds. Now to be fair to Michael, almost anyone that takes a hit like he did from Oliveira is going to go down, but this doesn't change the fact that Chandler doesn't seem to be the type of fighter that wants to go 5 rounds and in a way I applaud that.
Things wouldn't really get any better for him in later fights as he would end up losing to Poirier and Gaetje with a win over Tony Ferguson in the middle. How it is that a guy with more losses than wins in the UFC is ranked number 7 in the world overall, is beyond me. I guess it is just because there isn't much more talent to speak of below him aside from Tony Ferguson, who he already defeated.
The matchup with Conor is going to be an interesting one because I believe that Chandler has better physical power and endurance than McGregor, but he appears to be more than a bit of a hothead when it comes to his fights.
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This fight with McGregor has been a long time in the making with a ton of hype and bad blood mixed in there. Chandler is going to have to step up a weight class to welterweight for it to happen as well. This is one factor that could work against him because as prone as he is to gassing at lightweight, will he be even more likely to do this at welterweight?
Chandler needs to find some sort of brainpower in this fight if he is going to make a show of it. He has a tendency to come out of the gate screaming fast in the hopes of destroying his opponent in the early moments. In the times that he has done a different strategy, as he tried against Gaetje, he seems to conserve a bit TOO MUCH and doesn't do enough to win on the cards. His apparent patience vs Poirier ended up getting him submitted. So it is tough to know what to tell Chandler to do if you are in his corner. The fast paced swarming has worked for him in the past, but if he doesn't get the job done quickly, it has been shown that it is unlikely that he is going to get it done at all. Conor on the other hand, is considerably better at having an intelligent and paced strategy in the octagon.
Many people very close to the sport have already predicted that Chandler needs to finish Conor in the first round or he is going to lose. Conor is probably aware of this and will be doing his best to kind of force Chandler to make energy burning decisions in round 1.
I think that if Chandler and his corner are smart, they will play opossum in the first round and try to goad McGregor into being the aggressor and perhaps give Conor the impression that he has this one in the bag, then explode in the 2nd, perhaps 1 minute in. This is also risky because Conor has shown that if you are trying to play a run away game with him, he can KO anyone with a fast left. Just ask Jose Aldo.
Regardless of what happens Michael Chandler is always entertaining and therefore a fan favorite. He seems to be fighting for the fans and this is what keeps him at the top of cards even though at least in UFC, he has a losing record. This fight with Conor could break him though if he loses badly. Will he be able to remain mentally strong and pace himself? I certainly hope so.