I love my fantasy football and discussing it with others so please share your thoughts with me...
Having had an ok Gameweek 27 so far (Man City v. Southampton still to come), scoring 55 points (overall rank of 186,200)...
...I've decided to follow the over 300,000 (net) managers who transferred out Mo Salah over Gameweeks 26 and 27 and the over 220,000 who have transferred him out since the last deadline (at the time of writing) - I also want to move him on before I lose the value I have in him with him being predicted to drop in price tonight. For the past 3.5 seasons, FPL fans not owning Salah has meant 90+ minutes hiding behind the sofa whenever Liverpool play. In recent weeks (blanking 11 out of 14 gameweeks, averaging 3.7 points per game), there will be few managers hiding anymore. With £2.5m already in the bank, I have the pick of the field in finding a replacement.
My Research
I'll begin by saying that I'm saving my Free Hit for Gameweek 33 as I believe it will serve me better then, which means I'll be targeting players who play in Blank Gameweek 29. I don't want to focus solely on this gameweek and tend to look with a horizon of 5 matches so which teams stand out from this respect? I use a custom, weighted spreadsheet which processes data far simpler and without the bias that I introduce.
This has given me a few teams to choose from that don't have a blank GW29. Arsenal are the standout candidates here (I've got something in the back of my head screaming Aubameyang at me) and I'll also look at midfielders from Brighton, Spurs, West Ham and Leeds who despite a slightly weaker "gorilla-rating" (Ok, it's a rubbish name but I need to call my data something"), could provide a better option than Arsenal.
So to do this, I look at expected goals (xG), expected assists (xA), threat and creativity metrics for each team's past 5 matches to see who stands out and this has left me with the following shortlist (ordered by xG+xA)...
Now I must confess at this point, it's not much of a shortlist and shows how much we consider and try to weigh up each gameweek. Now to save my time (and yours - I'm impressed you're still with me!), I'll concentrate on the top 6 players in this list, down to Gareth Bale.
- Raphina (£5.5m) - Leeds
- Son (£9.6m) - Spurs
- Lingard (£6.1m) - West Ham
- Aubameyang (£11.4m) - Arsenal
- Gross (£5.8m) - Brighton
- Bale (£9.4m) - Spurs
Now I know this isn't Pascal Gross's fault, but I transferred him in in Gameweek 13, only for Graham Potter to drop him and play him once in the next 6 matches so there's a little bitterness here.
I've got Son already and Lingard is ineligible to play in the next match. Of the remaining 4, I'll keep Aubameyang (because gorilla-data has a preference for Arsenal) and Raphina who stands out. Not only is he top for xG + xA and top for Threat + Creativity but he's also a guaranteed starter.
The Subjective Bit
Having got Aubameyang in the back of my head still, this is where I need to fight against my confirmation bias. Are Arsenal focussed on the Premier League or is the Europa League where their priorities lie? Arsenal are currently 10th, 12 points off a Champions League spot and with 10 games to go, will they push to close that gap or will they focus on a potential trophy and route through the Europa League into the Champions League. This then poses the question of Aubameyang's game time - 300 minutes played out of a possible 450 signifies that Arteta's not afraid of rotating his club captain. But despite playing fewer minutes, Aubameyang's got penalties in his pocket and has more than double the expected goals tally than any other player shortlisted over the past 5 matches. And if Arsenal get knocked out of Europe and they finished 10th in the League, will Arteta keep his job? Can he afford to take that risk?
Then there's Raphina and Leeds United. Ok, so a game at home to Chelsea coming up next doesn't strike me as the best time to be getting the Leeds man in, but Aubameyang has a North London derby to contest. Chelsea's defence has been so impressive since Tuchel took over that this move would be 1 week too early in my opinion - fixtures against Fulham and then Sheffield United that follow feels like much better timing.
So I'm leaning towards Aubameyang again, accepting the risk that his game time might be managed. So one final check, where's he touching the ball? Is he in and around the penalty area or drifting wide?
Plenty of penalty area touches but to be honest, I'm not entirely convinced - this touch map is heavily weighted by an impressive hat-trick against Leeds. Aubameyang and Raphina don't look like the right transfer to make just yet. But I want rid of Salah NOW. I don't like the fact that Arsenal play again on Thursday, risking injury and rotation on Sunday. I don't like the fact that I could lose £0.1m on Salah if I don't act today.
The Big Decision
I tend to play an aggressive, higher risk game so let's do it.
👋 Goodbye Salah
🤝 Welcome Aubameyang
Have I done the right thing??