Russia Gains a New Ally in EU, Could Slovak Elections Crack EU and ...

On the 30th of September, Slovaks will head to the polls in an early election which follows the collapse of its government in May. To briefly summarize for the last three years, Slovakian politics has been stuck in a state of permanent chaos. The anti-corruption movement Alano, which won the last election, has failed to provide stable leadership to replace the long ruling SMER party led by ex-Prime Minister Robert Fico who was forced to resign in 2018 after contract killers shot down a journalist investigating Fico's ties to the mafia. Despite having scandals of their own SMER has once again become the favourite to win the upcoming election, which means that Fico could well return to power. This has sparked some anxiety in Europe not just because of Fico's corruption ridden past but also because Fico has become an increasingly outspoken critic of Ukraine. So in this article we thought we'd take another look at Slovakia's election, the different elements vying for power, who's likely to win, and whether Slovakia is on course to becoming another outcast from the EU and NATO like Hungary is right now.

Let's get straight into it and take a look at the polls for this month's upcoming election, starting with the favourite SMER, which is currently looking at about 20% SMER, meaning direction in Slovak is a social democratic party at its core. Being a member of the Party of European Socialists on the EU level, unlike most of its European counterparts however, SMER is notoriously conservative on social issues and is highly critical of Ukraine. In just the last few months their leader Robert Fico has openly railed against military aid to Ukraine or sanctions on Russia and praised Gustaf who a hardline communist president who ruled Czechoslovakia in the 1970s and 80s. Just a week or so ago Fico told a party conference that the war in Ukraine didn't start yesterday or even a year ago. But in 2014 when Ukrainian Nazis started killing Russians in Donbass and unequivocally ruled out letting Ukraine into NATO. If you don't live in Slovakia SMER Electoral appeal might seem a bit odd given how most generally anti-Russian the rest of Europe is but the Slovak public are actually the most pro-Russian in the EU. According to polling from September last year, over half of the population wants Russia to win the war with only about 30% rooting for Ukraine and the remaining 20 saying they don't know. Even before the war in 2021, a different poll recorded 56% of Slovaks agreeing with the notion that NATO is provoking Russia. Unsurprisingly Slovaks therefore generally oppose sa nctions on Russia. According to the latest Eurobarometer polling 44% of Slovaks disagree with sanctions. The highest figure in the EU.

The largest force opposing SMER is progressive Slovakia President Zuzana Kapitan party of Origin, PS is a liberal pro-Western party which campaigned staunchly against the return of Fico due to his suspected ties to the Mafia. In the last election the party ran in an electoral coalition with another party but failed to cross the 7% threshold and didn't enter the parliament. This has helped them long term as it completely distances them from the chaos of the last three years. At the time of writing their support sits at about 16%. On third with 12% are Slovakia's other Social Democratic Party HLAS, or Voice led by Peter Pellegrini, the former prime minister for SMER Between 2018 and 2020, Pellegrini constantly ranks as the most trusted and least unpopular politician in the country with his catch all platform focused on cost of living issues. For many, however Pellegrini is still suspect, having been Fico's right hand man for years. Despite this it's not certain that the two parties form a coalition after elections and Pellegrini said he couldn't imagine being in the same cabinet as Fico. Next on 9% are Republica a pro-Russia and anti-EU party with neo-Nazi roots founded in 2021, Republica has a strong social media presence where it pushes anti Soros, anti LGBT and anti-vaccination content and polling suggests they're the second most popular party among 18 to 30 year olds with 15.6% support.

In fifth on 7% just above the threshold for coalitions are the incumbent ordinary people and independent personalities movement or Alano. This populist anticorruption movement beat SMER in the last election but their government has collapsed multiple times due to recurring spats between its leader Igor Matovic and his coalition partners. To bolster itself Alano formed an electoral coalition with smaller parties and has made bombastic promises, even pledging to give each citizen €500 for just going to vote. Alano's former coalition partners the Libertarian SAS Party and the conservative populist We are Family Party aren't faring much better themselves, both sitting just above the 5% threshold for individual parties. The We Are Family Party haven't been helped by the fact that their leader Speaker of the Parliament Boris Collor, publicly confessed to beating one of his 11 girlfriends mother of one of his 13 children. Adding to the chaos are the Christian democratic movement also polling at 6% an ultra conservative party that supports military aid to Ukraine but describes LGBT as a disaster destroying the country and the Slovak National Party, an older nationalist party that governed with SMER in the past.

So with this long list of parties out the way, what could the next government look like? Well, while the field is too chaotic to make predictions with any certainty a lot could depend on HLAS. With HLAS support Fico would probably be able to cobble together a right wing coalition, but HLAS could equally form a coalition with PS and SAS although this might depend on the support from the more conservative we are family or Christian Democrats. If Fico were to return, it could undermine the West unity towards and support for Ukraine. However it's worth saying that Fico is a ruthless pragmatist and there's a chance he could be using anti-Western rhetoric to rally his base. After all when he was actually prime minister Fico introduced the euro and has generally supported EU integration. Nonetheless from the EU's point of view Fico's return would be undeniably both risky and controversial.

Russia Gains a New Ally in EU, Could Slovak Elections Crack EU and NATO From Inside?

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