Let's start off with definitions. The youth bulge term refers to a demographic situation where there is enough young men (16 to 25 or 25 to 30) to cause social unrest for any reason they find valid.
Note that if there's any other protest going on, for political, ethical, or economic reasons, these unemployed men will tend to join in.
The unemployment rates correlate with crime rates: "Some evidence of a relationship between unemployment and crime persists [...]", which is another problem to deal with, beside protests.
What is so peculiarly different about men; why not women are the problem? Well, it had been empirically established that men are, statistically, more aggressive than women – violent, even.
That explained, let's move on to Russian demographics:
The surplus of men lately, eh?
But the surplus of male population alone is not indicative of anything. This particular chart does not signify the presence of the youth bulge. And we find it in another source, by a Russian author, compiled from the official state statistics.
This here explicitly shows that the age group of 25-29 was the most numerous compared to the others in 2012. Those aged 20-24 occupied exactly the top-2 spot. Now we have a proof: yes, there was a youth bulge in Russia in 2012, and there still is one now, in 2022, if we take into account all the men in their 30s.
Before I go on elaborating any further, here I throw another quick fact: there was a massive, unexpected, strident student protest that involved hundreds of thousands of people in 2011-2012. The protesters went against Putin's regime and demanded fair elections. Every time the protest repeated (for the same reasons) in the subsequent years, the police swiftly bashed it and sent protesters home – or in PDs. The protest leaders traditionally ended up in jail, Alexey Navalny being the most prominent of them.
By the way, Kristo Grozev from Bellingcat said in his interview to Dmytro Gordon that Russia began to invest noticeably large sums into anti-Ukrainian propaganda in 2012. Meh, just a coincidence, right?
There you have it. Youth bulge. Student protest. Whatever country can have "a surplus of men" or, particularly, a large portion of young men, without noticeable negative implications. In the case of Russia, these men reacted to the strengthening of authoritarian regime and social injustice in general.
It is not the only reason—yet a sufficient one—what they could have been upset about. Perhaps the unemployment stats can give us some more insights?
Source.
Nope. Various sources provide different estimates of the unemployment rates in Russia. The chart above shows that the most values lie in the range of 4.5 to 6. These are the percentages.
Meanwhile, Investopedia defines the rates of 3-5% as "perfect", according to "most experts". Nothing too worrying here?
How about income and wealth inequality?
Source.
Note that the last time the balance swang in favour of the common people (the bottom 50%), following the apparent dominance of the elites, was sometime close to the Great October Socialist Revolution of 1917. And it clicks for me.
The Individual Wealth chart basically conveys the same message: the poor are getting poorer – and making the rich richer, as Kiyosaki would put it.
Looks depressive.
"Income inequality however remains very high, compared both with the Soviet era [...] and with other countries", concluded the European Parliamentary Research Service.
But let us retain some objectivity and compare the gap with one other country's. You can freely select any from the dropdown list on the World Inequality Database (link above).
I will list the USA chart:
The Top 1% are not so close to owning 50% of wealth as in the Russia's case, evidently.
Well, it's capitalism! And how else is American capitalism different from the Russian?
I'll tell you how:
- Sergey Brin left Russia and founded Google.
- Pavel Durov founded the VK social network, got it expropriated from him (effectively fired from his own company) for refusing to cooperate with the gov-t, and left Russia.
- Oleg Tinkov, renounced Russian citizenship and currently fights with his own banking company to get his name removed from it (Tinkoff Bank)
- Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former owner of Yukos oil company, then a prisoner of conscience, served his time (13.5 years) just for speaking up to Putin openly. Left Russia soon upon the release.
All the Russian "elites" who allegedly own almost 50% of national wealth are affiliated with the authoritarian corrupt gov-t. Either that or exile, prison, death. Depressive! No place for liberasts here!
This depression reflects in the suicide rate.
Russia proudly sits in the top-10 on the list of countries by suicide rate, by male suicides.
Here is some more evidence that Russian State Security Committee (or whatever) purposefully wipes out its problematic male population: the young ones and the ethnic minorities, to be exact.
The "no conscripts" lie
Russian gov-t lied that conscripts are not going to take part in the "special military operation". Plenty of them, in their twenties and younger, have died since February 2022: they were thrown into the fire right from the start.
