Despite flashes of optimism, all signs still point to a Bitcoin-dominated market.
If you’ve been watching the crypto market hoping for the long-awaited altseason—that golden period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin—you might want to hold off on popping the champagne. According to analysts, we’re still firmly in what some are calling an altcoin winter, and the data backs it up.
What Is Altseason, Anyway?
Altseason is a term used to describe a market phase where altcoins—cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin—begin to outperform BTC in both momentum and gains. Traders often see it as an opportunity to make outsized returns as coins with smaller market caps start to surge. But despite recent hype around Ethereum and memecoins, we’re not there yet.
Bitcoin Dominance Remains Unshaken
A key metric for gauging the likelihood of an altseason is Bitcoin dominance—the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that belongs to Bitcoin. Right now, Bitcoin accounts for more than 55% of the total market. Historically, when Bitcoin’s dominance is that high, altcoins struggle to gain meaningful ground.
To put it in perspective, the Altcoin Season Index, a tool that measures market momentum in favor of altcoins, currently stands at 23 out of 100. For an altseason to officially kick in, at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins need to consistently outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period. Currently, only six meet that criterion.
“We're Still in an Altcoin Winter”
According to Burak Kesmeci, an analyst at CryptoQurant, the numbers paint a clear picture: “Altseason is so far off right now that we’re still deep in an altcoin winter.”
Source: CryptoQurant
That means despite small rallies and hopeful signs, the broader altcoin market is underperforming, and Bitcoin remains king of the hill—for now.
Ethereum Showing Strength, But It's Not Enough Not all hope is lost.
Some analysts see the recent uptick in Ethereum’s performance as a glimmer of what's to come. The ETH/BTC ratio has been climbing, which historically has been a precursor to altseason.
“Historically, a rising ETH/BTC ratio is one of the earliest signs of an upcoming altseason.”
And then there’s the world of memecoins, where risk appetite appears to be growing again. Coins like the freshly launched Useless Coin have seen sudden, dramatic gains. This kind of speculative action can often signal early risk-on sentiment among investors, which tends to precede altcoin rallies.
Still, these seem more like isolated cases than signs of a full-blown shift in market dynamics.
Final Thoughts: Keep Your Bags Packed, But Don’t Leave Yet
There’s no denying the crypto market is full of surprises—but for now, the numbers simply don’t support the idea that an altseason is upon us. While Ethereum's performance and memecoin mini-rallies are intriguing, Bitcoin dominance is still too high, and the broader altcoin market hasn’t shown enough strength to turn the tide.
Conclusion: Altseason isn’t canceled—it’s just delayed. Until we see broader outperformance from altcoins and a drop in Bitcoin dominance, it’s wise to remain patient and cautious.