Perennial underachievers Punjab Kings faced yet another tough tournament last year. Could IPL 2024 finally see them qualify for the playoffs for the first time in a decade?
That poor past record is certainly a massive monkey that Punjab appear unable to shake off their collective backs and looking at the strength of their squad relative to others in IPL 2024, they will need all their star players to fire for if they are to have any chance of success this time around.
PBKS Review of 2023
It's worth considering Punjab's 2022 season in context before talking about what happened in 2023. 2 years ago, PBKS were going gung-ho from the off, sacrificing early wickets for fast starts. As the stats below for IPL 2023 show, they continued to lose plenty of early wickets but weren't able to get the runs on the board.
PBKS weren't helped yet again by a significant number of injury problems throughout the season. Jonny Bairstow's broken leg ruled him out for the duration while the likes of Liam Livingstone and Kagiso Rabada were also unavailable for the early part of IPL 2023.
Shikhar Dhawan also missed 3 games through injury but still finished as the top run scorer which highlights the paucity of quality in the top order. Prabhsimran Singh did hit an early season century but offered very little thereafter.
Despite their top order struggles, PBKS did still manage to achieve the highest run rate at the death of any side in IPL 2023. In part that was helped by the 2 matches they played in the altitude in Dharamshala but with Jitesh Sharma, Liam Livingstone and Shahrukh Khan all scoring over 100 runs each during the last 5 overs of matches, PBKS demonstrated they have the fire power to hurt opposition, if only they had a better base to build from.
With ball in hand Arshdeep Singh led the attack well with 17 wickets, bowling in the powerplay and at the death with equal skill. Meanwhile Nathan Ellis also had an impact with 13 wickets in the 10 matches he played.
Ellis' inclusion was generally at the expense of Kagiso Rabada who only played 6 matches in IPL 2023. It meant that the PBKS attack lacked that real game changing bowler, particularly when you consider that their frontline spin options of Chahar and Harpreet Brar are very much containing rather than wicket taking bowlers.
One of the most damning stats for PBKS last season was their home form. They won just once at home all season and that came in their opening game of the tournament against KKR courtesy of a DLS calculation that went very much in their favour. That win came in Mohali, while PBKS finished off their season with 2 IPL matches at the HPCA Stadium in Dharamshala.
Given that they managed to win 5 out of their 7 games on the road including defending a score at the Wankhede and winning in Chennai then PBKS could well look back at last season as a missed opportunity to finally return to the playoffs.
PBKS IPL 2024 auction
The Kings most notable piece of business in the auction was the acquisition of Harshal Patel who adds depth to the bowling stocks particularly through the second half of the innings. He is also vastly experienced and will add much needed leadership amongst a squad that will be reliant on players with little experience of the IPL.
The other 2 big signings that PBKS made were Rilee Rossouw and Chris Woakes. Rossouw had a fairly difficult time of it with Delhi Capitals last season while Chris Woakes has always been seen as a horses for courses type bowler during his previous stints in the IPL.
Where PBKS missed out was in signing back Shahrukh Khan with GT out-bidding them for the services of the big hitting right-hander. Given that Shahrukh had his most successful season to date in IPL 2023 and was a major factor in the success the Kings had at the back end of the innings then that feels like a significant loss.
PBKS squad strengths and weaknesses IPL 2024
Career T20 records v types of bowling and in phases of the game
As alluded to above, one of the big concerns for PBKS coming into the tournament will be the lack of experience in their squad. Shikhar Dhawan has been there, done it and got the t-shirt and as has been the case in the last couple of seasons, the Kings will be very much reliant on him to hold it together at the top of the order.
Outside of that, Bairstow, Livingstone and Roussow have been around both international and franchise cricket for a while but it seems unlikely that PBKS will be able to accommodate more than 2 of them in their starting XI with a couple of overseas slots also needing to go to bowlers/all-rounders.
In fact, you could make the argument that PBKS have had a pretty poor return on their overseas investments these last couple of years so banking on any of the aforementioned or the likes of Curran and Rabada seems high-risk and it could well be that PBKS are forced into blooding a few youngsters before going back to the drawing board in the mega auction at the end of the year.