The conscripts were lied to, as numerous interviews reveal, that they were just going to take part in military training.
Then their families were lied to that they have "gone missing". One notable case is connected to the sank cruiser "Moscow", only because a father of one of the conscripts serving there was a public person. "The ship was not included in the list of military formations and units taking part in the special military operation" and "didn't enter the territorial waters of Ukraine". Yes, the usual Kremlin lie; so usual that none of its blunt blatant falsehood impresses me any more. But what is the intention behind it?
В начале мая Дмитрий Шкребец опубликовал письмо от военной прокуратуры Черноморского флота. В нем говорилось, что его сын объявлен "безвестно отсутствующим в воинской части", а сам корабль не входил в территориальные воды Украины и "не был включен в перечень воинских соединений и частей, привлекаемых к участию в специальной военной операции".
The "missing" status is so convenient for the gov-t because they don't have to pay the compensation to the families of the deceased. Which is why the official losses of the Russian Army amount to about a couple of thousand but only a quarter of them are considered dead. A couple of thousand, while the satellite data suggest that the number is approaching a hundred thousand dead and injured so far. Whew! It would have been millions of rubles in payouts!
And a more recent case, October 2022: a conscript got killed on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Notably, his mother asked him if he's at least armed. He replied that, yes, but there's no point in rifles because the soldiers were not given ammunition. They stood guard with empty magazines. 'No one gives a damn about our boys', the mothers admits.
Genocide and assimilate the native ethnic minorities
Most of the Russia is not "russian", as you probably know. Since the start of the "special military operation", activists and various public organization representatives all around Russia have noticed that the most war casualties occur in the outskirts of the empire, and almost none in Moscow or St. Petersburg.
One reason is that the economic condition in these regions is such that men have no other choice than to join the army voluntarily. These legendary warriors consequently steal water closets and washing machines in Ukraine and become the heroes of memes. And if they don't... Valhalla awaits.
The Wagner PMC ironically entice wannabe looters with a washing machine, in Russia.
So yeah, the wealth gap and all the depressive reality that follows corrupt totalitarian regimes pushes them to go and either steal all the things they deem valuable or die, literally. At the same time, the gov-t pushes them in the back. They get targeted ads, as you can witness. They are brainwashed into believing in the notorious Ukrainian Nazi, the godless, satanic, anti-russia coalition in the West, or whatever. And just recently, as Russian President had announced mobilization, they are taken from their work places and educational establishments and thrown, not so politely anymore, into the cauldron of war, as it were, a sacrifice to the XXI century Moloch.
Genocide and assimilate all the aboriginal ethnic groups that live on the expanses of the empire. Make them speak the same language, worship the same "god", obey the same corrupt gov-t, imprison and assassinate the most prominent protesters, force everyone else into fear, teach them to love the "Motherland". That's what empires do.
MSK and SPB were not safe anymore because, remember, that's where most of the students exhibited "unacceptable" behavior in 2012. Conscript them, too.
As Putin once addressed its complaisant audience, "What, do you want it like in Paris?", («Вы что, хотите, как в Париже?»), referencing the hot protest of the Yellow Jackets in France. It basically gave away his own, and his circles', desire not to let it happen like in France. Or, god forbid, like in Ukraine. And they are definitely willing to go to great lengths to not let it happen. Because the corrupt elites and their immediate servants must stand tall. The labor force, the cannon fodder, and the breeding stock must stay low. Not like in France, when the gov-t backed off after the protests sparked, and not like in Ukraine, when an authoritarian pro-Russian president lost his sh*t under the pressure of the Maidan protesters and fled over the border to Rostov.
The prisoners are a liability... or an asset?
So, the Wagner mercenaries are given carte blanche to recruit more men among the prisoners, and the particularly lucky ones of those will be granted a presidential pardon and a handful of state awards for courage, looting, murder, and rape of Ukrainians. Losing a limb certainly adds them some merit in the eyes of the State.
The mercenaries do not care about the severity of crimes, and they no longer care about infectious diseases like Hepatitis and HIV. It's a great way to put an otherwise problematic part of the Russian male population to use. And it bears fruit!
