Dear Hivers,
Humans have always fascinated me, they are easily influenced (for the better or worse) and most of them are not capable to develop their own critical thinking and will comply with the norm/herd.
What really amazed me is in my job I need to see and analyse events before the rest of my peers, people.
What shocked me is back in the end of January, I wrote to my colleagues and bosses:
"We do not know if this pandemic will be catastrophic but the way we and other market participants deny it is even happening is making me speechless."
Well, my entire company, brokers thought it was a non-event. "Look at SRAS, it does not last, V-shaped recovery... blablabla". Even with facts showing it was definitely not like SRAS in terms of R0 and impact.
Well we all know what happened next to financial & crypto markets
This was the 1st TIME, a pandemic pressured the CCCP in China to:
- Close its internal air traffic (most of its international partners followed just a few days later)
- Put an entire region of more than 70-120mn inhabitants in full lockdowns
- Give a multi billion funding to WHO just a few days before this pandemic appeared in Western newspaper
- Destroying evidence, massively using propaganda and making many whistle-blowers disappear
My question was simple:
Knowing the CCCP, would you think they would have taken these measure for a SRAS like type of virus and "only" 3000 deaths?
I guess I do not need to reply to this statement.
What's funny is that European countries reacted late (even seeing the Italian situation) and when they reacted, they became in full lock-down mode. Nothing was measured/rational.
Basically it went from complete denial to extreme fear.
And now? Well at least where I live, it seems Covid19 disappeared totally and this entire situation is OVER since we lifted lock downs measures.
Well, Guess what? Looking at the datas, COVID19 is still in its prime-time and is in for a come-back in Europe !
Difference between media coverage and reality
Did I write this post just to ramble about the past? Not really...
Let's look at the daily datas from the best website out there (every data included is sourced and reliable).
Here is the source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Daily Cases have never been higher than yesterday !
This is the most shocking thing for a European/American. It feels like COVID19 is an old story, but it has been devastating LATAM for the past weeks and is now ramping up in Middle-East and Asia (India, Bangladesh Pakistan...)
USA
This is THE MOST IMPORTANT country to know if stocks and/or cryptocurrencies will crash.
As you can see, the number of new daily cases is slowly increasing again since the lock-downs have been lifted in most states.
As the CDC said: "We will not re-confine the population if a 2nd wave happens".
- This is not the "2nd wave", this is the continuation of the 1st one.
- . You should read the CDC comment as: "Cases are going to improve dramatically and we cannot do anything".
What is the most worrisome is that states (as California) which did everything as well as they could are seeing a strong increase in daily cases.
California
Florida
Latin America
Brazil
Mexico
Asia
India
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia
To conclude, even without datas we learned that China put a number of neighborhood in Bejing in quarantine over the weekend as the pandemic seems to be gaining steam in the capital
So, COVID19 is back and?
Well, I believe what is very interesting is the difference in narrative/view today compared to 1 month ago.
It seems as if Covid19 is behind us in Europe/North America, but when you look at datas, it definitely isn't.
It took a month and a half for investors to realize it back in March. I believe this will be faster this time 😉.
Stocks Markets are back or closer to neutrality in the US after its short COVID19 crisis and most actors are thinking 2020 will be a bad year but we will get a recovery and 2021-2022 will be fine.
Well... If, as the data suggests; COVID19 has not and will not be stopped by lock downs it means we will have to live with it for the months/years to come.
This would imply that many parts of our economies (tourism, entertainment industry, airlines/aeronautic,restaurants/clubs...) will have to reinvent themselves and this "new world" will have extra costs.
**People might save massively anticipating that the current short term lay-offs may become permanent ones. Also, social unrest should increase as people will have issues to make both-ends meet.
In the short term, I believe we will have another big stocks and cryptocurrencies crash.
Let's remember that the March BTC Crash was correlated with the one happening in the financial markets
This is why I plan to have some cash for Monday's Stock Market open.
... And of course I will have some cash for my beloved cryptocurrencies as well 🙂.
I would love to hear your thoughts !
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