Hi Everyone,
In my post Eye Opening Year of 2020 – Part One: Covid-19 Catastrophe, I briefly discussed some of my concerns regarding the Covid-19 vaccines. One of my greatest concerns was the rapid introduction of vaccines. The vaccines were developed and approved in less than one year from when Covid-19 was discovered. The flu vaccine took over ten years and many other vaccines took far longer. The post also raised concerns over the lack of disclosure of information about the vaccines as well as the possible ‘side-effects’. Instead, the Government and mainstream media focused on how the rollout should be carried out.
A couple of months have passed since the start of vaccine rollout but many of my concerns remain. It appears that the vaccines may have some serious negative effects. A group of doctors have voiced their concerns in a letter to the European Medicines Agency. These concerns relate to possible negative effects such as autoimmune reactions, blood clotting abnormalities, stroke and internal bleeding. These concerns are not isolated to a few doctors. Several countries temporarily halted the rollout of the AstraZeneca vaccine over concerns regarding blood clotting. However, the rollout of other vaccines such as Pfizer and Moderna has faced minimal resistance in most countries.
Despite these possible ‘side-effects’, the vaccine rollout has been rapid and becoming extensive in many countries. Figure 1 contains the number of vaccination doses administered per 100 people for countries with the most widespread rollout.
Figure 1: Vaccination per 100 People
Source: Our World in Data, accessed 25/03/2021
Many of these countries are pushing to have their entire adult populations vaccinated before the end of 2021 or sooner. Vaccinating such a large number of people in such a short time with vaccines that are arguably experimental given the short development period should be concerning to anyone.
Some countries keep records of reported adverse reactions to vaccines. The USA have the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) and the UK have Yellow Card Reporting. These systems keep track of information such as number of negative reactions, hospitalisations, and deaths, which have been reported as being possibly linked to vaccination. Figure 2 contains data from VAERS.
Figure 2: VAERS Covid-19 Reports until March 12 2021
Source: OpenVAERS
Initially, the raw numbers appear alarming. However, it is important to consider the number of people vaccinated in the USA (i.e. 65.97 Million people received at least one dose as of 12 March 2021 or 47.18 Million people at the end of February if we allow for 2 weeks between vaccination and the report of the incident (Our World in Data)). It is also important to consider the high number of elderly people vaccinated. Elderly people may have a higher chance of an adverse reaction and have a higher chance of falling sick from other illnesses within the period following the vaccine. What should be of greater concern is if young healthy people start having serious adverse reactions to the vaccines. The numbers from VAERS might be indicating this is the case. Figure 3 contains the breakdown of Emergency Room and Urgent Care Visits by vaccine, sex, and age group.
Figure 3: Emergency Room and Urgent Care Visits until March 12 2021
Source: OpenVAERS
The number of urgent care visits from the 25-50 age group stands out, as it makes up about half the number of cases requiring urgent care even though this age group had not received the majority of the vaccines at the time of reporting. The 25-50 age group are considered a low risk age group for serious illness caused by Covid-19. This group of people might be putting themselves at a higher risk by taking the vaccine.
The United Kingdom have a higher incident report rate than the USA. GOV.UK claim that there are about 3 to 6 Yellow Cards (reports of adverse reactions) per 1,000 doses of vaccine. As of March 14 2021, an estimated 594 people may have died from adverse reactions from the vaccines. Figure 4 contains data for reported adverse reactions in the UK.
Figure 4: Vaccine Adverse Reaction Reported in the UK until March 14 2021
Source: GOV.UK
Figure 5 provides a little more perspective on the number of adverse reactions by comparing the number of people vaccinated in the USA and UK.
Figure 5: Number of People with at least one dose of a Covid-19 Vaccine (UK and USA)
Source: Our World in Data
One of the greatest concerns should be about the number and extent of long-term adverse reactions to the vaccines. The long-term adverse reactions would not have been adequately tested for in the very short time frame of the development and rollout of the vaccines (not a medical opinion, just common sense). Long-term adverse reactions are also less likely to be reported as they occur after a significant period after the vaccinations. Many long-term adverse reactions could easily be incorrectly attributed to other factors such as other medical conditions, lifestyle, diet, or the environment.
