The Main Objective
The reality when it comes down to Splinterlands is that not that many players are actually in profit since the value of cards is both inflated away by printing more of them at an absurd rate while the utility after 2 years is almost totally stripped away. The ones that are actually in profit are those who have been in it for a long time and bought smart while taking some profit when the market peaked and the devs who keep getting their paycheck each month.
The good thing is that now things are in a depressed state which potentially allows a good entry unless Splinterlands would go totally bankrupt with nobody to take it over which I see as highly unlikely. The main objective for new players should be to get the upside potential while limiting the downside risk. So what you don't want to do is come in and buy packs and all the meta cards to be competitive at higher level as that is a near sure way to get totally crushed!
The 10$ Spellbook Buy
You need to buy the 10$ Spellbook which will give you a Hive Account which is needed to play the game and own assets while it also allows you to earn from Blogging (See Below). this also includes 3$ worth of Credits so basically you start out with a 7$ loss which you need to earn back as quickly as possible.
What Cards to Buy ?
When it comes down to which cards you want to buy, the only viable ones are those who are in Modern since it's impossible to earn more than the Wild Entry Tax for new players unless they make a serious investment.
One of the failsafe mechanics in Splinterlands is that Cards have a DEC Burn value in case the market would get so bad that card prices get lower than the burn value which would result in cards being burned and assets getting scarcer to possibly push the price back up. Right now the game is in a state where this actually is the case since there has been a massive overprinting while the demand for the cards isn't there. So it's possible to buy cards close or even below the DEC Burn value counting at Peg value.
The entire economy depends on DEC being at peg so it's safe to say that there will be a point in time when 1000 DEC is worth 1$ again on the open market. So what I would do is to only buy cards that are very close to or below the DEC Burn Value. This will leave you with an option to get out without taking a loss while owning assets that have an upside price potential and a limited downside risk.
These are mainly cards froù the overprinted Chaos Legion Set & Reward Cards from that period.
| Card Rarity | DEC Burn Value | $ Value at Peg |
|---|---|---|
| Common Cards | 5 DEC | 0.005$ |
| Rare Cards | 20 DEC | 0.020$ |
| Epic Cards | 100 DEC | 0.100$ |
| Legendary Cards | 500 DEC | 0.500$ |
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| Card Rarity | DEC Burn Value | $ Value at Peg |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Common Cards | 125 DEC | 0.125$ |
| Gold Rare Cards | 500 DEC | 0.500$ |
| Gold Epic Cards | 2500 DEC | 2.500$ |
| Gold Legendary Cards | 12500DEC | 12.5$ |
So basically any card that is from Wild League and is below or close to these values are cards you can almost buy blindly without expecting to lose money. Just as a reference, buying Rebellion packs which most of the time will include just 4 commons and 1 rare combined worth 0.04$ in burn value at peg would cost you 3000 DEC (3$ at peg). Off course there is a chance to get something better and these cards right now can be sold for more but still, downside risk on them is extreme and also very likely to happen.
Some examples of cheapest priced cards right now
Many of these cards are also actually useful in the game. You however also need some Summoners which are priced above the burn value since every player needs those
It also is important to know that the Chaos Legion Set is next in line to be dumped into Wild Mode which I would say is at least half a year away as there simply is no room for another core set at the moment. Once that happens they become nearly useless unless you have a big collection at max level which allows you to play wild Profitable or if somehow the devs would come to their senses and add ways to support older cards. The fact remains that these cards are protected by the DEC burn value.
The Need For Staked SPS
In order to increase your rewards from won Ranked Games, you will either need to buy and stake some SPS or rent it. At the current price, just 20$ already gives you 2500 SPS which gives a solid multiplier in Silver League.
SPS has also been beaten down a lot to the point where it has just a 24 Million Fully Diluted Market Cap while it has dynamics to be deflationary over time. The game has had a loyal player base with many whales who eat up everything that is put for sale to a certain extent so it's safe to say enough DEC will get burned for the Flywheel where SPS needs to be burned to create DEC will kick in at some point pushing the price up.
There are also SPS staking rewards that you will earn passively and each ranked win will earn you some SPS.
Hive Blogging Earnings From Splinterlands
If you are like me and enjoy writing, this is actually the main reason to be and stay in the Splinterlands ecosystem.
You should easily be able to earn back the 7$ which was lost on the Spellbook this way and possibly get a source of income that you can use to grow your Splinterlands account more over time.
Try To Join A Guild!
Being part of a guild allows you to earn a bit more from ranked battles and it possibly also will allow you to enter the Brawls which are quite fun and can give good earnings.
Splinterlands Gameplay Experience
Doing things in this way which limits the downside risk however will come at the cost of gameplay enjoyment but at least your investment won't get crushed and you will actually earn something. You won't have all the meta cards and at some point sooner that later you will hit the pay2win wall where you are simply up against higher level cards. Splinterlands also forces you to play 1 hour each day if you want to get most out of the rewards which won't be that high.
Conclusion
I believe it's currently possible to come into Splinterlands with a limited ~100$ investment and actually make some profit while keeping your investment value. However, you will need to learn many of the dynamics of how everything works and put quite some time into it likely with a gameplay that isn't going to be all too enjoyable. This is why I don't recommend Splinterlands to anyone right now, but if I would have to come in the game right now as a new player, this is how I would do it!
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