The Latin American Report # 558

There are dynamics in democratic matters that, while legal, may not be considered sound in political battles. There are other issues with strong consensus that are generally not addressed or modified. The controversial Salvadoran president engaged in both practices late Thursday when a sympathetic Congress amended the constitution to approve indefinite reelection, a clear nod to the possibility of perpetuating his power. First, it is not well seen to exploit a massive temporary political muscle, but Bukele is doing so. On the other hand, it is widely considered healthy for democracy that a president not stay in power for more than two terms, usually consecutive.

After Bukele was reelected in contradiction with the existing constitution, now the Congress led by his party has blessed this move long-distance in the Magna Carta. Additionally, the second-round electoral runoff was eliminated in favor of a simple majority system. "Tonight’s situation is so grave that you don’t realize what indefinite reelection brings: it brings power accumulation and weakens democracy (...) corruption and patronage increase because nepotism rises, and democracy and political participation are stifled," said an opposition lawmaker. The reform was introduced and adopted unexpectedly.

Brazil

Officials affirm that they will fight the imposition of 50% tariffs on a significant portion of their exports to the United States, which they deem unfair. Unlike most cases, regarding Brazil, the MAGA administration cannot sustain the argument of a trade imbalance and has instead been very direct in linking the tariffs to a political issue (the trial against Jair Bolsonaro underway in the Supreme Court, overseen by the controversial judge Alexandre de Moraes). Although products like orange juice—which we discussed here—and those related to the energy sector, such as oil, were protected due to higher economic and practical interests, others like coffee, corn, and meat are now taxed with a 50% tariff upon arrival at U.S. ports, posing a serious problem for Latin America's largest economy.

Lula da Silva's Finance Minister and former presidential candidate Fernando Haddad stated they are "in a more favorable starting point than imagined, but far from the finish line," noting that, in total, around 700 products, including those already mentioned, were taxed at only 10%—the new tariffs would affect roughly 36% of exports.

Haddad plans to sit at the negotiating table with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent very soon, as Brazil still sees "much injustice" and the need for "corrections" to the implemented plan. At the same time, Brasilia intends to take its case to international organizations with jurisdiction over the matter, though it is unlikely to yield results given the current Oval Office occupant's particular disdain for such bodies. "The negotiation doesn’t end today; it begins today," said Vice President Geraldo Alckmin on Brazilian TV. As seen in the past month, the tariff conflict appears to have boosted Lula's approval ratings as the best strategy, with slightly over half of Brazilians now supporting him, according to estimates.