Hi Everyone,
It is time for my annual Super Bowl prediction. I enjoy watching American Football (just referred to as Football in the US). I took to the game when I was young, I was about 6 years old. I think the team outfits and the energy of the game attracted me. They also did not show full games in those days. It was a 40 minute condensed version of the game of the week and quick highlights of the other games. I would have been put off if they showed full games with the constant stoppages and commercials. The first full game I watched was Super Bowl 20 between the Bears and the Patriots. The game felt so long but it did not matter because the Bears were just so awesome. Eventually, I became a fan of the 49ers. They were more fan friendly and had nicer team colours.
Today’s NFL is quite different. It is more about entertainment than the sport. Changes to game rules and technology have made the game more exciting to watch but also less authentic. Games are also manipulated so that they are closer and more dramatic. Teams that attract bigger audiences are often helped to progress further in the playoffs. The NFL is becoming more like professional wrestling, which I also happen to enjoy watching. The objective is to draw more people to the game and make more money. They have clearly succeeded (Read my post Super Bowl – Planned Entertainment for Dollars for more information on how the NFL operates. There is a YouTube channel by Jake the Asshole that highlights some of the likely scripted aspects of NFL games). We just need to see the game differently than we used to but it can still be fun to watch and it can be fun making some predictions; hence, why I make these posts.
This will be my fourth year attempting to predict the Super Bowl teams and eventual winner. So far, I have failed to predict the winner but I have managed to predict at least one team correctly in two of the three Super Bowls. It is an OK track record but I think I could still do a little better. This year, I am feeling quite confident that I will get at least one team correct.
How do the Playoffs work?
The playoffs are set to begin on Saturday 14 January. There are 14 playoff teams (this is14 out of the 32 teams in the league). Seven from the AFC and seven from the NFC. Teams are seeded based on regular season record. Winning the division seeds a team higher than another team that did not win their division even if that team has a better regular season record. If these rules are insufficient to seed all teams, there are several other rules used as tiebreakers. These include head-to-head records, records within their divisions and several others. There is always a way to the seed the teams. Receiving higher seeding has some advantages. The top seeds from each conference receive a bye week and are given homefield advantage until the Super Bowl. The next three teams are Division winners; they have home games in the first round (referred to as the Wild Card round). Homefield is determined by seeding. The higher seeded team plays at home.
This season could be a little different for the AFC. The Bills and the Bengals played one game less than all the other teams. This was because their game was cancelled due to the Damar Hamlin incident (discussed later in post). If the Bills had won the game, they would have obtained the number one seed. To compensate the Bills. The league decided that if the Bills play the Chiefs (number one seed based on an extra win), the game would be held on a neutral ground. If the Bengals had won the game, they would have obtained the second seed. However, if the Bengals play the Bills, the game will be held in Buffalo and not a neutral ground. This seems like an oversight that could be changed if the two teams were to meet.
Teams in this Year’s Playoffs
The teams in the playoffs for the AFC are as follows based on seeding.
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Buffalo Bills
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- San Diego Chargers
- Baltimore Ravens
- Miami Dolphins
The teams in the playoffs for the NFC are as follows based on seeding.
- Philadelphia Eagles
- San Francisco 49ers
- Minnesota Vikings
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Dallas Cowboys
- New York Giants
- Seattle Seahawks
The first round games are as follows:
AFC
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers
NFC
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Analysis of Teams
Before I start making my predictions. I want to make a brief analysis of all 14 teams based on statistics from the regular season. Below are the regular season records, points for and against and recent form (last 5 games) for all the playoff teams.
Source: NFL
Seven teams standout in terms of win-loss records. Eagles, 49ers, Vikings, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals. They have won 12 or more games in the regular season. Six of these teams have point differentials of 96 points or more with the 49ers and Bills standing out from the pack. The Vikings have scored less points than they have conceded; indicating narrowing victories and some bad defeats. In terms of current form, five teams have won five of their most recent games. These teams are the 49ers, Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, and Jaguars. Based on regular season performance and recent form the 49ers, Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals stand out above the others.
I have looked a little deeper based on the performances of the team’s offenses and defences in terms of yards per play and turnovers. I have also considered penalties for and against as well as strength of schedule. See these statistics below.