Russian "voenkor" admitting the effectiveness of convict warfare: 'The situation began to change in Autumn, with the appearance of convicts in the ranks of the "musicians". They were immediately thrown to assault and began to push the positions. They really had no other options because they would get *** for failing the mission.'
The Wagner PMC is referred to as the "musicians".
Seems like the Soviet legacy of penal battalions and not-a-step-back units returns. It won't be long until the good old concentration camps come back, and the world would admire new Russian Dostoevskys and Solzhenitsyns with a compassionate tear.
The AFU do not eliminate the problematic surplus of Russian males fast enough
Which is why Russian regular army's officers have to shoot them in the back.
The Dozhd' channel (tvrain) published an interview with the mobilizands' wives where the latter claim that their husbands are not fired at by the khokhol (derogatory for Ukrainian), they are fired at by their own.
https://t.me/tvrain/59705
"Позвонил муж. 1-ю роту отправили вперёд. Вернулось оттуда всего семь ребят. Вернувшимся ротный нарисовал кресты зелёной краской, связал им руки, начал их бить, мол, они дезертиры. Затем этих семерых забрали, больше их никто не видел.
Отправили другую роту, 4-ю. По рации они услышали фразу "игрушки прибыли, можете стрелять". Их убивают свои же солдаты. Они начали отходить, потому что в них полетели снаряды от наших же солдат. Другие ребята сказали, что они видели в полях, что это наши же по ним бьют.
Все говорят о том, что их объявляют дезертирами. Они не дезертиры, но их уничтожают свои же ребята. Их не бьют хохлы, их бьют наши. Всех наших просто убивают".
"My husband called. The 1st company was sent forth. Only seven boys returned from there. For those who returned, the company commander painted some green crosses on their hands and started to beat them calling them deserters. Then they took away those seven and no one ever saw them again.
They sent another company, the 4th. They overheard the phrase "the toys have arrived, you can shoot" on the radio. Their own soldiers are killing them. They began to retreat because they were shelled by our own soldiers.
The other boys said that they saw in the fields how our own were firing at them.
Everyone says, they are declared deserters. They are not deserters, they are getting killed by their own boys. It's not khokhol who fire at them, it's our own. All of them are simply getting killed."
Which is not a single evidence of "mistreatment" in the ranks of Russian military.
Concerning the difference between the "elites" and the... others
Listen to Putin himself, speaking at the meeting with conscripts' mothers, implying that those unfortunate lowlifes would die prematurely anyway:
"All of us are going to leave this world one day. It is inevitable. Question is, how we lived. Some people, do they live, do they not, it is not clear. And how do they go? From vodka or something. And then they are gone, and whether or not they lived, is not noticeable. Your son – lived. And his purpose is fulfilled. It means he left life not in vain."
"Мы все когда-нибудь из этого мира все уйдем. Это неизбежно. Вопрос в том, как мы жили. Некоторые ведь живут или не живут, непонятно. И как уходят? От водки или еще от чего-то. А потом ушли, и жили или не жили - незаметно. А ваш сын жил. И его цель достигнута. Это значит, что он из жизни не зря ушел".
That's a typical nihilist in power speaking. Sure, better die with a righteous cause of protecting the President's palace and Patriarch's wristwatch, for ex-wives and mistresses of other high-ranking officials, such as Peskov, Shoigu, and Lavrov, and their children who study and live in Europe, of course.
Their children are royal blood compared to which other citizens are basically cattle when it comes to rights and freedoms:
Сыну Пескова ведущий позвонил под видом военкома. Он сообщил, что тому была отправлена повестка, и предложил явиться для медосмотра в московский военкомат на следующий день в 10 утра.
«В 10 утра, естественно, завтра я не приеду… Если вы знаете, что я господин Песков, вы должны понимать, насколько это не совсем правильно, чтобы я там находился. Короче, я буду это решать на другом уровне», — ответил собеседник Низовцева.
[A video show host] called Peskov's son under the guise of a military commissar. He said that a summons had been sent to him, and offered to arrive for a medical examination at the Moscow military registration and enlistment office the next day at 10 AM.
