With the recent defeat in Soledar and potential retreat from Bakhmut will the delivery of western tanks help Ukraine defeat Russia in their Spring Offensive?
Last week Ukrainian forces retreated from the strategically important town of Soledar and yesterday Russian forces confirmed the clearance of this heavily fortified town. Videos abound on Telegram of large numbers of dead Ukrainian soldiers and destroyed/abandoned equipment, which litter the streets and buildings across Soledar. This defeat has prompted the US and its western allies to up the ante and decide to send Ukraine a small number of the main battle tanks. Apparently, these ‘formidable’ weapons of war will play a decisive role in Ukraine’s spring offensive and which will inflict a major defeat on Russian forces.
In February 2022 Ukraine started the war with hundreds of Soviet era tanks largely made up of T64 and T72 models. During the course of the year the US and its western allies sent hundreds of Soviet era tanks such as the T72 to Ukraine. However, as Russia is ‘losing’ the war in Ukraine the West now needs to send its ‘invincible’ tanks to support Ukraine’s upcoming spring offensive.
The first country was France with its decision on 4 January to send its lightly armoured AMX-10 tanks to Ukraine. This then opened the door to announcements by other NATO countries. The UK has now announced that it will send 14 of its ageing Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. Tanks due to be retired in 2025. Poland and Finland have announced their willingness to send small numbers of the German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. However, they require German permission for this to occur and the German government appears split on the issue and has yet to give its permission for the export of the ‘coveted’ Leopard 2 tanks.
If you listen to western journalists and military analysts these western ‘wonder weapons’ will make a decisive difference on the battle field against poorly trained and poorly led Russian tank crews who have suffered ‘very heavy’ losses over the past year.
Questions
However, these developments should raise a number of questions in the mind of anyone with an open mind.
Firstly, if Ukraine has large numbers of tanks, made up of tanks sent by NATO, captured Russian tanks and its own stocks, then why does it need small numbers of western main battle tanks?
Secondly, if Russia is ‘losing’ the war as all western military experts agree then why up the ante and strain relations with Russia even further by sending their main battle tanks to Ukraine?
Thirdly, will this small number of western main battle tanks make any difference on the battle field?
The answer to questions one and two is simple. Firstly, Ukraine has lost hundreds of tanks during the course of the fighting and is in desperate need of heavy armour to supplement its forces if it is to stand any chance of launching a spring offensive. Secondly, the defeat at Soledar has sparked alarm in the west as Ukraine’s whole front line from Seversk down to Donetsk is in danger of collapse.
Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut which is just to the south of Soledar, have taken very heavy casualties numbering well over ten thousand, and are under attack from the west, south and north. Several media reports have suggested that General Zaluzhny, chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, has recommended a withdrawal from Bakhmut to a new defensive line but Zelensky has refused permission for this.
Zelenksy's refusal to countenance strategic withdrawals at Soledar and Bakmut reflects pressure from the west with Ukraine’s president feeling the need to appear ‘strong’ as his country is allegedly winning its war with Russia.
The most important question is whether the delivery of western main battle tanks will make any difference on the battle field?
The first point to make is the small numbers of tanks pledged so far. The UK has pledged 14 and Poland is talking of sending another 12-14 tanks. Even if these tanks are as formidable as western military experts claim then I would be surprised if such small numbers would make any great difference on the battlefield.
Another problem these tanks will face will be the problem of their weight. Most of these tanks are about 20 tonnes too heavy for Ukrainian bridges which will impose some limits on their manoeuvrability.
Military analyst and former US marine, Brian Berletic has made the point that these western weapons will impose huge logistical burdens for Ukraine. He notes that Ukraine will have to send these tanks for repairs and maintenance to Poland. They will also create training burdens for Ukrainian troops as these tanks are very different from each other. For example, the Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 tanks use different ammunition and both require an additional crew member (gun loader) which will increase training demands for Ukrainian forces.
Berletic makes the further point that western tanks have proven to be vulnerable to Russian made anti-tank weapons. In 2006 Israel lost nearly 50 tanks to Russian made anti-tank weapons used by Hezbollah. Since 2015 the Houthis in Yemen have destroyed over 20 American Abram tanks as part of their operations against the invading Saudi forces. In January 2019 in northern Syria the German Leopard 2 tank lost its reputation for nigh invincibility when Isis forces destroyed over 10 them in combat with Turkish armoured units using Russian anti tank weapons.
The final point Berletic makes is that if Ukraine uses these western tanks in their spring offensive then they will face a major problem which is being ignored by military experts in the US and Europe. The problem they are ignoring is the fact that Ukrainian armoured units using western tanks will be going into battle without sufficient artillery cover. Most estimates put Russia’s artillery superiority at 10 to 1. To compound matters, western tanks will be going into battle with no air cover, while Russia has hundreds of warplanes and attack helicopters. Western tanks will face a Russian army reinforced by 300,000 additional men plus large numbers of modernised T72 and T90 tanks. Lastly, one can add the fact that Russia is successfully using suicide drones such as the Lancet to destroy Ukrainian tanks and artillery.
Conclusion
If you put all these factors together it puts a huge question mark over the effectiveness of western supplied tanks in any future battles in Ukraine.
It appears that the US and its NATO allies have only one response to the war in Ukraine. Increase the supplies of weaponry and financial aid as well as stepping up sanctions on Russia which have had a very detrimental effect on European industry and consumers due to high energy prices.
Sadly, it appears neither side is interested in diplomacy and during 2023 we face the prospect of a drawn out military conflict which will impose a great deal more death and destruction.