Vaccine rollout during a pandemic
I watched some interesting videos regarding the approaches Governments are taking to combat Covid-19. According to Dr. Geert Vander Bossche, mass vaccination during a pandemic can create serious problems. He argued that the vaccines could speed up the rate of mutation of the Covid-19 virus. This would occur because the vaccine induces the body to produce antibodies to fight the vaccine. This does not necessarily prevent a person from contracting Covid-19 but it reduces the likelihood of disease and serious harm. This causes an infected person to become an asymptomatic spreader of Covid-19. This higher level of resistance forces the virus to find another host more quickly, thus is likely to increase the transmission speed of the virus. As the virus moves more quickly from person-to-person, it is more likely to mutate. As the virus becomes more dissimilar to the original virus (i.e. the virus the vaccine was designed to stop), the vaccine is likely to become less effective (e.g. more recently tested vaccines such as the Johnsons & Johnson vaccine has a lower efficacy than vaccines tested in 2020 such as the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines (The Atlantic)). During a pandemic, the virus is widely circulating within the general population. Therefore, the opportunities to spread and mutate are greater than they would be under ordinary circumstances. Thus, the chances of mutation are much higher than if the vaccines had been administered after the pandemic. See the video below for a comprehensive explanation from Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche.
In another video, Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche and Dr. Peter McCullough raise more concerns about the vaccine 'only' medical approach to tackling Covid-19. The doctors express concerns about the lack of investment in treatments for Covid-19 even though several treatments have shown signs of success at reducing the more serious symptoms. They also express concerns that the vaccines will prolong the duration of the pandemic, as the vaccines are likely causing more transmissible variants of Covid-19. Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche believes a vaccine should be developed to prevent contraction and therefore the spread of the virus. There was also concern around the lack of peer review over the actions recommended by doctors advising the Government. See the video below for comprehensive explanations by the doctors.
In essence, the greatest concern is that the vaccination programs could lead to a longer and more serious pandemic. If this argument is correct, has this been a mistake by Governments or is this an intended consequence. Governments have been able to use the pandemic to increase their power and authority. A prolonging of the pandemic would enable them to justify extending this power and authority. This extension could become so prolonged that these new powers will be considered normal and will not be relinquished once the Covid-19/variant pandemics are considered officially over.
My opinions regarding the Covid-19 vaccines
I am not a doctor nor do I have any professional experience working with vaccines. The information I have is based on information I have researched myself. Therefore, I am dependent on the data, opinions, and expertise presented by other people. However, I can and do form my own opinions based on my research. I strongly recommend that everyone do his or her own research. The expert opinions that are given the most media coverage are not always representative of the majority of experts in that field. Instead, the media presents the opinions that best supports their business. I explain these ideas in more detail in my post Power, Money and Me Me Me.
In my post A closer look at vaccines, I questioned the effectiveness and safety of vaccines in general. The post concluded that there is still insufficient evidence to conclude that all vaccines are both effective and safe. The focus of that post was on the vaccination of children. It considered the fall in the rates of infection in regards to the administration of vaccines and other factors as well as the rise of other childhood illnesses and the relationship to the commencement of vaccination programs. The Covid-19 vaccine is targeted at the adult population, in particularly the older adult population. The Covid-19 vaccine has been developed in a fraction of the time of other vaccines. Several of the Covid-19 vaccines are also using new technology such as mRNA, which should require more testing rather than less. It has not been made clear to the public that the vaccines that they are taking should be considered as experimental and therefore they should expect a higher chance of an adverse reaction. I am more concerned about the safety of the Covid-19 vaccines and the approach to the rollout than I am about the vaccines I have discussed in my previous post.
I believe it is still too early to judge the effectiveness and safety of these Covid-19 vaccines. Considering the extent of the vaccination programs underway, we will soon see the extent of the short to medium term effects of the vaccines as well as its overall impact on the pandemic/s. If the vaccines are effective, the pandemic should soon be over in the countries with extensive vaccination programs. The long-term effects are going to take a lot longer to assess. They will also be easier to cover up as they are likely to be attributed to some other cause and will be difficult to trace to a vaccine.
How can I contribute?
Given my expertise in economics and specialisation in cost benefit analysis (CBA); I can create a basic framework to analyse the costs and benefits of the vaccines. The costs would relate to the development and distribution costs of the vaccines. The benefits would relate to the reduction in serious illness and death caused by Covid-19. The analysis would need to consider negative effects from the vaccines. The analysis should also consider the usage of vaccines against other forms of responses such as possible cures and treatments. The responses (options) can be compared using the Net Present Value (NPV) or incremental Net Benefit Investment Ratio (NBIR). As more data becomes available, this framework can be used to conduct a basic CBA for the Covid-19 vaccines and other responses. This would be considered an ex-post CBA, as it would be conducted based on findings rather than projections. However, the results of the CBA could be used to advise for or against other similar vaccination programs as well as help people make decisions about whether to have certain vaccines or not.
To know more about CBA read my post Economic Concepts – Cost Benefit Analysis (Steps Involved) or sign up to my CBA course described in the post signature.
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