It's been a minute since I did an analytical post, and since there's been a ton of discussion about what packs to buy, I wanted to share my analysis so it can hopefully help those of you who are still planning your buys over the next couple of days.
WARNING: Lots of numbers in this post! TLDR at the top for those who just want the conclusions.
Let's dive in. I'll start with the summary, and follow with the deep dive and raw data.
Executive Summary
Standard packs are best for:
- Maximizing TOTAL (any foil) number of sets.
- Getting the most balance of maxed cards across rarities.
If you want the most maxed cards, irrespective of foil, get Standard packs
Alchemy packs are best for:
- Maximizing Collection Power (important for airdrops).
- Maximizing TOTAL (any foil) number of maxed Gold Foil cards, as well as maximizing maxed Common, Rare, and Epic Gold Foil cards.
- Maximizing TOTAL (any foil) number of maxed Black Foil cards.
- Maximizing VALUE of dropped cards (look at "value" assumptions in the deep dive).
If you want the most total GF/BF cards, irrespective of foil, and the most CP for airdrops, get Alchemy packs
Legendary packs are best for:
- Maximizing TOTAL (any foil) number of Legendary cards.
- Maximizing number of Legendary Regular Foil, Gold Foil, and Black Foil.
If you're chasing BFLs, or just want as many maxed Legendaries as possible, get Legendary packs
Other takeaways
- Variance INCREASES the smaller your sample size. This means that the variance on all numbers below is HIGHER for Alchemy than Standard, and even higher for Legendary packs. In other words, because for the same amount of $$$ you open fewer of the more expensive pack types, you are more susceptible to RNG, which can mean BETTER or WORSE yields than the expected values shown below. Variance is also higher the fewer packs you buy (so...buy more to reduce your variance and let the law of large numbers be on your side!).
- Personally I bought MOSTLY Alchemy packs because (a) I want to maximize my total number of GFs and BFs and (b) I want to maximize my CP (for airdrops). HOWEVER, I've also bought Legendary packs to compensate for the relative lack of Legendary drops in the Alchemy pack option.
Deep Dive & Raw Data
(Apologies in advance for the very raw display of the data - I didn't want to waste time formatting it!)
Base data
First, a couple of data points to get everyone on the same page.
Rarity & Foil drop rates by pack are below. Here I assumed an AVERAGE drop rate inclusive of the GUARANTEES. The drop rates will actually be slightly HIGHER, but that's a more complex analysis, and a reasonable approximation, particularly for LARGE pack numbers. With that in mind, here are the expected average drop rates.
Rarity Drop Rates by Pack Type
Foil Drop Rates by Pack Type
# of CC required to max
# of Cards in Set by Rarity, and Corresponding Total CC
Pack # Used for Analysis
To do this analysis, I assumed an equivalent amount of $$$ spent on each pack type. Since my initial purchase was for $48,000 of packs (4k Alchemy packs in my case), this analysis uses that as the number. But it DOESN'T MATTER what your own $$$ spent is - what matters is the RELATIVE end values when you compare pack types.
So, in my case, here's the number of packs I used for the analysis: 12k Standard Packs vs. 4k Alchemy Packs vs 2k Legendary Packs.
Comparison 1: # of CC, Maxed Cards, and Sets
For my first comparison, I look at the # of CC, Maxed Cards, and Sets for each purchase option.
First, the raw data, then the conclusions.
Number of CC and Maxed Cards, by Rarity, by Pack Option
Number of Maxed Cards and Total # of Sets by Rarity, by Pack Option
Conclusions:
- Standard packs offer the most EVEN distribution of maxed sets across rarity (irrespective of Foil).
- Alchemy packs offer the highest number of Gold Foil and Black Foil cards for Common, Rare, and Epic (by far), but fewer GF/BF Legendaries than Legendary packs.
- When it comes to MAXED cards (not total CC), and looking across ALL rarities, Alchemy packs give ~2x more GFs and ~3.3x more BFs than Standard packs, and ~5.5x more GFs and ~4x more BFs than Legendary packs (for the same $ spent).
- Legendary packs offer the highest number of Legendary cards (all foils) by far (2.3x more sets than Standard packs, and 5x more than Alchemy packs).
- Legendary packs yield ~3.3x more BFLs than Alchemy packs for the same $$$ spent (!).
- Alchemy packs suffer the most on Legendary cards, but will give the highest number of full Common sets.
- Rare cards will be the hardest to max! This is because there is a total of 29 Rare cards in the set.
Comparison 2: Collection Power
Next, we look at Collection Power (CP), which is essential for Airdrops via Conflicts.
CP by Pack type, by Rarity, and Total CP Yield
Conclusions:
- Alchemy packs will give, by far, the most expected CP (~1.8x more than Standard and ~1.6x more than Legendary packs)
- Legendary packs yield slightly more expected CP than Standard packs (~1.1x), BUT they are susceptible to RNG due to being smaller in numbers (bad yields = bad CP; good yields = good CP!)
3. Comparison #3: Value
This one's the toughest, because you need to make assumptions on the value difference between rarities and between foils. There's no single constant that will be accurate at any given time, and of course predicting this is pretty much a fool's errand. However, I still wanted to do something here, so I took my own assumptions based on looking at Rebellion data and also adjusted the numbers slightly after seeing the cards in the set (specifically, I increased my assumed value of Legendary cards).
First, here are my assumptions on value multipliers. The easiest way to read this is: A Legendary Black Foil card will be worth 25x the average Maxed Common RF. So for example, if a Common RF maxed is $50, a BFL will be ~$1250. Think that's low? I actually think it's reasonable. But hey, if you want to challenge these assumptions, feel free to add more value to BFLs in your analysis! This is my analysis! :D
Note that the value numbers in the spreadsheet are based on an INDEX. It's not a $ amount. It simply states that the base is 1 (for Common RF maxed), and works from there.
Value Multiplier Assumptions
Now looking at value comparisons by pack option.
Value Comparison
You can see it's actually fairly close (the bottom left line - 1305 for Standard, 1345 for Alchemy, and 1225 for Legendary).
Conclusions:
- The highest expected value, based on my assumptions, is for Alchemy packs, BUT it's fairly close.
- If you increase the value multiplier for GFL and BFL (e.g. 2x my values), then the value of the Legendary packs is the highest
Final thoughts
Some things are unquestionable - e.g. the expected value of CP will be highest with Alchemy packs, the total number of sets will be highest with Standard, and the total number of Legendary cards will be highest with Legendary packs. However remember there's a lot of RNG for chase cards, including all Black Foils and of course Arcane cards, so there's lots of variance here that isn't quite taken into account. And of course the VALUE metric is highly subjective, so ultimately some tweaks in the assumptions yields different conclusions.
Ultimately I think you can't go wrong with any pack selection!
I really hope you guys find this useful, and that it'll help some of you decide what packs to buy. And if it just confused you further, I apologize - keep calm and carry on!
As usual, all images in this post were made using AI, this time using ChatGPT using official Splinterlands card images as reference.