Why China's Invasion of Taiwan is Unlikely?

For the past few years, American and Western military officials have been anxiously talking up the prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Different officials give different dates but the consensus in Western foreign policy circles seems to be that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a question of when rather than if. Nonetheless there are reasons to be skeptical of this consensus, not least because, well, the West doesn't have a great track record when it comes to China predictions, so in this article, we're going to have a look at Why China Won't Invade Taiwan.

The first reason not to think that China will invade Taiwan is that, well, the CCP hasn't actually said anything along those lines. Hawkish Western commentators sometimes claim that Xi has put some sort of deadline for Taiwan's reunification, usually 2027, the 100th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army or sometimes 2049 the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. But while Xi and the CCP do emphasize these dates, they've never expressed them as a hard deadline for invasion or reunification of Taiwan. In fact, the CCP have only said that they want to quote, ensure the achievement of certain military targets by 2027, which could mean just about anything. The 2027 target is essentially an interim target on the way to the, quote, modernization of the China Army by 2035, a plan that the CCP set out in its 14th five year plan. When it comes to 2049 the CCP has said that it wants to have, quote, a world class military by mid-century, and Xi has said that he wants to achieve the, quote, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049. But, well, this doesn't necessarily mean reunification with Taiwan, and it's unlikely that Xi will be in power anyway, given that he'd be 96 in 2049.

It's also worth saying that while certain Chinese officials and its state media can sound quite bellicose on the issue of Taiwan, Xi himself sounds more measured. Xi has stressed that time and momentum are on Beijing's side and he actually sounded pretty dovish on Taiwan in his New Year speech when he mostly stuck to boilerplate statements about the One China principle and expressed hope that quote, Our compatriots on both sides of the strait will work together with a unity of purpose to jointly foster lasting prosperity of the Chinese nation. Anyway, you get the idea, contrary to what you might hear from the more hawkish corners of Western media, neither Xi nor the CCP have ever set a deadline for invasion, so an invasion isn't a foregone conclusion. The second reason China isn't going to invade Taiwan is economic. As I've detailed in previous article, the Chinese economy is always struggling. The property market is looking wobbly. Local governments are defaulting on their massive debts and youth unemployment is reaching unprecedented highs.

Invading Taiwan would incur enormous economic fallout, which the Chinese economy clearly isn't prepared for. Obviously, there would be no more trade with Taiwan, which currently exports something like $200 billion worth of goods to China every year, including strategically critical semiconductors and other high end tech components. Pro Taiwan countries would also impose massive sanctions on China and probably stop trading with China altogether in the way they have with Russia. But even friendly or non-aligned countries would find it difficult to trade with China because China relies heavily on seaborne trade, especially via the South China Sea. An estimated 30% of the world's trade passes through the South China Sea and with the exception of trade with South Korea and Japan, which would stop trading with China anyway, almost all of China's seaborne trade has to pass near Taiwan or American bases in Okinawa. In the event of an invasion, the cost of insuring ships operating in the region would skyrocket, bringing China's economy to a screeching halt.

This would be particularly bad news for China because China doesn't really have a domestic supply of oil or gas, which is why it needs to import lots of it. Today, China is the world's biggest oil and gas importer and the vast majority comes from the Middle East via the Malacca Straits. If ships stopped sailing through the South China Sea or America decides to impose a blockade along the Malacca Strait, this would cut China off from its energy, which would cripple China's industrial economy. So you get the idea an invasion of Taiwan would do enormous damage to China's economy, which is already in a bit of a crisis. The third reason to think an invasion is unlikely is that it would be both exceptionally difficult and risky. While it's only 150km from the mainland, Taiwan is a mountainous island with a limited number of landing spots, most of which are in the north of the country near Taipei. Even if they were able to land successfully, the PLA would then be faced with a mountainous and narrow terrain, which is perfect for Taiwan's defending forces.

Taiwan's varying geography, which includes wetlands, mountains and densely populated areas, means a total occupation would require a huge range of different combat skills and a massive logistics operation to supply PLA forces. This also means that Taiwan would be able to see China's invasion coming from a mile off because it's such a massive operation. Invading Taiwan would require deploying a significant number of ships and aircraft to the coast around Taiwan, as well as an enormous troop mobilization. Analysts estimate that the CCP would probably have to mobilize something like 2 million men to give the invasion the best chance of succeeding, who would then have to gradually be deployed around Taiwan. Much like with Putin's invasion of Ukraine, this troop buildup would be literally visible from space, giving Taiwan the time and impetus to sort out its defending forces.

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- IndoPac_Info

On top of that, Taiwan has two monsoon seasons, and the treacherous weather leaves just two brief windows of attack one in April and May and another in October, which means Taiwan would probably be able to predict the date of the invasion. So you get the idea. An invasion of Taiwan would be difficult for any military, let alone an untested one like the PLA. And if the war in Ukraine has taught us anything, it's that there's no such thing as a guaranteed outcome in modern warfare.

Why China's Invasion of Taiwan is Unlikely?

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