Source: ESPN and Power Rankings Guru for strength of schedule
Note: %TO is the percentage of plays resulting in turnovers, Play is yards per play, SOS is the strength of schedule
For most teams there is a trade-off between yards per play and turnovers. More aggressive offenses are more likely to turn the ball over. For example, Seahawks, Chiefs, Dolphins and Bills have high average yards per play and high number of turnovers. Giants, Buccaneers, and Bengalis have relatively low yards per play but also low number of turnovers. The Eagles and 49ers have managed relatively high yards per play while keeping the number of turnovers relatively low.
The defences that standout are the Eagles, 49ers, Cowboys, and Bills. These teams have held their opponents to relatively less yards per play and have also forced the highest percentage of turnovers per play. The good performances from the defences are shown by the relatively few points these teams have conceded. In this aspect, the 49ers and Bills standout from the pack. High number of forced turnovers also helps the offenses score.
The Eagles, 49ers, Chiefs, Bills, and Dolphins appear to have performed best in yards per play in respect to their opponents; they are averaging 0.7, 0.8, 1, 0.9, and 0.9 more yards per play than their opponents respectively. In terms of winning the turnover battle the Eagles, 49ers, Cowboys, Bengals, and Chargers have performed the best. In terms of number of penalties. Vikings, Chiefs, Bengals, and Chargers have performed the best with 88, 87, 81, and 81 penalties called against each team respectively.
The Strength of Schedule (SOS) is an important statistic to consider. As it provides an idea of the standard of teams each team has played to get into the playoffs. The toughest schedule is ranked one and the easiest schedule is ranked 32. Most of the teams in the playoffs had relatively easy schedules. None of the NFC teams had schedules ranking in the top ten. The Eagles, 49ers, and Seahawks had the easiest schedules, they were ranked 29, 32, and 28 respectively. In the AFC, the Chiefs, Jaguars and Chargers had easy schedules, they were ranked 27, 30 and 31 respectively. The remaining four AFC playoff teams had schedules ranked in the top ten. The Bills and Bengals standout, as their schedules were ranked 7 and 4 respectively and both managed at least 12 wins.
Super Bowl Odds
Super Bowl odds are a useful indicator of the teams that people believe are most likely to win the Super Bowl. They are willing to support their decisions by risking money. Below are the Super Bowl odds for all 14 teams.
Source: Odds Checker accessed 14/01/2023
It is very close between the top four teams of the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and Eagles. The Bengals and Cowboys are next. Then there is a jump to the Chargers followed by the Buccaneers, Vikings, Jaguars, and Ravens. Giants, Seahawks, and Dolphins are clear outsiders. These odds are consistent with my brief statistical analysis.
The Chiefs are slight favourites over the Bills. This is likely because of the bye week. If the Bills beat the Dolphins, I expect the Bills to become the favourites to win the Super Bowl. It is a little surprising the Buccaneers have better odds than the Vikings considering the Vikings have won far more games and have the easier first round game. I expect people still consider 7-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady (Buccaneers Quarterback) to be an important factor in giving the Buccaneers a chance of winning. It is worth considering that Tom is running out of opportunities to win a ring for his final finger. The Bengals odds could have been better as well considering that if they had beaten the Bills in the game that was cancelled, they would have obtained the second seed in the playoffs.
Entertainment, Storylines and Other Factors
The statistics indicate a team’s performance on the field. This is important for a team’s success in winning games in the regular season but making it to the Super Bowl and winning requires more than good play. It requires entertaining play. Football is a sport and it is entertainment. It needs to involve competition but this competition needs to be entertaining. Close games are entertaining, high scoring games are entertaining, dramatic endings are entertaining, dramatic comebacks are entertaining, intriguing matchups between star players are entertaining, team and player storylines are entertaining, underdogs overcoming adversity to win are entertaining, and controversies are entertaining.
This year’s playoffs have entertaining teams. Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills have frequently scored many points in games. For the second half of the season, the 49ers have become a high scoring team. In December, the Vikings made the greatest comeback in NFL history against the Colts. Many of these teams have star players on either side of the ball. The teams with the best offenses and defences made the playoffs.
