The 2024 US Presidential Election May be Decided by Less than 200,000 Votes
The election for President is determined by the electoral votes, which are proportional to the population of each state. There are a total of 539 electoral votes 270 is the threshold for victory. In the 2020 General Election, Joe Biden was credited with 306 electoral votes, and Trump with 232.
Trump could have won 38 electoral votes, with only 100,000 additional popular votes in a few specific states. The chart below presents selected states where the margin of victory was relatively low.
States Trump Must Hold
From the chart there are three critical states that Republicans must win again in 2024 for Trump to be elected - North Carolina, Florida, and Texas. Current polls of the Trump vs Biden matchup have Trump leading in all three states; poll this far out should be taken with a grain of salt. Of the three states North Carolina had the narrowest absolute margin of victory with Trump earning approximately 74,000 more votes than Biden.
States Trump Must Win
Returning to the charts there are seven (7) states where Biden had a narrow margin of victory: The 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska, Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Here are some combinations that would get Trump the additional 38 votes and win the election.
38 Electoral Votes
Georgia (16) 11,779+ votes
Arizona (11) 10,457+ votes
Wisconsin (10) 20,682+ votes
Nebraska 2nd Cong. Dist. (1) 22,091+ votes
~65,000 additional votes needed.
38 Electoral Votes
Georgia (16) 11,779+ votes
Michigan (16) 154,779+ votes
Nevada (6) 33,596+ votes
~200,000 additional votes needed.
43 Electoral Votes
Georgia (16) 11,779+ votes
Michigan (16) 154,779+ votes
Arizona (11) 10,457+ votes
~177,000 additional votes needed.
The Margin of Victory May be Narrow
There are several combinations of states that would earn Trump the additional 38 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency. The Party and Campaign that focuses their effort in the critical states, will win the election. Outside of a landslide outcome, the 2024 Presidential Election will likely be decided by less than 250,000 popular votes.