Welcome back to the Hive FPL blog for GW24.
We've finally put January behind us for another year and in the footballing world it feels like the first weekend of February could go a long way to defining what comes next in the 24/25 EPL season.
The top 2 have tough matches with Liverpool travelling to a Bournemouth side who have been good all season but have taken their form to whole other level in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Arsenal face reigning champions Man City at a time when it feels like they're starting to find a bit more form.
And that's not all! We've got a double gameweek for Everton and Liverpool not to mention the final stages of the transfer window. It feels like the next 48 hours might go a long way to deciding the immediate futures of so many clubs and players.
Forest return to action after their mauling at the hands of Bournemouth last time out. That should quell fairly speculative suggestions that they might win the title this season but they are still very much on course for a European finish providing that they correct their form quickly.
Meanwhile it's groundhog day for Brighton as clubs look to poach their star players during a transfer window. Latest to attract significant interest from Saudi is Mitoma (MID) who is the Seagull's top points scorer in FPL 24/25. The Japanese winger has also hit double points in both his last away matches and appears in just over 5% of squads at present.
In fact, despite the disappointing 0-1 loss to Everton at home last week and, baring the 5-0 thrashing by Bournemouth, what looks like a strong Forest defence, don't bet against Brighton scoring in this one. They've netted a goal in every single one of their away matches in the EPL this season with Joao Pedro (FWD) adding 6 goal involvements in his last 8 games away from the Amex.
The ever popular Wood (FWD) comes up against an opponent that he's scored more goals against than any other club (9 in 24 matches) in his career although it should be noted that only 4 of those came in the Premier League.
Bournemouth come into this match of another great result at the Vitality and in fact are unbeaten in 11 matches in the Premier League at present. Only Arsenal (13) and today's opponents Liverpool (18) are enjoying longer streaks than the Cherries.
The bad news for Bournemouth is that this is not a fixture in which they've traditionally performed well in. They've won just once in their last 11 league meetings with Liverpool, losing the other 10 with 8 of those defeats coming by at least a 3 goal margin. In that same period, they've only 3 goals themselves past Liverpool.
That however was then and this is now. This should be a fascinating tactical battle between 2 relatively new Premier League managers who have already made a real impact on the English game.
You'd hope this will be a fairly open game despite the high stakes and if it is there's the potential for points from so many players on offer. The likes of Salah (MID), Semenyo (MID), Gakpo (FWD), Luiz Diaz (MID) and even Brooks (MID) have been been putting up very good attacking numbers of late while I wish that I'd followed my own advice from last week and selected Ouattara (MID) who made good on his own statistical form with a hattrick against Forest.
Liverpool had the luxury of resting many of their star names for their midweek fixture against PSV, most of whom didn't even travel with the squad to Holland.
It would appear that Everton have gotten the bounce that they required from replacing their manager with wins in their last 2 matches. If they can make it 3 in a row against another relegation rival then they might well open up a much more comfortable 10 point gap on the drop zone.
Leicester themselves got a priceless 3 points away at Spurs on Sunday and with Wolves facing a Midlands and the bottom 2 playing each other, they'll see this match as key to their own survial hopes.
Everton have the double gameweek with this fixture looking far more appealing than the match against Liverpool. 4 of the Toffees top 5 point scorers in FPL 24/25 are defenders or goalkeepers and I'd suggest that with 8 clean sheets this season, that is where managers will be looking.
The best odds you can currently get on Southampton to get relegated are 1/100. I'd suggest if you're looking to get a better return on your money that you walk into any high street bank and ask to open a current account that offers better than 1% interest.
Ipswich meanwhile have got it all to play for. A win in this game could very well see them finish the weekend outside the relegation zone but can they do it? There's no doubting that the Tractor boys have been competitive this season but with just 3 wins overall and only 7 points gained from matches at home so far, they need to start putting a run of victories together if they are going to avoid the drop.
Between them, these sides conceded 28 goals in January (14 each) which would suggest that if either wants to win, they'll need to score at least a couple of times.
Delap (FWD) is the only plausible options for an FPL pick on either side. His 84 points this season is 27 better off that any other player featuring in this match.
Newcastle bounced back from the home defeat to Bournemouth with a comfortable win against bottom side Southampton last weekend. February is going to be a big month for the Magpies who will host Arsenal in midweek, looking to book a place at Wembley in the League Cup while also hosting Birmingham in 4th round of the FA Cup next weekend. They also have Premier League matches against Forest, City and Liverpool to come.
There is therefore the temptation to think of this match against midtable Fulham as less of a priority but it'd be fair to say that if they do take their eye off the ball, the Cottagers could well punish them.
Isak (FWD) is the obvious pick having blanked just once his last 10 EPL matches while Gordon (MID) too has been similarly consistent over the same period. Neither, however, have the best record against today's opponents with Isak scoring just a single goal versus Fulham since arriving in the Premier League in 2022 with Gordon registering just 1 goal involvement in 5.