There are several great storylines. Damar Hamlin of the Buffalo Bills collapsed on the football field and appeared to almost die in the Bills-Bengals game just one week before the end of the season. After the incident, the game was cancelled (hence, why the Bills and Bengals played one less game). This became the biggest headline in all of sports for about a week. All the NFL teams lit up their stadiums in Bills colours in support of Damar. Even Niagara Falls was lit up in the Bills’ colours. Billboards across the USA went up in support of Damar. A few days later, Damar showed good signs of recovery and even spoke to his teammates from the hospital using a video conference application (FaceTime). The next game the Bills returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown against the Patriots. What an exciting bounce back for the team!
Another interesting storyline but less dramatic comes from the NFC. The 49ers started the new season with their new quarterback Trey Lance. He was the 3rd draft pick that the 49ers traded 3 first round draft picks and a 3rd round pick to obtain (NFL). He was being touted as the future of the team. In the second game of the season. He became injured and the team stated his season was over. He was replaced by Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy led the 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2019 and to the NFC Championship in the 2021 season. He was a good quarterback with plenty of playoff experience but has been plagued with injuries. Fast-forward to Week 13, Jimmy Garoppolo is injured again and expected to be out for the season. The next player up was 3rd string quarterback Brock Purdy. He was the last player to be drafted in the 2022 NFL draft. Expectations were low. Many believed the season was over. Instead, Brock played like a superstar. He played better than both quarterbacks before him. So far, the 49ers have won every game with Brock as quarterback and their offense has gone from below average to one of the best in the league.
The NFL is heavily focused on making money. They want the games that will attract the most viewers. More viewers brings in more revenue and more opportunities for future streams of revenue. They also want to make money from gambling. Therefore, games and results cannot be too predictable. Early in the regular season many of the weakest teams were beating playoff favourites. This made it appear possible that any team could win and even make it to the Super Bowl. In the playoffs, there are less likely to be as many surprise wins. This is because a loss results in elimination. The NFL does not want a Super Bowl with two surprise teams. It is likely one or even two teams will reach the late stages before becoming eliminated. This will keep people excited and keep an element of unpredictability which is important to encourage a diverse range of bets.
My Predictions for the Wild Card Round
This will be the third time these teams have played each other. The Dolphins won the first game and the Bills the second. As the season has progressed, the Bills appear to have grown stronger and the Dolphins weaker. I predict the Bills win.
This will be the third time these teams have played each other. These teams have won one game each. The Bengals are in great form with a long winning streak. The Ravens have lost 3 of the last 4 games (one of them to the Bengals) and have not scored over 20 points for 6 games in a row. I predict the Bengals win
This will be the second time these teams have played each other. The Jaguars beat the Chargers convincingly in Week 3. However, that was a long time ago; circumstances have changed. Both teams are in good form. Jaguars have won 5 in a row and the Chargers 4 out of the last 5. This is a very even matchup. I believe the Jaguars have the stronger defence and stronger running attack. They also have homefield advantage. I predict the Jaguars win.
This will be the third time these teams have played each other. The 49ers won both the previous games. The 49ers appear to be the much stronger team and are in much better form. They have the homefield advantage. However, this game could be difficult as the Seahawks have performed well against the 49ers in previous years. It appears they normally matchup well with them. This season they do not appear good enough to win. I predict the 49ers win.
The Viking beat the Giants just a few weeks ago in a close game. Neither team seem to be in great form. The Vikings have done a little better but are prone to some very bad performances. The Vikings defence is also one of the worst in the league. I expect this to be a close game but I think the Vikings will win again.
This will be the second time these teams have played each other. The Buccaneers beat the Cowboys convincingly in Week 1. However, the Cowboys have had by far the better season. The Buccaneers enter the playoffs with a losing record. Their form has improved in recent weeks but it is not as good as most other playoff teams. The Cowboys lost the last game of the season but little was at stake in that game. Before that game they had won 6 of 7 games. The Buccaneers have Tom Brady and homefield advantage in this game. I still believe the Cowboys have the edge and will win.
My Predictions for the Divisional Round
Assuming all my predictions are correct (highly unlikely), the matches for the Divisional round should be as follows:
AFC
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Bills vs. Bengals
NFC
Eagles vs. Cowboys
49ers vs. Vikings
This will be the second time these teams have played each other. The Chiefs won the first encounter midway through the season. Since then, the Jaguars have greatly improved. They only lost one more game after the defeat to the Chiefs. The Chiefs have had a great season. They have the joint best regular season record in the NFL. They have the best offense in the league in terms of points scored and yards per game. They have an above average defence. The Chiefs are the stronger team and have homefield advantage. I predict the Chiefs will win but it might be closer than many would expect.
