Doing some cycle analysis today and looking at the bigger trends. One thing I have been noticing is the correlation that Bitcoin has with last cycle's action. To me, Bitcoin is on track with last cycle, sometimes you just have to zoom out to see it.
Too many times in crypto, people focus too heavily on the lower term time frames, trying to catch profit swings, or looking for the next memecoin to bounce, that we forget to zoom out and see the bigger picture.
Today, I had to do just that to get a better perspective of where we are in the markets before I get to trading this week. There has been a ton of activity and 'sell the news' action after the Bitcoin ETF, which I actually sat out trading, but observed the price action. It actually went the way I thought it would. Pump before the news, dump after. We will see it rise in the longer term simply due to the fact that Wall Street is now a major player, but for now, we have to wait it out and see.
What I am seeing when I zoom out to the weekly time frame, is that Bitcoin's price action resembles last cycle in very eerie ways. They say history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes, well, this is certainly true for this cycle. If you look at the chart you will see the similarities. We are in that same after bottom pump that we had in 2018-2019 where the price rose up after the market bottom and then settled back down through the block reward halving event before we went to this recent cycle highs.
I am not seeing much different, and especially after the way the price has risen over the last few months without a significant pull back, me may be seeing that form at this time. I thought is that we see a potential decline back to 36K-38K because that is the closes major level of support where Bitcoin found some consolidation for a while. This creates a shelf for it to revisit. But it's not a bad thing if you want to stack some cheap sats. Just saying. We might be ranging for the next few months until the block rewards are cut in half, then through the summer into the fall, we may need to be watching for some fireworks! Until then, it's going to be some ranging so I am going to be looking to take some short range swings and accumulate for the bigger cycle push!
Just got to sit back, be patient, and trade logically! Just my dudely advice, haha.
This post was originally posted as an idea on my TradingView account. Come follow me there to get more posts like this, as well as check out version 1 of the Logical Trading Indicator!