Fulham, however, have struggled to keep clean sheets of late with just 2 in their last 12 matches and those coming against lowly Leicester and Southampton suggesting that Newcastle's forwards might be on course to improve on those head to head stats.
A nice derby to round off Saturday's fixtures sees a struggling Wolves side host an inconsistent Aston Villa. Villa's form coming off the back of European fixtures has been of particular concern with no win in their 6 EPL games following a Champions League match.
It seems unlikely that Watkins (FWD) will complete a transfer to Arsenal over the weekend but you wonder whether the speculation will have unsettled him just at the point where he seemed to be returning to near his best. The striker has missed 19 'big chances' this season, more than any other player in the league.
Bailey (MID) made the latest in a long list of comebacks from knocks in the draw against West Ham last time out. He registered 21 goal involvements last season and if he can get back to fitness and form could be a good differential for the later part of the campaign.
If this one ends nil nil then I'll eat my laptop! These 2 sides have been involved in games totalling 82 and 83 goals respectively this season and there's little reason to suspect that the scoring will stop now.
Brentford, usually very strong at home, haven't actually won at the GTech in any competition since 7 December, although it would be fair to indicate that their run of fixtures during that time has been considerably tougher than during the first part of the season.
Wissa (FWD) and Mbeumo (MID) are the obvious picks for this one with Mbeumo having a particularly good record in London derbies (14 goals in 17 matches). The Bees also have a good looking run of fixtures over the forseeable future and are soley focuses on the league unlike Spurs who played midweek and have a semi-final against Liverpool a few days later.
With Solanke (FWD) out injured, Richarlison (FWD) has taken his opportunity by scoring in his last 2 appearances. The Brazilian went on a similar run this time last season when scoring in 10 matches straight but question marks remain over his fitness.
United come out of January looking a lot better than when they went into it and with a run of decent looking fixtures to come. With them still in 2 Cup competitions, the next 4 weeks will define whether they come out of this season with any credit.
Amad (MID) still looks like the best player on either side to have in your FPL squad and after a bit of chopping and changing early in his reign, the manager seems to be set on Amad playing in one of the number 10 roles which promises more points to come.
The danger for United is that they come up against a team who have a very good record at Old Trafford (3 wins in their last 5 visits), a very good away record in general of late (unbeaten in their last 7 away matches in the league) and that United haven't scored against in their last 4 encounters.
One way or another this is going to be a defining match for Arsenal. They have the luxury of knowing what Liverpool's result the day before was and if it was anything less than a win, it would give the Gunners a great opportunity to not only close the gap but beat the team that have denied them in the last couple of seasons.
In all honesty, it feels as though Arsenal still have a bit of an inferiority complex when it comes to playing City. They ground out a 1-0 win in the equivalent fixture last season but that was there first league victory against City since 2015. Surely this is an opportunity to establish true dominance against a team that has struggled all season?
Where City aren't weak is in conceeding goals from set pieces. The 2 they have have conceeded is a joint low for the Premier League this season alongside Brentford suggesting that Arsenal will need to be more effective from open play than they have been at times this season to get the 3 points they need.
Similarly City despite their troubles have shown a decent amount of fight with 17 points from losing positions this season and another comeback win recorded last week against Chelsea.
With Haaland (FWD) having scored 5 in his last 5 and Foden (MID) 6 in his last 4 EPL matches there is reason to believe that City could still finish the season strongly and while it'd be a miracle if they won the league they could still have a significant say in the final outcome.
A chance for Graham Potter to exact a bit of revenge on the club that sacked him a couple of seasons ago. Chelsea are not in a significantly better position than they were then with a string of soft goals conceeded having seen them drop down to 6th in the table. While it remains very tight in the race for the top 4, the teams either side of the Blues all appear to be on an upward trajectory so victory in this match is a must.
Chelsea also have problems upfront with Jackson (FWD) having failed to find the net in his last 7 Premier League matches. Palmer (MID) has also blanked for the last 2 GWs, he's only once before gone 3 game weeks without a goal involvement since joining Chelsea.
West Ham might be able to welcome back captain Bowen (MID) who remains the only plausible FPL pick from the Hammers squad.
And tonight's bonus ball is.... The Merseyside Derby
An extra match for Liverpool and Everton assets means that we'll almost certainly see everyone captaining if not triple captaining Salah (MID).
Outside that, you'd imagine Pickford (GK) who is the 2nd highest point scoring keeper in the game at present might also be popular while the likes of Gakpo (FWD) and TAA (DEF) are also reasonable picks.
The danger, however, is the significant gap in between this match and now. 12 days in total which will see Liverpool play 3 and Everton 2 matches in between this fixture not to mention the final stages of the transfer window meaning any acquisitions or chips played specifically for this double GW do come with added risk.