This will be the second time these two teams have met this season. However, the first time they played for one quarter before the game was cancelled. The Bengals were winning 7-3. This time the game will be played In Buffalo. Some might argue that this game should be played on neutral ground as the Bengals would be the second seed if they had won the cancelled game against the Bills. Homefield advantage will favour the Bills. The Bills, based on regular season performance, appear to have the better team on both offense and defence. However, the Bengals might be in better form. The Bengals have won 8 in a row. This includes playoff teams such as the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Ravens. The Bengals made it to the Super Bowl last season and appear to perform better under pressure. This is likely to be a very hard fought game. I believe the Bills will just win.
This would be the third time these teams have played each other. The Eagles won the first game and the Cowboys won the second game. Until the past few weeks, the Eagles were the most dominant team in the NFL. This changed when their quarterback, Jalen Hurts, was injured. During that stretch they lost to the Cowboys and the Saints. In the first encounter with the Eagles, the Cowboys were missing their quarterback, Dak Prescott, This time, both teams should have their star quarterbacks playing. Eagles have homefield advantage and a week off to rest. The Cowboys would be playing away again. This should be another close game between the two teams. It is likely to be determined by mistakes. The Cowboys defence have had a great season forcing mistakes. The Eagles recent loss of momentum and only just returned quarterback could be enough to cause them to lose. I am predicting the Cowboys to pull off the surprise win.
The 49ers and Vikings did not play in the regular season. They played in the preseason but that does not count for much. The two teams have the same regular season win-loss record but the 49ers, based on statistics, appear to be the better team. The 49ers are also in much better form; they won 10 regular season games in a row. The 49ers greatly improved offense is likely to be able to score a lot of point against the Vikings. The Vikings offense will have a much harder time. The Vikings need to hope that the pressure of the playoffs will greatly affect the 49ers rookie quarterback. I predict the 49ers will win.
My Predictions for the Conference Championship
Assuming all my predictions are correct (would be to a miracle), the matches for the Conference Championship should be as follows:
AFC
Chiefs vs. Bills
NFC
49ers vs. Cowboys
This would be the second time these teams have played each other. In the first game, the Bills narrowly beat the Chiefs (24-20) in Kansas. This game would be held on a neutral ground (not sure where). The two teams are of a very similar standard. The Chiefs have the better offense and the Bills the better defence. Both teams have star quarterbacks. Both teams would have only lost 3 games. Both teams are in great form with winning streaks leading up to the playoffs. The Bills defence is better at forcing turnovers but their offense also turns the ball over more than the Chiefs. Statistically, the teams are very closely matched. A key difference between the two teams is that the Bills have had a harder schedule and played in a better division. Despite the harder schedule, they still managed to win 13 games and amass 169 point differential. The Bills also have the better story. Winning the Super Bowl for Damar Hamlin. I predict the Bills will win.
This would be the first time these teams meet this season. The last time they played was in the playoffs last season. The 49ers won that game in Dallas. This time, they would be playing in San Francisco. This would be the third home playoff game in a row for the 49ers and their rookie quarterback. This would be the third away game in a row for the Cowboys. Both teams have won five Super Bowls, one less than the record held by the Patriots. Neither team has won a Super Bowl since the 90’s. The 49ers have come close in recent years. Based on statistics, the 49ers look like the better team. They have homefield advantage. They would be fresher from not travelling. The Cowboys best chance of winning would be to force turnovers. This is quite likely as the pressure on the rookie quarterback would be high. I expect the 49ers to have game planned to play more cautiously. This would reduce the chances for the Cowboys. I expect this to be a low scoring game. I predict the 49ers to win and return to the Super Bowl.
My Super Bowl Prediction (Bills vs. 49ers)
I predict the Buffalo Bills will face the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl. These two teams could be the best two teams in the league. They are both in great form. They both have great stories. They both have great players that will create exciting matchups either side of the ball. It is a game many fans would want to see. The Buffalo Bills would be chasing their first Super Bowl win after 4 consecutive Super Bowl defeats in the 1990s. The 49ers will be trying to tie the Patriots record 6 Super Bowl wins. Their previous two attempts fell short.