While the stats above show that Bairstow represents their most complete batting option, his form coming into the tournament is poor and he has played very little T20 cricket over the last couple of years. He's always looked best in white ball cricket as an opener but PBKS are desperate for some quality in that middle order.
Despite the loss of Shahrukh Khan, Jitesh Sharma and Liam Livingstone do represent good options for the final 3rd of the innings but as we've seen so often with PBKS in recent years, getting them the platform to actually win matches looks likely to be a challenge.
On paper, PBKS then have some strong all-rounder options but once again it looks likely that they'll be forced to pick 1 or perhaps at the very maximum 2 out of Curran, Woakes and Raza.
Career T20 bowling stats by phase of the game
A fully fit and firing PBKS pace attack has the potential to cause problems for any batting line-up in IPL 2024.
In Arshdeep Singh and Kagiso Rabada they have quality options who can be effective right through the 20 overs while the addition of Harshal Patel means that PBKS can look to attack with the new ball safe in the knowledge that they have a middle and death over specialist to come.
Harshal had a disappointing IPL 2023 campaign at least in comparison to the 2 seasons prior but you'd imagine that he will enjoy being able to bowl away from the M Chinnaswamy Stadium where 6 hitting at the death is substantially easier than in Mohali.
In the event that Rabada isn't ready to go then PBKS do have decent back-up options in Nathan Ellis and Chris Woakes. The former is better suited to bowling later in the innings while Woakes will swing it early on and has at least added some variety for the middle overs.
Again, the PBKS spin attack lacks that real impact bowler who might be able to wrestle back control of a match with a couple of wickets. Rahul Chahar needs to improve on his 8 wickets from last season but does at least come into the tournament off the back of a successful Vijay Hazare Trophy campaign where he took 18 wickets in 9 matches including 2 x 5 wicket hauls. How PBKS would love for him to put in a couple of performances like that for them.
Harpreet Brar, as with several of his PBKS teammates, should know the conditions here well as they play for Punjab in the domestic tournaments. Using that knowledge of pitch conditions at the IS Bindra Stadium could be crucial but as recent records at the stadium suggest, taking wickets with spin has been a problem.
Coupled with that is the high-scoring nature of the venue in recent games. Given the weaknesses in the PBKS batting line-up it seems unlikely that their bowlers are going to be given the luxury of defending many above par scores during the coming season and that could once again count against them.
PBKS IPL 2024 Predictions
I think it would be unfair to say that PBKS were 'lucky' to get 6 wins last season but when you look at the matches that they were successful in, most of them were very close finishes that on another day could have gone the other way. By contrast, several of their defeats were by far more sizeable margins including against the 2 sides that finished below them in the league.
It suggests that to compete, this PBKS team has to play to their full capacity. That's perhaps not a wholly unreasonable statement to make about any side in what is a very competitive tournament but in comparison to many of the top teams in the IPL, Punjab have too many gaps that can be exploited for them to have even an average day and expect to win.
While writing these previews, I've been considering what a difficult task it will be for many of the franchises in selecting the handful of players they will be allowed to retain prior to the super auction at the end of the year. However, it becomes a much simpler ( or harder depending on the way you view it) equation for PBKS.
Who would you really want to keep in this PBKS squad if the super auction was tomorrow? Arshdeep Singh seems a good shout but beyond him I'm not sure that you could make a truly convincing argument for the retention of anyone else based on their IPL performances over the last couple of seasons and what they might be able to offer in the future.
PBKS do have a few players in their squad who if they come off could win a match from any position but they'll also be reliant on blooding several inexperienced cricketers at this level from the off.
All in all it looks likely that Punjab's long wait for a playoff finish is set to continue for at least another year...
Predicted finish: 9th
All stats used in this blog are from my own database which is freely accessible at T20 head to head. Images are my own with the exception of player profiles and background images which are used under a creative commons license or otherwise royalty free