'At 10 AM, naturally, I won’t come tomorrow... If you know that I am Mr. Peskov, you must understand how it's not quite right for me to be there. In short, I will decide this at a different level,' said [the host's] interlocutor.
Source.
Nearest Russian future... is 200-years-ago Ottomans Empire (or else)
The society consisting of a ruling militarist elite and all the others, that is: eunuchs, hordes of low-rank soldiers, hard-working artisans, sold-ass court "scientists", and, of course, the surplus of women!
Knowing how crazy the Kremlin blokes are, I can easily imagine it being their deepest phantasy.
And the experience of the Socialist Revolution is something they probably don't want to repeat in their history again. Let me remind you some moments before the revolution: Czar Nicholas II, (now proclaimed a martyr and generally sympathized by imperialists) resigned from throne before being brutally executed with his family (1918) in the face of massive social unrest. But it was too late and the military took the side of the protesting workers, refusing to open fire at them instead. The first military regimens that revolted were from the western parts of the-then Russia: modern Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, and others, by the way.
Rewind it some 100 years back and see the failed Decemberist Revolt (1826), which resulted in the execution of its five ideological leaders, noble men, really, who stood for "abolition of serfdom" at least and to "abolish the monarchy, establish a republic, [and] to redistribute land [between the state and] among the peasants". The failure of the Decembrists was followed by a bloody trail of persecution, torture, and executions, so you can imagine the mood that simmered in the society all the years before Nicholas II was killed. And a couple months before the Decemberists' execution, the pro-government authoritarian group massacred the liberal protesters shooting artillery at them point-blank on the Peter's Square.
Rewind it 100 more and more, and you'll see how Russian Empire occupied everything west from Moscow (in the usual way, massacre, bribery, and deceit) but that's not the point.
The point is: do you want to repeat the story of Nicholas II or do you want to keep the power? So how do you make people even more stupid (or naive), deprived of freedoms, and disorganized than they were a century ago? - Mass media propaganda! The cult of authority! Repression! "Orthodox" "Christian" "faith"! Oh, and identify all compassionate intelligent men who can do something upsetting to the gov-t or, god forbid, lead a revolt. These require special attention. Nemtsov, Navalvy: assassination and "democratic" imprisonment after a failed assassination respectively.
You gotta think centuries ahead. Brainwash them while they're kids. This should work:
Then this:
Good. Now they are ready to die for the Motherland.
A handsome young man, pretty face, probably quiet and soft in character from birth, probably bullied in school, grew hateful and resentful of himself, and then decided never to be weak again. Who knows? Why else would he pass some stupid initiation rite of killing and consuming a puppy? Meet Alexey Milchakov (Алексей Мильчаков):
I'm not going to post anything NSFW now, but he actually filmed the continuation. What follows? Maybe he ends up gnawed by dogs somewhere in Ukraine. Maybe a fellow war veteran stabs him in the side during a drunk fight. What I want for him is to think deep about what he fights for. Ontological-level deep. And realize that the real enemy is in Kremlim. The enemy of freedom, fraternity, and equality as such.
The closing statement. And my gratitude for taking interest and reading this far.
I wouldn't get down to writing this if I hadn't read a chat statement of a Russian woman in a Russian chat. She said, the gov-t is conducting androcide. And it triggered me. See, it's not even my idea. They have some grounded suspicions about the state of affairs.
We should, of course, take it with a grain of salt because there are some other Russian women who assume that "Jews are manipulating Slavs to fight and kill each other while they celebrate the success of the operation in both Kyiv and Saint Petersberg". Jews again, who else, it's a no-brainer. Her point of view quickly garnered a handful of comments along the lines of "you deranged bitch", and rightly so. Maybe it wasn't even a "she" - meaning that sowing discord with the help of fake accounts and bots is a part of Kremlin's strategy: "divide and conquer" worked at at all times.
Yet, for instance, at a certain point, the Americans couldn't believe that their gov-t massively spies on them, effectively abolishing the right to privacy, and it was considered a crazy conspiracy theory until Edward Snowden came out with grave evidence that it is truly so.
The time goes by and there is only more evidence that nihilist Russian rulers don't care about human lives, justice, or formal laws, and do care about their position in power, money, and a stable supply of cocaine from Argentina.