In terms of skill, the teams are very closely matched. These teams have the two best defences in the league. The 49ers have the better run defence. The Bills have the better pass defence. Their offenses are very strong. The 49ers have great playmakers. The Bills have a talented offense with a young versatile dual-threat quarterback.
The 49ers Brock Purdy story is interesting but the Bills Damar Hamlin story is stronger. The Bills will beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl. It is likely to be a comeback victory. I expect the Bills to score in the final minutes or even final seconds to take the lead and win. I expect this will be a thrilling Super Bowl to the end. As a 49ers fan, I will be disappointed to see them lose but I think they could get a very favourable script next season.
My Thoughts on Damar Hamlin
Source: Various sources from Twitter
Many athletes have been collapsing with heart conditions. The number of athletes with heart conditions has increased dramatically since the rollout of the Covid-19 jabs and booster jabs. Airtable has a long list of athletes from 2021 and 2022 who have had a sudden occurrence of some form of heart failure. Many of these athletes have died. These athletes have received very little media attention as it appears any relationship to the jabs is being covered up. Damar Hamlin’s story is very different. This athlete is receiving an excessive amount of attention from the media. This attention occurred immediately after the incident, it was almost like they were prepared. Attention has spread across the world. At this point, we do not know what caused Damar Hamlin to collapse. It may or may not be related to the Covid-19 jab. We do not know for sure if he was given a Covid-19 jab. He could have been given a placebo. The extent of attention that this incident is receiving leads me to believe that his collapse is not related to the jab.
Damar Hamlin wears the number 3. His number is being advertised all over the media. The hashtag prayfornumber3 is being used on social media. There are even t-shirts being sold with an emphasis on the number 3. According to the New York Post, 33 people died in a blizzard in the Buffalo (I think this number may have increased since that report). The number 33 is also being closely associated with Damar Hamlin. For example, it was reported that donations for Damar Hamlin’s fundraiser exceeded US$3.3million (Wopular). The Bills 96-yard kickoff return against the Patriots occurred three years and three months after their previous kickoff return (CBS Sports); articles are making a point to emphasize this number. The headline of the referenced article states the game was dedicated to number 3; it did not say dedicated to Damar Hamlin. These are some strange coincidences. It will be interesting to see where this story goes.
The 49ers have a player who wears number 3, his name is Ray-Ray McCloud the third. The 33 theme appears again. Ray-Ray McCloud formerly played for the Bills. Where he briefly wore the number 3. Before he wore number 3, he wore the number 14. If the Bills beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl, that would be the 49ers third Super Bowl defeat. It would be the Bills first win. Their record in the Super Bowl would become 1-4. That would be the same as Ray-Ray McCloud’s former number when he played for the Bills. Brock Purdy is the 49ers 3rd quarterback this season. He started the season as the team's 3rd string quarterback. If the Bills beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl, all of the above would be a very strange series of coincidences. This might be a too obvious path for the NFL to take. Hence, they might be forced to switch to an alternative plan.
Alternative Super Bowl
Just in case my theory about the 49ers is wrong or has become too obvious. My second choice for the Super Bowl would be the Bills against the Eagles (I am still keeping with the Bills). If the Eagles beat the Cowboys or any other team that gets through the Wild Card Round. I think they would have a good chance of beating the 49ers or any other team that might make it to the Championship game. This might also set the stage for Tom Brady to join the 49ers in the offseason for a final chance to win Super Bowl ring number eight (one for each finger) and possibly set-up the ultimate match between him and Bill Belichick (Patriots Head Coach). The 49ers losing would be blamed on their quarterback being too inexperienced. A year as a backup behind Tom Brady could be justified as a good learning experience. I am considering this to be a far less likely scenario but a plausible way forward. It is possible my main prediction looks a little too rigged.
More posts
If you want to read any of my other posts, you can click on the links below. These links will lead you to posts containing my collection of works. These 'Collection of Works' posts have been updated to contain links to the Hive versions of my posts.
Hive: Future of Social Media
Spectrumecons on the Hive blockchain
