Warning: You may feel some things very surrealistic, improbable or absurd but all is true. Remember, Cuba is under the control of a totalitarian state with the only objective of keeping the power at any cost. This report will show you the real situation in Cuba, that one that the state propaganda tries to deny.
Image draw by me
Politic
As always the Cuban government tries to avoid sharing data about public money management. The designated president by the Cuban Communist Party (CCP), Miguel Diaz Canel AKA El SINGAO, passed on average this year one day a week outside Cuba traveling with his wife and one of his sons. Apparently, these travels are to stretch diplomatics relationships and sign economic and political treaties, but there is no public evidence of the signed documents, the benefits that will bring, and the expenses of the travels to analyze if indeed these world tours are justified. Until now is just highlights for the news.
The political curse keeps its traditional track, criticizes the US government for anything (things that do and others are product of the ideological confrontation laboratories of the CCP), and makes silence or justify the same actions of abuses of China and/or Russia. One example is a report from the state digital newspaper Cubadebate where they attack a private business for decorating an American hamburger with the US flag. In the same article, the author criticizes the prices of private Cuban businesses complaining that are high in excess. Everyone can say that the journalist doesn’t know much about the economy, but when is silent about the government or political allies shops that have higher costs a sell exclusively in US dollars you understand that is a political orientation and not ignorance.
Other characteristics that remain the same is the prosecution of every individual or group that professes a different political idea or just makes right and legal claims about economic, social or political rights.
Economy
The main mantra of the totalitarian Cuban government for almost all problems of the country's economy is the US embargo. However, this has no supporting data. Yes, the embargo put some limitations on Cuba's trade, but the main problems are because the island government doesn’t have money to pay for products. With the debt default history of the nation, no country (even allies such as China or Russia) wants to give credits demanding cash or in advance payments.
This is reflected in the demand of a truck Russian factory to Cuban entities for millionaire debt.
I have to clarify that Russia is giving some economic benefits to the Cuban government as debt restructuration, debt forgiveness, and new development loans. In exchange are receiving investment tax breaks and influence in the economic policy of the country.
Furthermore, the investment in hotel construction keeps growing, this will not be a problem if the profits from tourism are high enough to justify it. However, the percentage of hotel occupancy does not exceed 30% and is not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels in less than 3 years minimum. Already are hotels closed by low occupancy and that remain emptied all year, the investment is not justified. Money laundering? Who knows. The reality is that money that can be used to stimulate the agricultural sector and increase food production is being wasted. This helps to increase the food price and inflation.
Screenshot from onei.gob.cu report
Inflation reached an increase of 40% compared with last year, which despite the value of the USD dollar in the black (free) market decreased in the last week from 250 pesos to 233. A step back that portends a future of fast climbing, exactly how it happened in October 2022 when it went from 200 to 165 and then initiated a constant increase to 250 on August 15.
Screenshot from eltoque.com
A positive thing is that since June the electrical shutdowns have reduced his frequency by more than 90%.
Weeks ago the Cuban Central Bank promoted a forced bancarization to reduce the use of cash. The consequences don’t wait too long: private businesses stopped accepting digital payments, the cash shortage got worse and now some people sell 1 CUP (Cuban peso) in cash for 1.1 CUP in digital transfer.
The main problem of the bancarization process is that the banks don’t sell US dollars to private businesses so they need to buy it in the free market and that transaction happens with cash. If the state force merchants to accept transfers and limit the cash extractions that they can do, then the business will:
- Close
- Sell in USD and not CUP
- Keep a double bookkeeping
None of these is good.
Social
Lack of medicines, high cost of food, and political repression. This is the constant in Cuba, but let’s go with data.
6.6% of newborns in Cuba have low weight and around around the 70% of pregnant women have anemia due the nutritional and prenatal tablets and prenatal tablets deficiency. This level up the infant mortality rate to 7.5 per thousand live births, still is an acceptable rate but we have to notice that almost doubled the numbers from 4 deaths per thousand live births in 2018. Being the septicemia the bigger cause of the death. This is just one of the points that probe the upsurge of the sanitarian crisis that lives the nation, where in pharmacies you can’t access something so basic as an Ibuprofen or Aspirin.
In Cuba, due to food scarcity, the government gives a small amount of subsidized basic food products (that are not even enough for a week). However, since last year it has not even been capable of covering this micro basic basket, receiving donations from countries like Russia, China or Vietnam to “solve” this situation. Some people are still waiting for the Food quota for the month of April, spoiler alert: they will not receive it.
The offer of food is covered by private producers or merchants, but at high prices that most people cannot afford. Many retired workers are forced to work again or reduce their consumption to one meal a day due to their low incomes.
The Cuba minimum pension is around 6.6 USD per month, the minimum wage is 9 USD a month and the average salary is only the double minimum.
So far this year, the independent Cuban organization “Alas Tensas” has detected 55 femicides, although the government does not recognize the term. Most of these women filed police complaints against their aggressors that were ignored or that were not given adequate follow-up or priority. This is not a surprise, Cuban police only act fast and efficiently when is a political issue against the state.
Final notes
This is the first The Republic of Cuba report, for that I extended it a little to give you more context, but the next reports will be more focused on the weekly or daily news about the three main subjects: economy, politics and social themes.
For more general and/or specific information you can read the following posts:
- @yecier/cuba-subyugada-panorama-general
- @yecier/cuba-economy-and-inflation
- @yecier/cuba-manual-for-a-economical-disaster
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