For me the most obvious short will be on a price level that will cross several trading schools to confirm the rejection via:
- The key support level (in orange) at 20.5K, visible on the King Fisher liquidation map.
- The bottom of the Ichimuku cloud.
- The top of the Bollinger Bands.
- The bearish divergence on the RSI, MACD and OBV
- Red trend line (of the downtrend channel) as resistance.
- The MA 62 in blue as resistance.
- A pattern of candles that shows selling pressure, such as the Long wick Candle or Shrinking Candles, or a red engulfing candle.
It's a scenario like any other, what I know the probabilities for the decline to continue are higher than an uptrend resumption, so I would take a short trade in trend following after doing the pros and cons !
We can go down directly to look for the bottom of 17.6K until 14.5K, or just look for stops at the bottom of 17.6K and bounce directly, finally a lot of scenarios to plan to put emotions aside and be ready for all!
If we go directly to the south, I would wait for the pull back and then the confirmation of the rejection, otherwise it's possible that it's just a fake break out below 17.6K to first trap the longs and then bounce directly to trap the shorts who wanted to anticipate the break out, everything will depend on the price action on each key level!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5zOPCcJc/
Another little boost on ETH to $1350 to clear the train of shorts and at the same time to look for 20K on BTC with the big spike that has been waiting for its turn for a few days.
Posted this morning on my Telegram Channel: https://t.me/tradingwithbinance/439
I see an obvious Long in the short term on BTC and ETH, except that I imposed myself a rule which is to trade in the right direction of the trend and avoid trading all the time and all directions (Long and Short).
The market will always have its last word, and even with the best analysis when trying to take a high quality trade, finally we have probabilities of losses.
As I said yesterday, my next short trade I would wait for the price action either on the next resistance around 20K or if we break directly below 17.6K I would wait for the pull back to confirm that it is not a false break out!!!
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