Really appreciate the reception to my last post. This blog has now changed to The Watch.
This blog will share the most valuable weekly Splinterlands news.
I will also track and share the top whale movements.
As always, everything 100% open and honest with the community.
Speaking of the community, a lot of people were highly triggered by my last post. Even had some ad hominem personal attacks! Want to start by restating my main points and clear up some things.
The Issue with Splinterlands
Splinterlands' marketing points of emphasis include the high amount of daily activity and the warm and welcoming community (see the fan fiction, drawings, etc). The part they don't share is these numbers are fake. The game is dominated by botnets and power whales. In fact, a large majority of the player base are estimated to be bots/multi-accounts. None of their key metrics are real/honest.
Whales are strong in all games. But the whale power in this one is extra strong due to all of the botting plus insider corruption. Many of the top whales actually work for the company.
Side note: Many industries prevent employees from using the product. I remember in mobile gaming there were big scandals when it was discovered that company insiders were high on the leaderboards. My take: employees should never be the top whales. There is a blatant conflict of interest! The SPL team could have done all sorts of shady things for their employees and who would bother to track the chain and find out?
Recently SPL used their fake numbers as pretext to justify releasing 15m Chaos Legion packs ($60 Million). They did this knowing it would tank the market value of cards. If 15m packs tank all assets X%, but a more reasonable print would tank Y%, then X-Y% is the amount SPL stole from community assets. It goes straight to the company as $4 per pack.
SPL has sold out its players every step of the way, always taking the quick buck. I've worked for many scumbag corporations. I know scumbags when I see them. Even the scumbags don't go as far as to attack player assets, lie in marketing, and profit from bot rings. Be very careful.
Also let's clear a few things up:
I was a really big SPL fan. I started this blog as "Road to Champion" intending to play competitively. I did not come in to make a quick buck.
I'm fortunate to be in a life position where large dollar losses won't hurt me. Others are not. This isn't about me. This is about players being misled and cheated.
I'm mainly writing these to help the community avoid getting scammed even though it costs me time and money.
How Splinterlands might Play Out
1. The Bull Case
There are definitely some catalysts for explosive growth. Other than the lying and cheating, I actually like SPL's strategy. They're pretending to be the biggest game so they can latch onto the mainstream and get good press.
Unfortunately each day we stray further from the light. SPS is in the dumps. The recent roadmap stopped the bleeding for now. But each day that passes like this makes it less likely SPL will regain momentum.
Sidenote #2: A lot of shills treat it as given that 1) packs will sell out at $4 and 2) this game will pump again like it did the first time. How many crypto/NFT projects do you know that faded into irrelevance and came back strong? Why are these givens? I will eat my words if the general sale packs sell out quick.
Sidenote #3: Another thing the shills miss is there is a large opportunity cost to holding your assets in a sunk wasteland like this one while waiting for it to moon. Other cryptos are mooning so you're losing a lot. If cryptos tank hard, all NFTS will suffer. Take it from someone holding a bunch of SPL cards nobody wants to buy. You do not want to see full NFT winter.
So in the bull scenario the team finds the catalysts. Interest will surge. Even then, the game will never hit critical mass due to all of the botting. But I think this one ends with everyone dumping SPS at some peak after it moons. Hopefully we make a good amount 😅
2. The Dump
When things go bad the insiders will dump. They took the weak $3.6M in investment money earlier and sold out SPS for it a bit. It's kind of biting the price right now. And now they're trying to take $60m from the Chaos Legion packs. This game is basically musical chairs. Don't get stopped holding the bag. Watch this blog for when the whales move 😉
3. The Slide into Irrelevance
This was my least likely scenario coming in. I wouldn't have even dreamed of it prior to CL. But with each day that passes with SPS at $0.23 and weak Market Cap, this scenario gets more and more likely. You have to ask yourself what SPL offers against the best NFT games out there and the best NFT games yet to come.
WHALE WATCH Update
If I have time later I might track when different assets are moving.
The founders are just logging in and collecting stuff.
The employees are also just collecting/renting and staying quiet.
The top guildmasters are just renting and staying quiet.
I track two high level players: jacekw and bubke. I don't know their backgrounds but they seem legit. I'm hoping they are clean heroes we can admire. jacekw The GOAT is selling a lot of Chaos Legion cards on the market.
Sidenote #4: As a Silver player, I was highly disappointed to find out that the leaderboard is dominated by bots. One of the few legitimate players at the top, Kira1995, is a Splinterlands employee. At Gold you have Byzantinist/ByzantineKitty who also work for Splinterlands holding $8M+ in assets. Do you want to compete against bots or employees? Take your pick.
News and Notes
Bookmark @splinterlands so you never miss important news.
SPL released a roadmap for SPS once SPS started dumping. I was not impressed. But again, I think there are definitely catalysts for SPS to moon in 2022. It's also clearl the team wants to pump SPS so they will do their best. I'm long SPS.
I don't think holding DEC is a good idea. I'd rather hold it in assets if I believe in the game. DEC has very odd (manipulated) price fluctuations and will crash hard. Read between the lines with Matt's most recent comments on SPS/DEC and the company does not want DEC to be high.
Would also suggest you read the Town Hall summaries and the AMAs. I'm going to avoid discussing the most recent one I will just sound like a hater. This quote made me gag though ""People are the value. It's not just people are the value that we are going to extract, it is people are the value and that is why it matters that we take care of them""
I will sort out the previous giveaways from Road to CHAMPION before my next post. Sorry about the delay.