I had to watch it twice to be sure I understood it. Mr. Cowen's charting is deep, and wide, and as he explains, there are several mathematical calculations that suggest Bitcoin’s highest price will be between $150K-$200K. Mr. Cowen quietly points up a terminal price to look for on Bitcoin: $188K. Again, with Bitcoin rolling around in the 100K range at the moment, that tells us it is just past halfway home! That also tells us that the previous months of consolidation can be thought of as "halftime" ... Bitcoin was just taking a little rest there!
Some altcoins tend to take 4-6 weeks past Bitcoin’s mid-cycle and final tops to top out … so that would put us, at the latest, into December 2025 for this run in total if the longest indicators play out -- I learned from a channel called No BS Crypto how to look at the timing of Bitcoin's upcycles, and they most often top out 18 months from the halving. For this bull run, given that the halving was April 20, that would give us late October into very early November for the top.
But the other thing to note: Bitcoin’s movements, not the month of the year, tell us where the run is likely to end. If in June, Bitcoin somehow gets up to $150K, that will suggest the cycle top may come as early as August, because the terminal price is only about $40K away. That also tells us that no matter what people are saying in December 2025, if we see that Bitcoin has already gone up to $190K or so and is “struggling” to go higher after having fallen back a little, this will not be the time to “buy the dip.” We have means to know better, unless ...
There is the institutional buying to consider ... Mr. Cowen' calculations do come from cycles before this in which institutions were not as much involved. But that's why you need to read this post from @shortsegments and pick up four more key indicators that the bull run is ending so you can make your exit plans with SIX INDICATORS to look at. Bitcoin may well exceed its terminal price just because of institutional buying pressure -- it may even break its cycle math somewhat -- but there are other detailed indicators to look at that will give more sure warnings when it is time to go.
My personal opinion is that the cycle math will more or less hold up, simply it is more or less holding up, because the M2 indicator you'll learn about in @shortsegments's post will be doing what it is doing and affecting even institutional buying, and there are macro elements that may take all markets down in 2026, right on time. Therefore to me, Bitcoin's projected terminal price is an important indicator, especially as we get closer to October and November. Even if Bitcoin's run makes it into 2026, and to $200K or above, those of us who have been in the markets quite a long time may still not want to sell our Bitcoin but will long since have found good exit points for our altcoins.
Again, please see this post for two key altcoin indicators, because those altcoin indicators will share what to do no matter how high Bitcoin gets. If Bitcoin goes to some shocking price -- I have seen predictions of $700K this cycle -- and if retail runs to altcoins, they STILL have pattern indicators of their own regarding Bitcoin dominance and how they move in the market that will be of help knowing when to let them go.